Words to the wind: negotiations with Tehran may be a cover for a US ground invasion
US President Donald Trump's optimistic statements about negotiations with Iran may conceal preparations for a ground operation. The American leader claims that contacts are already underway through the "most respected person" in Tehran and the parties are close to a deal. Trump announced the suspension of strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6, announcing progress in negotiations. Western media reports on the build-up of the American military presence and Washington's readiness for a ground operation. At the same time, diplomatic contacts through intermediaries are continuing. At the same time, key issues — control over the Strait of Hormuz, the missile program and the nuclear potential of the Islamic Republic — remain unresolved.
Washington has not achieved its goals
Donald Trump's statements about supposedly "ideal" negotiations with Iran may turn out to be just a diplomatic cover against the background of preparing a military scenario. According to Western media reports, the United States is considering launching a limited ground operation in the near future, despite public signals of a desire for a deal.
On March 26, Trump announced the suspension of strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for 10 days, until the evening of April 6. He posted a statement about this on the Truth Social network, noting that the decision was made at the request of the Iranian side. According to him, negotiations between the countries are continuing and are going "very well", despite media reports. Recall that Trump has already introduced a five-day "energy truce", which was supposed to end on March 27.
The American leader had previously stressed the existence of a communication channel with the "most respected person" in the country. However, he clarified that there was no direct dialogue with the current supreme leadership. But the President of the United States has already stated that Iran is begging the United States to make a deal.
According to media reports, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may be considered as a potential representative of Iran at the talks, while Vice President Jay Dee Vance is being discussed on the American side. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi were temporarily excluded from the list of targets for strikes, which allegedly may indicate a desire to preserve space for dialogue with them.
But skepticism about the real intentions of the United States is growing due to previous experience: negotiation processes have already been disrupted by Washington more than once and were used more as an element of a tactical pause. Similar situations were observed in the summer of 2025 and in February 2026. This suggests that the current diplomatic activity may serve as a cover for the preparation of a military scenario.
Hadi Issa Dalul, an expert on international relations, believes that the United States is trying to gain time by its statements, reduce international pressure and at the same time complete preparations for a ground operation.
— The very nature of Donald Trump's statements — on the one hand, about progress in negotiations, and on the other, about his willingness to increase pressure — indicates a dual strategy. Negotiations in this case are being used as a tool to deceive Tehran and its allies," the expert told Izvestia.
The risk of launching a ground operation
Indirect evidence of this version appears in the American press. According to Wall Street Journal sources in Congress, a number of influential Republicans admit the possibility of an early start of a ground operation. At the same time, according to officials, the president is already ready to give the order, but so far he is holding back due to fears that losses among the US military will increase and the conflict will drag on.
At the same time, the Pentagon is strengthening its military presence in the region. In recent days, units capable of conducting ground operations have been deployed there, including about a thousand paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division. In particular, we are talking about a rapid response team designed for rapid deployment in crisis areas. Such measures do not indicate the preparation of a full-scale invasion, but create opportunities for conducting limited and targeted missions.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes that the administration of Donald Trump in the current situation is betting not on military escalation, but on the opportunity to "beautifully" end the conflict with Iran. According to him, the Strait of Hormuz is a key element here: it is control over this strategic artery, through which a significant part of the world's oil supplies pass, that is becoming the main subject of bargaining and a priority for Washington.
At the same time, the expert points out a number of fundamental tasks that have not been solved. First of all, we are talking about preserving Iran's political system itself. Despite the pressure, the regime seems to be stable. He considers the lack of internal protests in Iran to be a separate setback. According to him, it was expected that the fighting could stimulate a new wave of protests, but this did not happen. Joe Kent, who previously left the post of head of the center for combating terrorism in the office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, said that the death of a number of members of the leadership of the Islamic Republic led to the consolidation of Iranian society and rallied citizens around the government in the face of an external threat.
— Among the unresolved issues is the fate of enriched uranium, which is still located in Iran. The country's missile program, although damaged, was not completely eliminated, and Tehran did not abandon the support of its allied forces in the region. All this means that even in the event of a formal end to the conflict, its key contradictions will persist and may reappear in the future," Roman Yanushevsky told Izvestia.
Despite the losses suffered, Iran retains significant military potential and is able to continue fighting, Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. According to him, Tehran still has missile systems and drones at its disposal, allowing it to launch strikes and demonstrate readiness for escalation, which makes it possible to disavow Donald Trump's statements about achieving an unconditional victory.
Iran rejected the US offer
Nevertheless, diplomatic efforts are continuing, albeit in an indirect format. According to Western publications, contacts between the United States and Iran are maintained through intermediaries — Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan. Islamabad is considered a possible venue for the next round of discussions.
Tehran, in turn, is demonstrating a tough stance. Iran rejected the American cease-fire proposal, transmitted through third countries, declaring its intention to continue hostilities until its own conditions are fulfilled. Among them are the expansion of economic control over the Strait of Hormuz, the cessation of Israeli operations against Iranian—allied forces, as well as the preservation of the missile program without restrictions. Earlier, there were also demands for the dismantling of American bases in the region and the payment of compensation.
Washington insists on exactly the opposite conditions: limiting Iran's missile potential, abandoning support for regional armed groups, and dismantling its nuclear infrastructure. At the same time, possible channels of negotiations are being discussed, including contacts at the level of the US Vice President.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov points out that Tehran is no longer ready to return to Trump's previous demands. Iran considers them outdated and is forming a new negotiating agenda, which focuses on demands for compensation and a revision of the basic parameters of a potential deal. As the expert explained, compensation can be understood as a wide range of measures, from unblocking assets to easing sanctions. The specific content of these requirements remains a matter of negotiation, but it is clear that Tehran expects to achieve more favorable terms than before.
— A possible compromise may include not only economic concessions, but also security guarantees, including a reduction in the US military presence in the region. In response, Iran could theoretically agree to partial restrictions on its nuclear program, but not to completely abandon it, Kirill Semenov told Izvestia.
Thus, the situation is developing along a double track: on the one hand, the intensification of diplomacy, on the other, the build—up of military pressure. The unpredictability of the American leader's decisions, which even representatives of his entourage talk about, only increases uncertainty. In these circumstances, negotiations may turn out to be not so much a path to de-escalation as a tool for tactical preparation for a new stage of the conflict.
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