Miscalculation: Israel has threatened military action in Gaza
Israel is preparing to resume attacks on Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip if the movement does not agree to disarm. As Deputy Speaker of the Knesset Yevgeny Sova explained to Izvestia, Donald Trump's plan to restore the exclave directly depends on the surrender of weapons by the militants. According to him, if Hamas does not do this voluntarily, the IDF will carry out the task. Meanwhile, the Palestinian movement is secretly determining a new leader, choosing between the "diplomat" Khaled Mashaal and the "radical" Khalil al-Hayya. Izvestia investigated why the interim head is being elected for only a year and what this will mean for the residents of Gaza.
Israel prepares for fighting in Gaza
While the international community is discussing the future reconstruction of the Gaza Strip under the auspices of the "Peace Council", nothing seems to be ready for this in the exclave itself. Israel may resume hostilities if Hamas does not agree to disarmament.
According to the plan of the American president, Hamas must be completely disarmed before the restoration of the exclave begins, says Yevgeny Sova, deputy speaker of the Knesset, a member of the Our Home Israel party. According to him, this plan was approved by the Israeli Government and remains the current basis for the settlement.
— If Hamas refuses to disarm on its own, then the only force that will have to do this is the IDF. Therefore, I would not rule out a force scenario," Evgeny Sova told Izvestia.
According to the Times of Israel, the Israeli army's Southern Command is already developing a series of operations in case of a political decision to forcibly disarm Hamas. The ceasefire plan reached in October 2025 with the mediation of the United States provided for the demilitarization of Gaza and the gradual withdrawal of the IDF, but the implementation mechanism remains unclear. There is growing confidence in Israeli circles that it will be impossible to deprive Hamas of weapons without military intervention.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on February 23 that the movement would receive an ultimatum on disarmament in the coming days. According to him, Israel ultimately intends to occupy the Gaza Strip and rebuild Jewish settlements in the coastal Palestinian territory.
However, he clarified that the deadline for the ultimatum would be "not very long" and the initiative came from Washington, not Israel. Last week, Yossi Fuchs, a senior adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said that Hamas had been given a 60-day deadline to disarm, and Israel was complying with this condition set by the White House.
Representatives of the Palestinian movement called the threats of using force "disregard for the efforts of the mediators." As Asharq Al-Awsat reported, citing sources in Hamas, negotiations are continuing, and compromises through intermediaries seem more realistic than a military solution, but the key priority remains ending the "violence" and withdrawing Israeli troops.
The scenario of external governance of the Gaza Strip is being increasingly discussed. The formation of the Palestinian technocrat committee for this purpose was announced on January 14, simultaneously with the announcement of the beginning of the second phase of the US peace plan. The Committee plans to create a new police force and recruit at least 5,000 officers to ensure order in Gaza in the next two months. However, while external players are discussing the transfer of the exclave under the control of the "committee of technocrats," Hamas is in no hurry to leave the political scene.
New Hamas leader may complicate peace settlement
The internal elections in Hamas are in the final stages. A new shura council (advisory body) has already been formed, consisting of more than 80 members, mostly religious scholars, as well as a new 18-seat politburo. Now the struggle for the key post of leader of the Politburo has unfolded between two of the most influential personalities — Khaled Mashaal and Khalil al-Haya.
According to media reports, the official result will be announced during the month of Ramadan. The purpose of these elections is to renew internal legitimacy and fill the leadership vacuum following the assassination by Israel of dozens of members of the Politburo, the Shura Council, and warlords.
Khaled Mashaal was born in 1956 in a village near Ramallah. In 1967, he and his family were exiled to Jordan, and then moved to Kuwait. While still at university, he led the student Islamic Bloc, and in 1987 became one of the founders of the Palestinian Student Group, which later transformed into Hamas.
In 1996, Mashaal became the head of the movement's politburo, and after the deaths of Hamas founders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abd-el-Aziz al-Rantisi, he actually became the main leader of the organization. However, for a long time he was in the Diaspora — in Damascus and Qatar, where he continued to manage the movement and coordinate its activities. In April 2021, he was officially elected head of Hamas in the Diaspora. After the assassination of Yahya Sinwar in October 2024, he still serves as the head of the Politburo.
His competitor is Khalil al-Haya, who was born on November 5, 1960 in Gaza. In the 1980s, he was arrested several times by the Israeli authorities for anti-Israeli and Islamist activities. He joined Hamas during the first intifada (the Palestinian uprising against the "Israeli occupation") and became a close associate of Sinwar.
In 2006, he was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council, participated in peace talks in Cairo in 2012 and 2014, and since 2017 has been deputy head of the Hamas regional political bureau in Gaza. In October 2024, he became the chief negotiator for the release of Israeli hostages. Al-Haya's personal life was seriously affected by the same conflicts: two of his brothers, four nephews, one cousin and two sons were killed in Israeli air strikes.
Mohammed al-Masri, a security expert, tells Izvestia that Khalil al-Haya, as a hardliner and close to the military wing and Iran, may resist cooperation, demanding maximum concessions. This could be, for example, a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza without disarming Hamas, which could escalate the situation and provoke new hostilities.
At the same time, Mashaal, with his experience in diplomacy in exile, may be more open to pragmatic agreements, including participation in a unified Palestinian government or negotiations with rivals like the Fatah party. However, both leaders face internal pressure to keep a "face of resistance," as complete disarmament would undermine Hamas' ideology and strengthen its competitors.
The decision to limit the term of office for a new head to one year may become part of Hamas' strategy to maintain control until 2027. The movement signals that it plans to remain in power in Gaza regardless of external initiatives and pressure from the international community.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, notes that a few months after the ceasefire came into force, the situation in Gaza relatively stabilized, and it was under these conditions that Hamas decided to hold elections for the head of the politburo.
According to him, the previous similar elections were held back in 2017, when Ismail Haniyeh won, but since then significant changes have taken place within the movement. At the same time, Yanushevsky believes that al-Haya's chances are higher, since Mashaal already headed the politburo and was not re-elected after that, being subjected to internal criticism, including on financial issues. According to him, Al-Haya has managed to establish himself as an effective negotiator, which strengthens his position in the current conditions.
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