It costs too much: Russians have become a third less likely to raise salaries
In the first quarter of 2026, employers raised salaries to Russians by a third less frequently than in the same period last year, Izvestia found out. Most often, earnings increased by 10%. This trend is linked to economic uncertainty, declining demand in a number of industries, and the need for companies to optimize costs, experts say. In their opinion, the trend will continue. At the same time, many organizations index salaries in the autumn period, and then it is worth waiting for the main increases.
How did the salaries of Russians change in early 2026
Only 3% of Russians received both a new position and a salary increase in the first quarter of 2026, according to a study by the services "Work.<url>" and "Part-time job" (Izvestia has it). At the same time, only the salary of 10% increased, which is one third less than it was for the same period in 2025 (14%).
Most often (in 67% of cases), earnings were raised by 10%. Almost one in four added 20%, according to the survey. An increase in income from 30 to 50% was noted by 7% of employees, and only 1% of respondents had their salary increased by more than one and a half times.
The slowdown in growth began last year and is now continuing, said Viktor Lyashok, senior researcher at the INSAP Center of the IPEI Presidential Academy. As the fiscal burden increased and the economy cooled, companies switched to austerity mode, he explained.
— Now the staff of the enterprises is well formed, the employees have a decent income level. In this regard, salary growth at the beginning of the year is low and most of it is among specialists who do not hold senior positions, and not even at the middle level," said Yulia Kovalenko, Deputy Head of the Higher School of Economics of Moscow Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Some industries, such as ferrous metallurgy, entered a technical recession in 2025, added Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At the beginning of last year, the financial results of large exporting companies deteriorated against the background of lower prices for raw materials and the simultaneous strengthening of the ruble.
In 2026, amid the conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil jumped sharply. This should support the shares of Russian exporting companies, Izvestia wrote earlier. In general, higher oil and gas prices are expected this year, which may contribute to stronger financial results for oil and gas companies, Natalia Milchakova noted. This may affect the growth of salaries in this area.
However, a number of factors are weighing on the profitability of other sectors.
— Still high interest rates on business loans continue to limit enterprises' access to debt financing. The impact of the introduction of artificial intelligence on the reduction, if not of staff, then the hiring of new employees, mainly in "routine" professions, cannot be excluded," concluded Natalia Milchakova.
The Ministry of Energy told Izvestia that the agency will clarify estimates on the main macro indicators, including the dynamics of wage growth, in the scenario conditions of the forecast. They will be submitted to the government in April.
Which areas have the biggest salary increases?
In the first quarter, the median salary offered in vacancies in Russia was 86.2 thousand rubles, reported in hh.ru .
The median salary conditionally divides employees into two equal groups: half receive more than this amount, the rest receive less.
Compared to the same period last year, the median increased by 13%. The most noticeable growth occurred among welders (the difference in absolute figures from last year was 148.1 thousand rubles), installers (+64.7 thousand rubles), heads of development teams (+58 thousand), geologists (almost +50 thousand) and technical writers (+40.7 thousand).
At the same time, the most significant slowdown in wage growth is noted in the IT sector: the dynamics is only 5.6% per year, Superjob reported. At the same time, the need for qualified personnel in the manufacturing industry, IT, and the financial sector will continue, experts say.
In general, the increase in salaries still exceeds inflation, Superjob recalled. By the end of January 2026, it was 4.87% in Moscow and 6% in Russia.
Will salaries be raised further
In the second quarter, a third of Russians surveyed expect a 10% increase in wages, and 27% expect a 20% increase. In the absence of an expected increase, 41% of respondents plan to start looking for a new job, and 14% of survey participants plan to find a part-time job. 6% are ready to increase the intensity of work or try to exceed current plans. Another quarter (23%) have not yet decided on an action plan, and 16% of respondents do not intend to take any steps to receive a raise, the study says.
The slowdown in wage growth is likely to continue, Tatiana Ushkats, an expert at the Economics faculty of the Patrice Lumumba RUDN University, expects. This is influenced by the state of the global economy, sanctions and domestic consumer demand. If inflation starts to outpace wage growth, then real incomes of the population will continue to stagnate, she believes.
In real terms, salaries may even start to decline, admitted Viktor Lyashok from the Presidential Academy. It is unlikely that employers will start laying off employees en masse. More often than not, organizations resort to reducing bonuses and bonuses, and in some industries, to transferring staff to part—time work. However, with the acceleration of economic growth, the labor market situation should quickly return to normal, he concluded.
— At the same time, in order to retain employees, companies are forced to introduce new motivation tools: flexible hours, remote work, an expanded social package and career prospects. Among the risks are the growth of payments "in earnest" and increasing inequality between industries where salaries can grow faster than the market, — said Tatiana Ushkats.
However, we must not forget that many organizations index salaries in the autumn period, so the main increases should be expected at this time, said Yulia Kovalenko from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. However, there will be no such growth as in previous years — until the economy as a whole stabilizes, she said.
Freedom Finance Global forecasts that nominal salaries in Russia will increase by an average of 4-5% this year compared to 2025.
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