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- A barrel at the new gate: the US attack on Kharkh Island will lead to a new rise in oil
A barrel at the new gate: the US attack on Kharkh Island will lead to a new rise in oil
The Middle East is witnessing the beginning of a serious escalation of the conflict. For the first time, Tehran attacked nuclear facilities in Israel in response to similar attacks by opponents. Donald Trump has threatened the Islamic Republic with disabling power plants if it does not unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Washington may also launch a ground operation: the White House believes that the seizure of Kharq Island is capable of depriving Iran of oil revenues and undermining its budget. Experts are confident that another round of tension will provoke a sharp jump in oil prices — this time to $ 120-160 per barrel. About what else Washington's new adventure might turn out to be, see the Izvestia article.
Iran responds to Trump's new threats
Last weekend, Tehran launched one of the most powerful strikes on Israeli territory. More than 100 people were injured as a result of ballistic missile attacks on the cities of Dimona and Arad. Both settlements are located near nuclear facilities — the IAEA has already clarified that the research center was not damaged, and there was no increase in radiation levels outside the building.
Ballistic missile attack on the city of Arad
Iran considers the strikes on the south of the neighboring country as a direct response to the attacks on its own nuclear facility in Natanz, says orientalist Kirill Semenov. If the parties continue to act in this spirit, the situation may spiral out of control.
— Getting into a reactor is a disaster scenario that takes the conflict far beyond a local collision. In case of damage to the core and radiation leakage, the threat becomes existential for the entire region," he explained to Izvestia.
Previously, nuclear facilities were considered "red lines," but today there are no such borders, the expert added. The Israeli Prime Minister has already promised to "attack the enemies" on all fronts. Obviously, we are talking about bombing both Iranian territory and Lebanon — more precisely, Hezbollah positions located here.
At the same time, the United States and Israel are trying to avoid any provocations that could draw the Yemeni Houthis into the conflict on the side of Iran, the media write. The reason is that the Ansar Allah movement is able to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, another important waterway through which energy supplies are also carried out. With Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, such a development could further destabilize the global energy market.
Iran also attacked the US-British base on Diego Garcia Island. Two medium-range ballistic missiles were launched at the island, which is located 3.8 thousand km from the Iranian coast. It is reported that none of them reached the target.
The monarchies of the Persian Gulf - Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia — still remain in the war zone. Iraq is also under attack — according to media reports, on Saturday night, UAVs attacked an object at the Baghdad airport, where the US military and diplomats are located.
As the conflict grows, which risks turning from a rapid regime change operation into a protracted war, reports are coming about a possible diplomatic settlement. American media reported that potential peace talks with Iran are currently being discussed within the American administration. Stephen Witkoff, the special envoy of the US president, and Jared Kushner, Trump's son—in-law, play an important role in this, as they participate in discussions on further diplomatic steps.
According to the Axios portal, there have been no direct contacts between the United States and Iran in recent days, although a number of states have transmitted messages from the warring parties. Egypt and Qatar have informed the United States and Israel that Iran is interested in negotiations, but on very strict terms. His demands include a cease-fire, guarantees that the war will not resume in the future, and compensation for the damage caused.
American President Donald Trump, judging by his public statements, is not yet ready to make any concessions. On March 22, he issued an ultimatum: if the route through Hormuz is not opened within 48 hours, the United States will begin destroying Iranian power plants. Tehran, in turn, has threatened attacks on the entire energy infrastructure in the Middle East linked to the United States and Israel. Iran also allowed attacks on desalination plants and information technology infrastructure facilities.
Energy crisis due to the Strait of Hormuz
Iran refuses to capitulate and find a diplomatic way out of the conflict, which will not take into account Tehran's interests, The Washington Post claims. At the same time, the Iranian side expects to use control over the Strait of Hormuz as a lever of pressure on the United States and its partners. Earlier it was reported that Tehran began charging $ 2 million for the transit of ships through this route.
"Since war costs money, we naturally have to do this and charge fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz," said Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the parliamentary commission on National Security and Foreign Policy.
It is the situation around the Strait of Hormuz that may become the main reason for further escalation. Before the start of the war, up to 30% of the world's supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil went through this route, which caused energy prices to jump sharply after it was blocked.
This has created serious problems, including for Asian and European countries. The United States is also experiencing serious damage from the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, where the cost of fuel has already significantly increased due to rising oil prices. The war with Iran cost American drivers about $4.5 billion, according to analysts at the GasBuddy service. This amount reflects the difference in fuel prices before the conflict and as of March 21. The average price of a gallon of gasoline has increased from about $2.93 to $3.72 during this time. According to experts, this could undermine Donald Trump's ratings ahead of the November 2026 congressional elections.
Despite the serious risks, the United States does not seem to have ruled out the possibility of launching a ground operation. A number of media outlets report that the Pentagon allegedly conducted detailed preparations for the deployment of ground forces to Iran. Donald Trump himself said on March 19 that he was not going to send troops anywhere. But then he added, "If that were the case, I definitely wouldn't tell you."
The United States may try to capture or block the Iranian island of Kharq in the Persian Gulf. 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through it: taking it under control will reduce supplies to the world market by about 1.5–1.7 million barrels per day and deal a serious blow to Tehran's budgetary stability, Saudi economist Eid Al-Eid explained to Izvestia. The Americans can implement such a scenario in order to force the Iranian side to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and abandon harsh conditions in the negotiations.
The United States has already begun deploying thousands of marines and ships to the Middle East, which may indicate plans to launch a ground operation. The Boxer landing force, which includes the USS Boxer, as well as the dock ships USS Portland and USS Comstock, is expected to be deployed ahead of schedule. Currently, about 50,000 American troops are already in the region, and as a result of the transfer, another 8,000 will join them, including 4-5 thousand Marines.
What might a US military operation look like?
According to experts, the probability of an amphibious operation on Kharg Island is quite high, but the final decision will depend on the Pentagon's readiness to mitigate the associated risks. Obviously, if such a scenario is implemented, it will be possible to see a classic multi-level operation characteristic of the American military doctrine.
Military expert Dmitry Kornev believes that such an operation will not be lightning-fast. A massive air offensive will serve as the foundation for it.
— First, there will be a suppression of defense: attacks by cruise missiles, aircraft and drones on targets on the island and the adjacent coast. Then there is the mopping up of the water area and the destruction of coastal protection equipment. Only after the isolation of the area is a landing possible, and the main focus will be on the airborne assault," he explained to Izvestia.
Kharg Island
According to the expert, the use of universal amphibious assault ships in the early stages is excluded. The need to pass through the narrow neck of the Strait of Hormuz puts large vessels at risk, which the American command is unlikely to do. The main intrigue lies in the reaction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The expert emphasizes that despite the harsh rhetoric of Tehran, the readiness of the Iranian leadership for a direct clash must be assessed soberly.
— There are pragmatists working at the Pentagon. They will not launch the mission until they are sure that the risk of amphibious assault is minimized," Dmitry Kornev noted. — The psychological aspect is also important: now we see no signs of preparation of the Iranian forces for acts of self-sacrifice.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov noted three critical factors that make the U.S. venture extremely risky: geography, logistics, and scorched earth tactics.
— Kharq is located deep in the Persian Gulf, just 20 km from the mainland. Crossing the strait in itself is a deadly maneuver. The IRGC forces are capable of covering ships with a missile salvo on the way," the orientalist believes.
An assault would require stretched communications under constant fire, making a landing logistically unjustifiable. Kharq is a key hub providing up to 90% of the republic's oil exports, and Tehran does not intend to give it away for nothing.
So even if Washington dares to attack, Hark is unlikely to be chosen as the primary target, the analyst concluded. Collisions on small islands in the Strait of Hormuz are much more likely. Any attempt to go deep into the gulf will be regarded by Tehran as an opportunity to lure Americans into traps using sabotage methods. Against this background, Roman Yanushevsky, the editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, emphasized: A naval blockade of the island could benefit the United States more than a land operation. It will effectively stop oil exports from the island without the need for a direct military clash on land.
In any case, the escalation around Kharq will give rise to a sharp rise in world oil prices: they may jump to $ 120-160 per barrel, economist Eid Al-Eid is confident. This will lead to accelerated inflation, higher fuel prices and increased recession risks in importing countries, primarily in Europe and Asia. Inflationary pressure will inevitably increase in them, Omani political analyst Khamis al-Qutaiti suggested in an interview with Izvestia. Moreover, as reported in The Wall Street Journal, if the energy crisis provoked by the escalation of the Middle East conflict is not resolved before April, oil prices may well rise to $ 180 per barrel.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
