A single cliff: the split over energy and Ukraine has intensified in the EU
There is a split in the European Union in the context of the energy crisis, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The differences were evident not only at the EU summit, but also at the G7 foreign ministers' meeting. As a result, there was no general broad communique due to disputes over Ukraine, Iran and energy. At the same time, earlier the European Commission postponed new steps to abandon Russian oil, and Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever admitted that Europe would have to negotiate with Russia in the future for the sake of cheap energy. Experts believe that in the context of the crisis, we should expect a slowdown in the EU's anti-Russian initiatives.
The energy crisis has intensified disputes in the EU
Europe may be facing one of the most serious challenges since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. The energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East is increasing pressure on European governments and exacerbating divisions within the EU.
— The split [in the EU] is already evident. In fact, the only thing they (Europeans. — Ed.) demonstrated unity at the last summit, which is an unwillingness to join military actions around Iran. There were no decisions on either energy or Ukraine. This, in general, is an indicator of a split," Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
Meeting of the G7 Foreign Ministers
A similar problem has manifested itself not only within the European Union, but also at the G7 level. Following the meeting of the G7 foreign Ministers, which took place on March 26-27, the general final communique was not published. According to media reports, the allies actually abandoned this idea in order not to bring out the differences on Iran, Ukraine and American politics in general.
A week earlier, European leaders also failed to work out a common line on the same issues. They only acknowledged that the escalation around Iran is hitting energy security and prices within the union. Since the beginning of the war in the Middle East, European gas prices have increased by more than 70%. Energy prices are rising primarily due to threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. At a closed-door meeting with diplomats on March 26, Brussels called on EU countries to start pumping gas into underground storage facilities as early as April: they are now only 28% full.
While Brussels was trying to work out a common response, individual countries began to act independently. On March 20, Spain approved a package of 80 anti-crisis measures worth €5 billion, including household assistance and lower electricity taxes for energy-intensive industries. Italy has started negotiations with the United States, Azerbaijan and Algeria on gas substitution from Qatar. Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Piketto-Fratin bluntly acknowledged that the blow to Qatar's LNG export infrastructure had had a "devastating" effect on prices.
On the eve of the summit, Ursula von der Leyen, in a letter to EU leaders, said that the war over Iran had already increased the EU's bill for oil and gas imports by €6 billion. In response, the European Commission called for expanding state support for industry, adjusting the carbon quota proposal and taking other targeted measures, but deliberately did not go for the most radical options — for example, it did not propose a ceiling on gas prices. At the same time, disputes over energy within the EU manifested themselves even then: Italy and a number of other countries demanded to temporarily relax the rules of the carbon market — to reduce charges for carbon dioxide emissions for power plants and enterprises, as this affects the cost of energy. The Netherlands and Sweden opposed it.
Disagreements over Ukraine
The general disagreements within Europe inevitably affected the topic of Russia. The European Commission has postponed a new bill that was supposed to consolidate the complete refusal to import Russian oil. The document was expected on April 15, but this date has disappeared from the updated legislative schedule. As previously reported to Izvestia in the European Commission, "planning is indicative," and the dates themselves may vary. At the same time, Brussels continues to declare its commitment to phasing out Russian energy resources.
Leading representatives of EU institutions have repeatedly made it clear that a revision of the parameters of energy cooperation with Russia is impossible even in the event of a further worsening of the crisis, said Egor Sergeev, a researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
"Another thing is that we can expect a slowdown in some initiatives, for example, in terms of complete bans on fuel supplies, as well as temporary relief for individual member countries," he added.
Hungary also played a role in this. Prime Minister Viktor Orban is blocking the allocation of a loan of €90 billion to Kiev. He explains his decision by the situation around the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplied Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Deliveries through the pipeline have been interrupted since January 27. Kiev claims that the pipeline was damaged as a result of a Russian strike, while Budapest does not accept this version and directly accuses Ukraine of political blocking of transit.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
The energy crisis also affects the EU's ability to support Ukraine, as it worsens the situation of European economies and at the same time increases the costs of the Ukrainian side itself, including for fuel and other critical resources, Egor Sergeyev added.
"The EU countries should rather expect self—interest-oriented behavior, attempts to protect national markets and reduce domestic costs," he said.
In these circumstances, cautious statements are increasingly being made in Europe about the need to maintain a channel of communication with Moscow in the future. On March 15, Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever said that Europe would have to negotiate with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine and regain access to cheap energy. According to him, many European leaders privately agree with this logic, although they do not speak about it publicly.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb also spoke about the possibility of a future dialogue with Moscow. Speaking at Chatham House on March 17, he admitted that Europe would eventually have to open channels of political communication with Russia, but stressed that such contact was possible only with a unified EU position.
Nevertheless, the official line of the EU remains unchanged, Sergeyev noted. According to him, the lack of relations with Russia in Brussels is still considered as a political principle, therefore, serious changes in this direction should not be expected.
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