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- The recovery is difficult: there is a high probability of an economic recession in Russia before 2027
The recovery is difficult: there is a high probability of an economic recession in Russia before 2027
Until January 2027, the risks of a recession are not excluded in Russia, experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP) believe. A very slow decline in the key rate may lead to this: economists polled by Izvestia predict a step down by only 0.5 percentage points to 15% at the March meeting. One of the signs of a recession is an increased risk of a systemic banking crisis, with the sector's troubled assets already exceeding 10%. Although the Central Bank records a deterioration in the quality of the portfolio, it does not consider it dramatic. Analysts believe that a recession remains possible, but only if several unfavorable factors are combined. What will support economic growth in the near future is in the Izvestia article.
Is a recession of the Russian economy possible
The probability of an economic recession in Russia is now high. This is stated in the latest analytical note "What the leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks show" by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP). Experts define a recession as a decline in GDP over the course of 12 months. At the same time, as the authors emphasized, we are talking about a high probability, but still not about an unambiguous outcome.
Last year, the physical volume of GDP increased by about 1%. This is almost five times less than in 2024, when economic growth was about 4.9%. The drawdown occurred precisely in the last month of last year. If we take the period from December 2024 to November 2025, the economy grew by 1.3%.
CIACP experts analyzed the consolidated leading indicator (SOI). This is actually a thermometer that shows how likely a recession is becoming in the next 12 months, explained Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. When the value exceeds the threshold of 0.18, the alert system raises a "red flag". According to the most recent data from the CMACP, in December last year this indicator was almost three times higher than the critical threshold of 0.49.
That is, the SOYBEAN is sending a signal that the Russian economy is highly likely to enter a recession this year, the authors of the note noted. For this to happen in 2026, it is enough for GDP to fall by 1% in the first half of the year.
In addition, the indicators have been signaling for the fourth month that the recession may be protracted (that is, it may last more than a year), the report says. However, in order to draw definitive conclusions about the duration, the figures must deviate from the threshold for 12 months.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy about whether a recession is possible.
What factors can lead to an economic recession?
Currently, economic growth is negatively affected by an increase in the likelihood of a banking crisis and a decrease in the current account balance (the difference between exports and imports), the CMACP article notes. The effect has also decreased, due to which the economy continued to grow by inertia, after growing by 4.9% in 2024.
The share of problem assets in the banking sector exceeded 10%. However, this is masked by the intensive restructuring of overdue loans and the dominance of state-owned credit institutions, so the crisis is taking place in a latent form, the authors of the article note. The editorial board sent a request to the CMACP.
The press service of the Central Bank stressed that they do not record the banking crisis. Last year, there was some deterioration in the quality of the portfolio, but it cannot be called dramatic. Moreover, non—performing loans are well covered by reserves and collateral (corporate loans — by more than 50%, and retail loans - by about 80%), they added.
At the same time, the share of overdue loans in the total portfolio of banks remains small, and the requirements for borrowers have become much tougher in the last two years, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, recalled. To a greater extent, the slowdown in the economy and even its entry into the recession stage can be negatively affected by a high key, the expert noted.
As Izvestia reported earlier, at a meeting on March 20, the regulator is likely to reduce the rate to 15%. However, this is still a high level for both citizens and companies. The optimal business rate of 11-12% can be expected only by the end of 2026, the expert noted.
At the same time, it is not only the high key interest rate that slows down economic growth. There is also a shortage of personnel, which will continue in 2026, Olga Gogaladze said. Fiscal policy has also become more conservative — spending growth has slowed down, and spending money to support the economy is no longer working at the same pace, she is sure.
In addition, the investment pause is slowing down GDP, says Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. Investments in fixed assets went into negative territory in the third quarter of last year (-3.1%), and with an average key rate of 13.5–14.5% in 2026, which the Central Bank expects, there is no reason to expect a quick reversal, the expert added.
A recession will become more likely with a sharp drop in oil prices or with the introduction of new large-scale sanctions, says financial adviser and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. This is not so expected yet, as oil is becoming more expensive due to the conflict in the Middle East, and sanctions have exhausted themselves due to the difficult economic situation in Western countries.
That is, a recession remains possible, but with a combination of several unfavorable factors — a new round of inflation forcing the Central Bank to take a break in rate cuts, or a collapse in oil prices, emphasized Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets.
What will support economic growth in 2026
The rise in commodity prices allows the government's financial sector to partially compensate for budget losses, Denis Astafyev believes. Russian Urals crude has grown by more than 70% over the past three weeks, trading above $100 per barrel on March 19.
In 2026, the economy will also be pulled up by companies related to government procurement and the military-industrial complex (MIC), Olga Gogaladze believes. In addition, the driver will be industries that are focused on domestic demand from the population, which remains high due to rising wages.
An active reduction in the key rate can prevent a recession, Natalia Milchakova is sure. But if the Russian economy is going to grow, it won't be by more than 1% yet. A more noticeable and sustained growth is possible only by the second half of 2027.
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