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- Failed: Iran resisted in the first month of the war against the United States and Israel
Failed: Iran resisted in the first month of the war against the United States and Israel
A month has passed since the start of the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, but the coalition has not come close to its stated goals, including weakening the Iranian statehood and changing the political regime. On the contrary, Tehran demonstrates the stability of its management system, maintains control over the situation inside the country, and strengthens its response. The conflict is gradually moving into a protracted phase with uncertain political and military results. It cannot be ruled out that it will escalate, including scenarios of a ground operation and strikes on critical infrastructure, experts say.
Iran remains resilient
The US and Israeli operation against Iran started on February 28, 2026 with massive strikes and, according to Washington's plan, was to radically change the balance of power in the Middle East. However, over the past month, the Allies have failed to achieve their stated goals in full.
The coalition has carried out thousands of strikes against military installations, defense industry enterprises and infrastructure. According to the American Central Command, more than 10,000 targets have been hit, and missile and drone production capacities have been significantly weakened. Israel conducted the largest air operation in its history involving hundreds of aircraft.
Nevertheless, the strategic objectives have not been fulfilled. Despite the deaths of a number of key figures, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's political system has demonstrated resilience. Mojtaba Khamenei became the new leader, and the security bloc was promptly reformatted. The authorities were able to maintain manageability and consolidate the population.
Iran continues to resist, retaliating against Israeli territory and American facilities in the Persian Gulf countries. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected global energy markets. About 20% of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Due to the conflict, prices rose by almost 40%: on March 27, Brent was trading at $103 per barrel, WTI — $96. The situation also affected the fertilizer market: due to the suspension of exports from the Persian Gulf countries, there was a shortage, and carbamide prices increased 1.5 times in a month to $700 per ton.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Israel's Channel 9 website, agrees that a number of campaign objectives remain unresolved: the Iranian political system remains stable, the expected protests did not begin, and external pressure, on the contrary, contributed to the consolidation of society. In addition, enriched uranium remains in the country, the missile program has not been completely eliminated, and Tehran continues to support its allies in the region.
According to Hadi Issa Dalul, an expert on international relations, the lack of tangible progress in the campaign is primarily due to the failure of US intelligence and operational training. He draws a parallel with Iraq, noting that Washington's successful actions in the past have been based on a deep understanding of internal processes, which, according to him, is not the case with Iran. The expert claims that Washington has largely relied on inaccurate or hypothetical data.
"An additional factor in Iran's stability is the external military and technological support from a number of states," Hadi Issa Dalul told Izvestia.
In recent years, for example, Tehran has been actively cooperating with Russia and China. "We have an agreement on military-technical cooperation. We have supplied certain types of military products to Iran, but we cannot accept the accusations that we are helping Iran with intelligence," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a recent interview with France TV.
Geographical conditions, which complicate the conduct of large-scale military operations, also played a significant role, Hadi Issa Dalul summed up. As a result, fears are growing in Israel that the United States may pause in hostilities and try to fix the achieved results through diplomacy. This is pushing the Jewish state to accelerate attacks on targets ahead of a possible truce.
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said on March 27 that the army would step up attacks on Iran and expand the list of targets in response to the ongoing rocket attacks. According to him, despite warnings to Tehran, attacks on Israeli territory do not stop, which forces the Israeli side to increase military pressure.
Will there be an overland operation
Attempts at a political settlement have so far failed. Tehran rejected the 15-point plan proposed by Washington, calling it unilateral and unacceptable. In response, the Iranian side put forward its own conditions, including the cessation of hostilities in all directions, the payment of compensation and the lifting of sanctions without prior concessions on the nuclear program.
Despite the refusal, both sides signal their readiness for contacts, but on fundamentally different terms. On March 26, Trump announced the suspension of strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for 10 days, noting that the decision was made, among other things, due to ongoing negotiations. According to him, contacts between the two countries are going "very well." Earlier, Trump had already imposed a five-day "energy truce", which was supposed to end on March 27.
But skepticism about the real intentions of the United States is growing due to previous experience: negotiation processes have been disrupted by Washington more than once and were used more as an element of a tactical pause. Similar situations were observed in the summer of 2025 and in February 2026. It is possible that the current diplomatic activity may serve as a cover for the preparation of a new military scenario.
According to Wall Street Journal sources in Congress, some influential Republicans admit the imminent start of a ground operation. Allegedly, the president is already ready to give the appropriate order, but has so far refrained due to fears of increased losses among the US military and the risk of prolonging the conflict.
The Pentagon is increasing its presence in the region: in recent days, units capable of participating in ground operations have been deployed there, including about a thousand paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division. We are talking, in particular, about rapid reaction forces designed for rapid deployment in crisis zones. Such steps, although they do not necessarily mean preparations for a full-scale invasion, nevertheless expand the possibilities for conducting limited and targeted operations.
A separate element of the possible escalation is called Khark Island by the media. According to the Jerusalem Post, it is considered one of the priority targets of the United States, as it plays a key role in Iranian oil exports: up to 90% of supplies pass through it, a significant part of which goes to China.
CNN notes that Iran has been strengthening its military presence on the island in recent weeks, deploying additional units and air defense systems, as well as creating engineering barriers, including minefields along the coast. A possible ground operation in this area is fraught with high risks and significant losses, given the multilevel defense system and the limited size but strategic importance of the facility.
In these circumstances, the United States and Israel face a choice between further escalation with the risk of being drawn into a long-term conflict and finding a compromise. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagai said in an interview with Zeteo that Iran has already emerged victorious in the current confrontation with the United States and Israel. He stressed that despite years of pressure and various forms of confrontation, Washington has failed to change Tehran's strategic course, and the Iranian society has demonstrated resilience and willingness to defend the country.
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