To the last: the EU insists on the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine
Brussels is not interested in ending the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The day before, a delegation led by the head of the European Diplomacy, Kai Kallas, arrived in Kiev. She said she expects to approve a loan of €90 billion at the next meeting of the European Council. Experts believe that Ukraine will face a social crisis in the summer due to a lack of funds to pay pensions and benefits. In addition to loans, Kiev may also lose funding from the EU budget — Slovakia is against it. In these circumstances, Vladimir Zelensky has tried to find new sources of funds in the Middle East, but so far without success.
EU delegation's visit to Kyiv
The European Union is betting on the continuation of the military conflict in Ukraine, so it is not abandoning the idea of allocating a loan of € 90 billion to Kiev. This was stated to Izvestia by Vladislav Maslennikov, Director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
— Such an urgent desire to finance Ukraine as soon as possible shows the EU's disinterest in ending hostilities and a negotiated settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Most of this loan, two thirds, is intended for military purposes," the diplomat stressed.
According to him, the United States shifted the main responsibility for the Ukrainian project, including financing, to its European partners.
— The European Union has no other money, because they failed to steal our frozen assets. Even these funds for Ukraine are borrowed by the member countries under budget guarantees. The EU leadership is obsessed with the idea of giving Ukraine a loan as soon as possible, despite the opinion of some member states," Maslennikov said.
On March 31, the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, and the European foreign ministers arrived in Kiev. However, it is far from complete: Politico writes about the participation of only 12 EU foreign ministers out of 27. In the capital of Ukraine, they held an "informal meeting of the EU Council," though without any decisions. In practical terms, the envoys from Brussels brought only energy equipment for the railways to Ukraine.
— We have certain obstacles on the way both regarding the 20th package of sanctions and the allocation of a loan. Work continues to overcome these obstacles. But unfortunately, I don't have any good news at the moment, and I can't announce that this loan will be granted," Callas said at a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga.
Negotiations during the G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting
The head of the European Diplomacy arrived in Kiev after a quarrel with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which took place at a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in France. Ukraine was the reason for it: the United States had previously demanded that Kiev withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the areas they occupied in Donbass in exchange for security guarantees. Zelensky rejected the proposal, and Kallas called for increased pressure on Moscow.
At a meeting with European diplomats, Zelensky said that Ukraine was offering an Easter truce. According to him, Kiev is allegedly waiting for the reaction of Moscow and Washington. The Kremlin previously reported that they did not see a clearly formulated initiative in the words of the head of the Kiev regime. Last year, it was Vladimir Putin who announced a cease-fire for the Easter celebrations. Ukraine then repeatedly violated the silence regime, the Ministry of Defense reported.
Back in February, Hungary blocked a loan to Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia, since Kiev stopped oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline at the end of January. Slovakia also supports Budapest's position. After the government of Andrei Babis came to power, the Czech Republic also refused to participate in financing the loan to Ukraine.
The visit of the European delegation to Kiev is intended to show that, at least for the EU member states, Ukraine remains a priority and support will be provided to it, as before, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at Valdai, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— We do not know when the loan will be allocated and which mechanism will eventually be used. Now this problem is becoming even more complicated than it was a month ago. But from the point of view of the EU leadership, the commitments have been made, and they must be fulfilled in any case," the expert believes.
In his opinion, Ukraine will face serious problems in the summer, related not only to the shortage of weapons, but also to the possibility of serious social and managerial crises. The reason is that the state apparatus is funded by Western aid. Therefore, it is extremely important for Europe and for Kiev that this issue somehow finds an adequate solution within one or two months.
By the way, Zelensky went on a Middle East tour at the end of March. In a few days, he visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan. According to The Wall Street Journal, the head of the Kiev regime is trying to convince the rich Arabian monarchies that they and Ukraine allegedly have common enemies — Iran and Russia. According to Zelensky, he agreed with the leaders of these countries on cooperation in the military sphere, and even signed defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani meets with President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky in Doha, Qatar
However, the Gulf states have no time to deal with Ukraine now — Iran's ongoing attacks on infrastructure are exacerbating the energy crisis. Moreover, they are already reportedly facing the risk of a shortage of air defense missiles. At the same time, even the Western media drew attention to the inappropriateness of Zelensky's trip. For example, the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung recalled the recent corruption scandals in Kiev.
Where does Ukraine get its funding from
In the current situation, there is growing dissatisfaction in the EU with the commitments that Brussels has undertaken. Slovakia opposes financial assistance to Ukraine from the European Union budget, Deputy Speaker of the Slovak parliament from the ruling party Tibor Gaspar told Izvestia.
— The Slovak Republic does not provide military assistance to Ukraine. She opposes the provision of financial assistance from the EU budget. The prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia voted against granting a loan of €90 billion," Gaspar said.
He also said that Bratislava "stands for joint action within the EU and has been emphasizing the need for a diplomatic solution to the conflict for a long time." Slovakia is coordinating with its allies to find long-term solutions to ensure stability and security in the region.
Meanwhile, Kiev is running out of money to finance military spending. The country's budget deficit has already reached $52 billion, while at least $120 billion is needed for combat operations, Bloomberg writes. Just on March 30, the European Commission approved a €1.5 billion program aimed at supporting the European and Ukrainian defense industries.
In total, since 2022, Brussels has allocated €195 billion to Ukraine in the form of humanitarian, military and financial assistance. There are two main channels. The first is direct support from the EU budget, which amounted to €88.6 billion. It includes subsidies to cover the Ukrainian budget deficit (€43 billion) and the payment of pensions and benefits through the Ukraine Facility Fund (€36.7 billion).
The second way is loans and guarantees from the EU and European banks, which have their own characteristics. When the decision was made in December to provide Ukraine with a loan of €90 billion for 2026-2027, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, did not specify where these funds would come from. The draft text of the summit conclusions states that the money will be received through borrowing on the capital markets provided by the EU budget. Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia refused to participate in this. Ukraine will be responsible for repayment of the principal amount, and interest will be covered from the EU budget, but this should not affect contributions from Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
Slovakia is concerned that future interest costs or possible arrears on the principal debt, if Ukraine fails, will fall on the general budget on which they depend, Sergei Tolkachev, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
"This does not mean that their national budgets will directly pay this loan, but they may suffer indirectly if the overall EU budget is depleted or requires additional contributions due to this operation," the expert believes.
Anna Gamilovskaya, PhD in Economics, also draws attention to this. According to her, with a decrease in the amount of funds in the EU budget due to obligations to pay interest on Ukraine's debt, countries will receive less funding for equalization programs for economic development and other incentive measures. Therefore, any increase in the expenses of the EU general budget becomes economically unprofitable for Hungary and Slovakia.
Brussels still hopes to get approval of the loan to Ukraine, the main hopes are pinned on the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the parliamentary elections on April 12. But even if the loan is approved, Kiev is unlikely to repay it.
"Therefore, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, as EU member states and contributors to its budget, in any case, even if they refuse to participate in this loan today, will formally make payments on it simply upon making contributions to the union's budget," says economist Mikhail Khachaturian.
The issue of blocking new financing for Ukraine and sanctions against the Russian Federation is closely related to the supply of oil through Druzhba. This is an extremely important issue for Hungary and Slovakia, since both countries are landlocked, so prices for them will be even higher against the background of the conflict in the Middle East. But in Kiev, it seems, they decided to go all-in and break the resistance of Bratislava and Budapest. However, Ukraine's time is running out: if Viktor Orban and Robert Fico hold out for a few more months, Kiev's funds will be exhausted.
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