Pause and against: Trump is trying to split the Iranian elite
The five-day suspension of strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure announced by Donald Trump at first glance creates a window for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. However, this statement may have other goals, from reducing pressure on global oil markets to trying to provoke a split within the Iranian elite. After all, if some politicians in Tehran publicly reject negotiations, others may consider dialogue as the only way to avoid further destabilization. Global oil markets have already reacted: Brent and WTI futures declined sharply, which partially eased the price pressure that arose after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the decrease in tension, the situation in the region remains unstable and could escalate again at any moment.
Trump refused the ultimatum
The threat of a large-scale escalation in the Middle East has temporarily weakened. US President Donald Trump has announced a five-day suspension of strikes on Iranian power plants and other energy infrastructure, subject to ongoing negotiations with Tehran. In his account on the Truth Social platform, he announced talks with Iranian officials, describing the discussions as "deep and constructive."
The American leader said that representatives of Washington and Tehran had reached "basic agreements" during the negotiations. According to him, the parties are interested in concluding a deal. "They really want to make a deal. We would also like to conclude a deal," he said, adding that the negotiations "went perfectly."
At the same time, Trump claims that negotiations are not taking place with Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, but with a "respected" representative of the establishment. According to him, Tehran is ready to abandon its nuclear program.
The head of the White House also announced plans to continue contacts in the near future, including by telephone, and admitted that an agreement could be reached within five days. According to him, Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner participated in the negotiations.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner
Axios, citing an Israeli official, reported that the United States and Iran are allegedly preparing a meeting in the capital of Pakistan, Islamabad, as early as this week. The Iranian delegation, according to their information, may be led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and the United States by Witkoff, Kushner, and possibly Vice President DJ Vance.
Earlier, the US ultimatum, in which Trump threatened to "de-energize" Iran if it refused to open the Strait of Hormuz, increased concerns about regional destabilization and the global energy crisis. Iran reacted by threatening to hit the critical infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries, where American military facilities are located. In particular, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that attacks on the country's power plants would lead to retaliatory attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, including oil refineries and desalination plants in countries with an American military presence — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
However, Tehran actually disavowed Washington's statements about "constructive negotiations." The Iranian Fars news agency, citing a source, claims that there have been no contacts with the United States, either directly or through intermediaries. The agency's interlocutor stressed that Trump's decision to postpone the strikes was not due to diplomatic progress, but to threats from Iran. According to him, the American side "retreated when it heard that all power plants in Western Asia would become targets."
At the same time, the American administration could pursue the goal of reducing pressure on global oil markets — after Trump's statements, the price of Brent futures fell by more than 14% to $ 96 per barrel, and WTI — by more than 10% to $88.25 per barrel.
— With such statements, Trump is trying to weaken the growth in the cost of oil and gas resources, which have grown significantly since the beginning of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In the short run, the tactic really works: after Trump's announcement about the negotiations, there was some price reduction. This, in theory, should partially compensate for the costs incurred by the United States," orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
Iran is ready to strike back
The fact that Iran has so far denied conducting any negotiations with the United States may be a tactical move: demonstrating a tough stance helps strengthen the authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), showing that the state does not make concessions under external pressure.
A military expert, retired Iraqi Armed Forces officer Seif Raad believes that the Iranian leadership is unlikely to make concessions to Washington. First of all, this concerns the IRGC, which is an ideologically motivated military structure. According to Raad, Tehran relies on pressure from the international community and the Persian Gulf countries, using the threat of closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a key instrument of influence on the United States.
— Trump's statements about the suspension of strikes can be seen as the last chance for diplomacy against the background of internal and external pressure on the American administration. Washington's ultimate goal remains to achieve a result that can be presented as a victory. The dynamics of oil and gas prices will directly depend on the level of escalation or de-escalation. Any escalation will inevitably lead to higher prices and increased pressure on the global economy," Seif Raad told Izvestia.
Iraqi military analyst Safaa al-Assam believes that Iran has already made it clear that in the event of a strike on its energy infrastructure, it can respond with strikes against energy facilities in the Middle East.
— Thus, the principle of "action — reaction" is possible. I don't think Trump is ready to take that risk right now. Rather, we are moving towards negotiations. At the moment, I do not think that there are already full—fledged contacts or an agreement on negotiations between Iran and the United States, although such signs may help reduce tensions in the region," he stressed in an interview with Izvestia.
According to the expert, oil and gas prices will remain high until the actual opening of the Strait of Hormuz or the start of real negotiations with Iran. At the same time, attacks on the Iranian energy sector can cause large-scale power outages, affecting hospitals, water treatment systems and food chains.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes that the announced pause in attacks on the Iranian energy sector does not mean the end of the conflict, but it can become a starting point for the negotiation process. According to him, the current dynamics indicate that "a possible suspension of hostilities against Iran is beginning to be seen on the horizon," but it is too early to talk about a full-fledged settlement.
But reaching an agreement with Tehran remains questionable, he told Izvestia. Even if negotiations lead to a result in the coming days and the United States reduces military activity in the Iranian direction, this will not mean the end of the war for Israel. "We can only talk about a pause, and that depends on the content and outcome of the negotiations," Yanushevsky said.
He also drew attention to the stability of the Iranian political system. According to him, despite the military pressure, the regime in Iran has been preserved due to deep integration into society and the economy, as well as the control measures taken. In particular, Internet access was restricted in the country during the conflict, but the country did not see protest activity, despite the expectations of the United States.
The United States is seeking to split the Iranian elite
Another possible goal of the United States may be to create internal pressure on the Iranian elite and strengthen internal contradictions: opponents of negotiations are faced with an actual demonstration of US readiness for dialogue, and pragmatic representatives of the elite get the opportunity to use the pause to promote compromise solutions.
As a result, the American administration is trying to turn factions within the Iranian leadership against each other. Ultimatums and the simultaneous announcement of "negotiations" create pressure on hardliners and stimulate debate within the elite, forcing some of the leadership to consider dialogue as the only way to avoid further destabilization.
— Such a calculation could have taken place, partly because Washington has not fully decided who to consider the real leader of Iran after Khamenei's death, and in whose hands the levers of power are. By trying to get Iranians emotional, Trump is trying to identify the most active figures of the Iranian establishment, as well as, if possible, track the reaction of the main factions," Leonid Tsukanov said.
In a telephone interview with The Atlantic magazine, Trump noted: "They want to talk, and I agreed to talk, so I will talk to them. They should have done it earlier..." At the same time, Trump stressed that "most of those people have already left," referring to the former negotiators who died or lost influence, and now a new leadership group has emerged with which dialogue is possible. According to him, there are "several good candidates" among the contenders for leadership after the death of Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, which allows the United States to hope for cooperation with more pragmatic elements of the Iranian establishment and use internal contradictions as a tool of pressure.
Meanwhile, the United States has repeatedly disrupted negotiations with Iran, using them more as a distraction. This happened in the summer of 2025 and again in February 2026, which causes skepticism about the goals of Americans. Therefore, it is possible that escalation will resume after a temporary lull.
In addition, the Western media wrote that the United States had not completely ruled out a military scenario, primarily in relation to the island of Kharkh. 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through it: taking it under control will reduce supplies to the world market by about 1.5–1.7 million barrels per day and deal a serious blow to Tehran's budgetary stability, Saudi economist Eid Al-Eid told Izvestia earlier.
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