Perestroika of the century: Oreshkin predicted the death of traditional banks
Banks in the traditional sense must die, said Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy head of the presidential administration, at the Tolk forum. The same American financial system devours 2% of global GDP, which is too much for managing funds, he believes. But the Russian system is one of the most efficient in the world. The competition is now shifting from data ownership to the quality of algorithms and digital services. And the platform economy is not only growing, but is already making it easier to maintain low inflation in the country, said Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. How to change the list of systemically important banks and why traditional antimonopoly approaches no longer work — in the Izvestia article.
What will happen to the Russian banking system
Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, made one of the loudest statements at the Tolk forum on April 1. He said that traditional banking in Russia should "die."
"If you look at the American financial system, it eats up 2% of global GDP. This is too big a payment for humanity for a fairly simple money management service," Maxim Oreshkin emphasized.
According to him, the Russian financial system is one of the most efficient in the world and does not absorb as much money from society and the economy as the American or European models. In addition, the deputy head of the presidential administration criticized the high salaries in this sector. According to Oreshkin, he earned a lot when he worked in a bank, and did not understand why he earned more than an engineer inventing an airplane or a car.
— The traditional business model is really bursting at the seams. But neither Sberbank nor VTB will close. The point is that the structure itself will look different," Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, explained to Izvestia.
The global market for non-banks (digital financial organizations without branches) reached $143 billion by 2025 and continues to accelerate, he said. Russia has gone its own way. Here, digital banking has developed within large structures, the expert noted.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated at the forum that the subsidiaries of financial organizations of marketplaces in two to three years may receive the status of systemically important (NWCO).
A systemically important credit institution cannot be considered as such if its assets are less than 500 billion rubles. It should also have a decisive impact on a number of sectors of the economy or the banking market. And also to be significant for the regions, said independent economist Andrei Barkhota. At the same time, marketplace banks are gaining more and more audience.
Elvira Nabiullina previously suggested thinking about the possibility of providing financial services in rural areas, including through points of issue of orders (PVZ) marketplaces. According to her, this will increase the availability of financial services.
There is a possibility that the recognition of subsidiaries of NWCO marketplaces is also necessary in order to introduce special regulation for them, Andrei Barkhota admitted.
— The financial system of marketplaces has gained its market share quite powerfully and quickly, not only for banking, but also for MFIs. So far, this is a "one—product" organization, but it's more a matter of time. In the future, there is a possibility that they will have offices and a wide range of their own products," says financial adviser and Founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin.
The possible recognition of banks as systemically important is a logical result of the consolidation that is already taking place: large ones are growing, small ones are leaving the market, Denis Astafyev from SharesPro said. Marketplaces account for 81% of all online orders in the country, and their financial subsidiaries handle tens of millions of transactions, he noted.
According to Maxim Oreshkin, the competition is now shifting from data ownership to the quality of algorithms and digital services. It is online access that is now becoming the main one for users.
Earlier, the head of the Central Bank called for adding all credit institutions to the white lists of the Ministry of Finance, otherwise competition is disrupted. Russians face the limitations of the mobile Internet from time to time. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would last "as long as security measures are necessary."
Whitelists in Russia are lists of Internet resources that can be accessed even with communication restrictions. There is no general complete white list of services on the Ministry of Digital Services website, but there are first, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth lists.
How the platform economy is developing in the Russian Federation
The platform economy makes it easier to maintain low inflation in the country, Elvira Nabiullina said at the forum. The fact is that the supply of goods that are sold online is becoming more elastic, it responds better to changes in demand.
Maxim Oreshkin, in turn, said that this system also helps to reduce structural unemployment. On the other hand, traditional antitrust approaches do not work here.
— You can't say: let's make 10 platforms in the taxi market, and they will all compete with each other. The effectiveness of such a system will be less," he stressed.
According to Oreshkin, regulators around the world are faced with the task of finding a balance between preventing "platform feudalism" and maintaining motivation for development.
Indeed, marketplace users have the opportunity to receive goods and services cheaper, which may affect the reduction of inflation, said Andrei Barkhota. And in general, platform systems in Russia are developing rapidly, as evidenced by the growth of their profits.
At the same time, their penetration into the banking sector, retail, insurance and services will increase, according to Alexey Rodin from Rodin.Capital. By 2027, the volume of the platform economy in Russia may reach 14-15 trillion rubles, he said. In 2024, its contribution was 9.25 trillion rubles, or 6.4% of GDP.
The federal law on the Platform Economy, which comes into force in October 2026, is the first step towards making this growth manageable and fair for everyone, Denis Astafyev noted. The document establishes uniform rules for marketplace platforms and other large online platforms. For example, the platform operator will be required to check the information in the product cards and prevent products that do not meet the requirements from being sold.
The topic of calculations was also discussed at the forum. The Central Bank has not yet recorded the trend of switching from non-cash payment methods to cash due to tax changes, said Alla Bakina, head of the Department of the national payment system of the Bank of Russia. The basic VAT rate has increased from 20% to 22% since January 1 of this year. The threshold for small business revenue under the simplified taxation system has also decreased to 20 million rubles. Alla Bakina added that the Central Bank will continue to monitor these indicators.
As Izvestia wrote, the rules of money transfers have also changed since April 1. The authorities have tightened control over small businesses and the self-employed. When making transactions, they now need to specify the recipient's full name, and in the purpose of the payment — detailed information about goods and services. The Federal Tax Service and the Central Bank will also have permanent access to information about Russian transfers in order to "whitewash" the economy.
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