Crumple the bloc: the EU could not allocate a loan to Ukraine due to Hungary's veto
The EU summit held on March 19-20 exposed the impotence of the bloc's members. EU leaders could not agree on the allocation of €90 billion to Kiev due to Hungary's position, which requires the launch of the Druzhba oil pipeline. In Europe, they hope for Viktor Orban's defeat in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The European officials also discussed the rapid rise in energy prices, but were unable to influence the situation in the Middle East, limiting themselves to verbal calls for an end to the conflict. The primacy of politics over economic interests is steadily leading countries like Germany to a deep crisis, Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev told Izvestia.
The EU is concerned about energy prices and a new wave of migration
The next EU summit was held in Brussels on March 19-20. The Middle East crisis, as well as the rise in energy prices provoked by it, was expected to be at the center of the discussion. In the final communique, the summit participants refrained from criticizing the United States and Israel, instead condemning Tehran for its "indiscriminate military strikes" on targets in other countries. The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, compared the beginning of the war to a "love affair," noting that it is easy to enter into conflict, but difficult to get out of it.
— We want to see a way out of this war. We see the chaos in the Middle East and the consequences for the whole world," she said.
However, apart from verbal appeals and beautiful words, the EU leaders have not taken concrete measures to resolve the conflict. Today, the EU lacks almost all potential tools to influence the situation in the Middle East, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, explained to Izvestia.
— In terms of the use of hard power, the EU simply does not have sufficient potential and capabilities. From a reputational point of view, the EU has largely lost its reputation as a guardian of peace and order throughout the world and a kind of moralizer — the images that the association and the member states tried to build for the international community, the expert said.
As stated by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the consequences of the war have gone far beyond the Middle East. She drew attention to the fact that the conflict led to a reduction in oil and gas supplies due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and, as a result, to an increase in energy prices. For example, gas on the European stock exchange at the opening of trading on March 20 cost $ 730 per 1,000 cubic meters. Brent crude oil — more than $107 per barrel.
In March, the European Commission reported that almost 10% of the EU population still cannot afford adequate heating, and over 30 million people struggle to pay utility bills. Germany, including due to the disruption of the Nord Streams, is now forced to rely on American LNG, the price of which is significantly higher than Russian, Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev told Izvestia. According to him, replacing gas with renewable energy sources or "green hydrogen" is unrealistic in the foreseeable future. As a result, high electricity prices persist in Germany, which negatively affects the competitiveness of goods produced here.
— All this has a very negative impact on the welfare of German citizens. The situation is aggravated by the aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran, which has caused a crisis in the Middle East region, including in the energy sector. However, we have not yet seen any signs of a change in Berlin's line, in which the primacy of politics over the interests of the national economy is still indisputable," the diplomat said.
In the final communique, the EU did not take specific measures to mitigate the crisis, only calling on the EC to provide reports on the impact of recent events on the energy security of the bloc. European officials indicated that they fear that the war in the Middle East could provoke a new wave of migrants to Europe.
In the modern world, every new round of international tension provokes new crises, for which the EU is not ready, Egor Sergeev believes. The reason for this is the EU's clumsy bureaucratic management system, which is unable to respond promptly to new developments.
The EU failed to overcome the split over aid to Kiev
As the Politico portal pointed out, the EU summit exposed its impotence regarding not only Iran, but also Ukraine. Hungary's position was expected to become a stumbling block. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has blocked a €90 billion military loan to Kiev. Budapest and Bratislava in an ultimatum demand to restore the pumping of raw materials through the Druzhba oil pipeline, which, according to Kiev, is still damaged due to Russian attacks. But Kiev has not provided any concrete evidence of this.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto explicitly stated on March 16 that the veto on new anti-Russian sanctions and loans to Kiev would not be lifted until supplies resumed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also called on Kiev on March 20 to stop the energy blackmail of other countries.
According to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, as discontent grew during the summit, many leaders sharply criticized the Hungarian prime minister. "I've never heard such harsh criticism of anyone in my life," he told reporters during a break in negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz agreed that the leaders were "deeply upset" by Orban's actions. "I am firmly convinced that this will leave an indelible mark," he said.
Earlier, Orban even threatened Kiev to cut off electricity supplies if they did not resume pumping oil. And on March 20, he said: if Kiev attacks the Turkish Stream again, Budapest will declare it state terrorism and take international measures.
Theoretically, EU countries can overcome Hungary's veto. If the European Union recognizes something as a "strategic goal," then it is allowed to make a decision on this by a qualified majority, Artem Ilyinsky, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.
— This creates a certain danger and precedent, because this possibility has never been accepted before. If the EU does use it, it will, in fact, recognize that its strategic goal is to provide military assistance to Ukraine. It's very dangerous, and I don't think the Europeans will do it," he said.
EU leaders are now betting heavily on the parliamentary elections to be held in Hungary on April 12. They expect Viktor Orban to lose them and leave the post of prime minister. His main rival is Peter Magyar, the leader of the opposition Tisa party. Despite the fact that he has repeatedly spoken about the importance of Russian oil for Hungary, the EU considers him more negotiable. So far, the chances of both candidates for the post of prime minister remain approximately equal, Artyom Ilyinsky summarizes.
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