Salary milestone: how will the minimum wage grow in the coming years
By 2030, the minimum wage is planned to be increased by at least 8000 rubles, said Yaroslav Nilov, head of the State Duma Committee on Labor, Social Policy and Veterans' Affairs. At the same time, Russian regions will retain the right to set their own minimum income threshold for employees, which may be higher than the federal level. Izvestia investigated how an increase in the minimum wage could affect the labor market, the level of employment and the financial burden on employers, why regions are given the opportunity to set a higher minimum wage and which regions of the Russian Federation are likely to use this right most actively.
Improving conditions
Vladimir Smirnov, Acting General Director of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, recalled that in 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to increase the minimum wage to 35 thousand rubles by 2030. At the same time, the minimum wage should grow faster than the subsistence minimum of the working-age population, and from 2025 its level cannot be lower than 48% of the median salary for the previous year.
Starting from January 1, 2026, the minimum wage is 27,093 rubles. According to the expert, its increase directly improved the wages of about 4.6 million workers, and also indirectly pushed wages above the minimum level due to the need to maintain wage differences.
An increase in the minimum wage usually has a positive effect on the labor market, creating additional incentives for employment, especially in conditions of high demand for workers. At the same time, regions can set their own minimum wage level through agreements between authorities, employers and trade unions, but such agreements do not apply to all organizations.
The point of reference
The minimum wage actually serves as a basic guideline for the formation of wage funds and generally affects approaches to determining employee incomes, Yulia Kovalenko, PhD in Economics, Deputy Head of the Higher School of Economics of Moscow (Faculty) of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, reminded Izvestia.
"For a government focused on social support for the population, regular increases in this indicator are important, because through indexation it is possible to promote the well—being of citizens," she said.
If we consider the situation at the regional level, according to her, the differences in the minimum wage between the subjects of the country are natural. They are explained by the unequal cost of goods and services in different parts of the state. The price is largely influenced by the natural and climatic features of the territories, as well as the features of transport accessibility and logistics.
Therefore, in some regions it is acceptable to set a higher minimum income threshold. At the same time, the key principle remains that the regional indicator should not be lower than the federal one, but can only exceed it.
— In addition, the minimum wage is associated with a number of social benefits: when it increases, such payments automatically increase, — the expert explained. — This, in turn, contributes to improving the standard of living of the population and expands people's opportunities to purchase necessary goods and services.
According to Sergey Ryabev, an expert in the direction of the "Popular Front. Analytics", a gradual increase in the minimum wage until 2030 can be considered as a balanced decision aimed at increasing the well-being of citizens and supporting domestic demand. At the same time, the ability to set an increased minimum wage at the regional level allows you to take into account the specifics of the economy of individual territories. In large cities and high-income regions, this indicator is usually higher, while in regions that depend on federal aid, the national minimum is more often maintained.
The expert recalls that the regional minimum wage level is formed on the basis of an agreement between three parties — the authorities of the subject, employers' associations and trade unions. He calls the support of small businesses during the period of adaptation an important task in the implementation of this policy, so that an increase in social standards does not lead to a reduction in official employment.
Changing the market
According to Dmitry Zemlyansky, director of the Scientific Research Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics at the IPEI RANEPA, in theory, an increase in the minimum wage can stimulate employment: a higher level of pay can attract people to the labor market for whom previous conditions were not attractive enough.
— However, the current situation in Russia is different. The economy is already facing a pronounced shortage of workers, and a significant portion of the potential workforce is already involved in labor activity. Under these conditions, the minimum wage is adjusted following inflation rather than acting as a factor of employment expansion, the expert believes.
In addition, the impact of this indicator on the labor market is gradually decreasing: if in 2020 the minimum wage was about 24% of the average nominal salary, now its share has decreased to about 22%.
According to him, the most noticeable consequences of raising the minimum wage may occur in areas and regions where there is a high proportion of low-paying jobs and where businesses operate with low profitability. These are primarily retail trade and agriculture, as well as budget sectors such as education, healthcare and culture. The tourism industry, as well as small businesses in general, may have a certain impact. Employers in these sectors will have to increase salaries for a significant number of employees, which will lead to higher costs and may worsen the financial situation of companies. In such conditions, the expansion of shadow employment is not excluded.
At the regional level, the most significant impacts may be on areas with relatively low wages, a significant share of agriculture, trade and tourism, as well as a high level of informal employment. The expert considers the republics of the North Caucasus, the less economically developed regions of the Volga region, as well as certain territories in the south of Western Siberia and the Far East to be such regions.
Domestic demand
According to Sergey Grishunin, Managing Director of the rating service of the National Rating Agency, the planned increase in the minimum wage by 2030 is a timely and economically justified measure. In conditions of a steady shortage of personnel, such a step can support domestic demand, reduce the number of workers earning incomes below the subsistence level, and partially reduce incentives for moving into shadow employment.
At the same time, a certain inflationary effect is possible, primarily in industries where the proportion of low-paid labor is high. These include, for example, retail trade, housing and communal services, and government agencies. For employers in these sectors, increased labor costs with limited ability to offset costs through price increases can lead to lower business profitability. Therefore, an important condition remains to coordinate the growth rate of the minimum wage with an increase in labor productivity.
The expert also noted that the differences in the regional minimum wage level are due to objective economic factors. The cost of living, labor efficiency, and the situation on local employment markets differ markedly in different regions of the country, so a single federal indicator is not able to fully account for this difference.
According to NRA forecasts, Moscow, St. Petersburg, the territories of the Far North, as well as the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District will use the opportunity to set a higher regional minimum most actively.
— In these regions, there are increasing coefficients and traditionally there is high competition for employees, — Sergey Grishunin clarified in an interview with Izvestia. — For regions that are heavily dependent on federal support, the use of such a tool is limited, since an increase in the minimum wage leads to additional expenditures of their budgets for the maintenance of state and municipal organizations.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Labor, but no response had been received by the time the material was published.
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