Defeat Line: Israel expands control in Gaza
Israel is seeking to expand its control zone in the Gaza Strip, which now covers about 58% of the territory after the approval of the ceasefire agreement in October 2025. This was stated to Izvestia by the Fatah movement. According to the Palestinian side, this is facilitated by a shift in international attention to the escalation around Iran. In light of the ongoing fighting within Hamas, the political crisis is intensifying, leadership elections are dragging on, and disagreements about the future governance of Gaza are growing. The Jewish State, meanwhile, intends to seek the disarmament of the Palestinian factions in the exclave by both political and military means.
Israel shifts the line of control
In the context of the escalation around Iran, Israel can use the reduction of international pressure on it to strengthen its position in Gaza. According to Fatah, we are talking about the further expansion by the Jewish state of the extended control zone, which covers about 51 km from north to south of the exclave.
–– The goal is that Israel wants to consolidate the "yellow Line" and does not want to move to the second stage and retreat to the borders of June 4, 1967. And unfortunately, the war between Iran and the United States has allowed Israel to commit more hostile acts and attacks," Munzir al-Hayek, an official representative of the Fatah movement in the Gaza Strip, told Izvestia.
According to him, Israel is actually shifting the "yellow line" further to the west, satellite images record how concrete blocks and yellow markers were moved tens and hundreds of meters deep into Gaza.
— This led to the demolition of houses and displacement of residents. Israel is building additional fortifications, earthworks, and roads there. As a result, the controlled area is expanding beyond the original "yellow line," Munzir al-Hayek said.
The "Yellow Line" in the Gaza Strip is the demarcation line that the Israeli army established after the ceasefire agreement in October 2025. It runs along the eastern part of the Gaza Strip and marks the line to which Israeli troops have withdrawn. The depth of the zone is from 2 to 7 km, it covers about 58% of the territory of the exclave.
Fatah claims that after establishing control over the eastern part of the exclave, strikes continue in more densely populated areas. According to the movement, they often fall on residential buildings and places where civilians congregate, including temporary camps. As a result, according to Palestinian representatives, the number of civilian casualties is increasing. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, 673 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire was announced in October 2025.
The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip entered into force on October 10, 2025 and marked the beginning of the first phase of the peace plan of US President Donald Trump. The sides stopped the fighting, exchanged hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and opened humanitarian corridors.
The first phase ended in January 2026 after the return of the remains of the last Israeli hostage, and on January 14-16, the United States officially announced the transition to the second phase. It provides for the disarmament of Hamas, the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, the creation of a transitional technocratic administration to manage the exclave, the deployment of international stabilization forces and its large-scale reconstruction.
The Palestinian side also draws attention to the humanitarian dimension of what is happening. Fatah stressed that a combination of factors — the destruction of infrastructure, lack of food and water, lack of basic medical and educational services — creates a systemic crisis that increases pressure on the population. The movement believes that such tactics are aimed at creating conditions under which living in the exclave becomes impossible, which in the future may push residents to forced migration.
Mohammed Faraj, an analyst on political and strategic issues at the Lebanese Al Mayadeen TV channel, pointed out in a conversation with Izvestia that the Israeli leadership hoped to use the escalation around Iran to strengthen its position in the region and weaken the Palestinian factor. According to him, the stability of Tehran to a certain extent hinders the implementation of these plans, which is reflected in the dynamics of the conflict over Gaza. He also noted that the Palestinians perceive Iran's actions as support, since there are no real steps on the part of the international community.
As a result of the conflict, Hamas must step away from governance.
The internal Palestinian political dynamics is also escalating. Fatah insists on the need to transfer control of Gaza to the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian National Authority. They believe that Hamas should step aside as a result of the conflict.
Consultations are underway within Hamas on the future of the movement and its leadership. According to Arab media reports, the process of electing the head of the Politburo may be postponed due to the difficult situation. For about a year and a half, the so-called governing council has been making key decisions. In recent months, attempts have been made to step up the process of electing a new leader for the remainder of his term, but they are facing objective difficulties.
As orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia, there is indeed a certain internal crisis, including due to the cumulative effect of Israeli targeted liquidations. He stressed that at the same time, the overall stability of Hamas has significantly strengthened compared to the fall of 2025.
— The Palestinians were able to take control of some of the financial and political levers in the exclave and weaken the influence of other factions. Although they still do not bring their claims to power into the public field," says the orientalist.
In parallel, negotiations are continuing with the participation of Egyptian mediators and international representatives. The discussions focused on the observance of the ceasefire, the operation of the Rafah checkpoint, as well as the parameters of the future management of Gaza. Special attention is paid to the issue of the integration of Hamas personnel into the structures of the civil administration and law enforcement forces, which is considered as a possible element of the transition period.
The process of disarming Hamas has been put on pause
The issue of disarmament remains one of the most sensitive topics. Back in February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu estimated the number of machine guns in the hands of Hamas at 60,000. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, representatives of the movement were given a draft providing for the complete demilitarization of the sector, including all armed groups. In exchange, an amnesty is offered for the participants of these structures.
However, the movement sees such initiatives as a threat, not as a serious offer for negotiations. According to Hamas, the document ignores the political and national aspects of the conflict. They stressed that the issue of disarmament is usually considered as one of the last stages of any agreements, and not as an initial condition.
— The de facto process is on pause. The guarantors of disarmament are distracted by the Iranian-Israeli conflict and have little control over what is happening "on the ground," Leonid Tsukanov said.
He added that Israel has a reason to expand offensive operations in the Palestinian exclave, guided, among other things, by the doctrine of preventive defense. He also noted that, on the other hand, the Jewish state has no interest in opening a new front and spreading its forces even more: even for a limited military operation in Lebanon, the general staff needed an additional 400,000 reservists.
In Israel, in turn, they consistently declare their intention to dismantle the military and political infrastructure of Hamas and achieve the complete demilitarization of Gaza. Netanyahu stressed that this task remains key and can be achieved by both military and political means. According to him, only then can we proceed to the full-scale reconstruction of Gaza.
The discussion about its future is developing in the context of the promotion of the American post-war settlement plan. The document provides for the establishment of a transitional Palestinian authority, the disarmament of Hamas and the deployment of an international stabilization force. It is also planned to form a temporary mechanism for managing the sector with the participation of external actors. At the same time, the plan excludes the participation of Hamas in the future system of government, which remains one of the key points of disagreement.
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