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- A drop in the ocean: how the release of strategic oil reserves will change the global market
A drop in the ocean: how the release of strategic oil reserves will change the global market
Oil supplies from the strategic reserves of the member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to the world market should begin this week, they will take from two to four months. We are talking about more than 400 million barrels. However, according to experts, this measure is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market as a whole: the release of reserves can only mitigate the sharp rise in world prices and keep them in the range of $ 90-100 per barrel for a couple of weeks. At the same time, inventory recovery for some countries may take up to three years, which will maintain high demand and maintain cost pressure, analysts warn. What to expect for the market next and how it will affect Russia is in the Izvestia article.
When will additional volumes of oil appear on the market
The main supplies of oil from the strategic reserves of the member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to the world market should begin in the coming days. Thus, the United States, which promised to release 172 million barrels from strategic oil reserves to reduce commodity prices that have jumped due to the conflict in the Middle East, will begin selling 1-1.5 million barrels per day, bringing the volume to 3 million barrels per day, said Chris Wright, head of the US Department of Energy, at the CERAWeek conference.
In Asia and Oceania, deliveries from strategic reserves began on March 16. It was then that Japan also announced the beginning of the release of its reserves. But in the United States and Europe, the start of deliveries is scheduled for the end of March, said Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector.
According to her, of the total strategic reserves of more than 400 million barrels, the United States accounts for 195.8 million barrels, Asia and Oceania — 108.6 million, Europe — 107.5 million.
According to Tamara Safonova, each IEA member country will independently determine the timing of the launch of raw materials on the market, depending on its national interests.
"It is likely that the agency's member countries will start selling oil refineries and traders from strategic reserves on the open market, taking into account market conditions," the expert believes.
The decision to release oil from strategic reserves against the backdrop of the growing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was made by the IEA member countries on March 11. About 20% of the world's crude oil flows, or about 20 million barrels per day, passed through the strait. Oil prices have increased by almost 40% since the start of the war in the Gulf of Pesida.
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said that the public should be aware of the "depth of the problem" faced by the world due to the war against Iran. According to him, the situation is now more serious than the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, and has also surpassed the gas crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
— Back then, during each of the [oil] crises, the world was losing about 5 million barrels of oil per day, that is, together — 10 million barrels per day. And after that, as you know, serious economic problems arose all over the world. Today, we have lost 11 million barrels, more than the total losses of the two major oil crises," Fatih Birol said.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous international body within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Agency was established in 1974 after the 1973-1974 oil crisis, when Arab countries imposed an embargo on the supply of raw materials to countries supporting Israel. The main goal of the organization is to promote international cooperation in improving the global supply and demand structure of energy resources and energy services. Only OECD member States can become members of the IEA. The agency's members are 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Hungary, Germany, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Canada, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, USA, Turkey, Finland, France, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Sweden, Estonia, South Korea and Japan. The total strategic oil reserves amount to 1.2 billion barrels.
How much oil will be available from the reserves
According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government, the volume of 400 million barrels will be enough for only four days of global consumption, or for 9-10 days of consumption by the IEA member countries.
— In theory, this step was supposed to prevent a sharp rise in world oil prices, to keep them in the range of $ 90-100 per barrel for at least a couple of weeks, until there is some kind of resolution to the Middle East conflict. But in practice, we see that the negative news background has actually blocked these efforts of the IEA, today quotes react primarily to information from the conflict zone," he told Izvestia.
At the same time, the expert noted that after each attack on fuel and energy facilities or a new batch of mutual threats, prices rise, and in the case of statements about the possible passage of tankers through Hormuz, they decrease. Thus, the impact of the release of reserves turned out to be even more short-term than expected and very limited in effect.
According to Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting, the United States has already held the first tender for 86 million barrels for delivery in April – May and the condition for the return of oil in a larger volume from November 2026 to September 2028.
Valery Andrianov believes that the full cycle of the current release will take from two to four months, until about July 2026 due to technical restrictions on pumping oil from storage facilities.
— But there are differences between regions in terms of timing. Thus, supplies from the reserves of Japan and South Korea began immediately, immediately after the announcement of this decision on March 11. The EU and the US plan to start commodity interventions at the end of March," the expert said.
What consequences can the oil market expect?
According to Tamara Safonova, the effect of printing the strategic reserves of the IEA countries will depend on the timing and is likely to be short-term for end users.
"For comparison, the volume of oil production by the countries using the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, according to calculations by NUANCE media, amounted to 27.2 million barrels per day, or 762 million barrels for the entire month," she said.
The expert stressed that under the current conditions, the price of oil is particularly sensitive to the escalation of the Middle East crisis, and the release of strategic reserves may be important primarily for regional fuel supply.
The very fact of releasing more than 400 million barrels is already having an impact on the market, said Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company. However, in his opinion, the key factor remains geopolitics.
"An increase in release volumes looks like a justified scenario in the event of a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to higher oil prices," he said.
Valery Andrianov believes that this can only have a short-term impact on the market: the measure will have a "patch effect" rather than a potent drug. However, he did not rule out that if the conflict drags on, the IEA will have to release additional reserves.
— This may be necessary not only and not so much to contain prices, but to prevent a physical shortage of oil. The situation may worsen if, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked as a result of Houthi attacks," said Valery Andrianov.
Izvestia sent a request to the IEA.
In general, analysts agree that the release of stocks will put pressure on prices in the future.
— Depletion of reserves can be accompanied by a negative psychological effect — the less oil remains in storage, the more nervous the market will react and the less the impact of these interventions on quotes will be, — says Valery Andrianov.
Despite the intention of the IEA member countries to release almost a third of their oil reserves, commodity prices will remain higher than in January this year, which have already increased by more than 40%. This will allow Russian exporters to receive additional revenue, said Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult.
— Today, Russian Urals is trading at a premium to Brent of $4-5 per barrel. Even after the end of the Middle East crisis, the IEA member countries will restore their reserves, which will continue to affect demand, prices and export earnings, including Russian ones," Ekaterina Kosareva explained.
According to Valery Andrianov, the full restoration of strategic reserves may take from 18 to 36 months, but the timing depends on the specific country. Thus, the United States plans to replenish its reserve by 200 million barrels by the spring of 2027. For most other participants who are net importers of oil, the process may take two to three years: they are likely to replenish stocks during the most favorable price conditions in order to minimize costs, the expert concluded.
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