Why Trump postponed an important visit to China. Analysis
US President Donald Trump announced that he was postponing a visit to China scheduled for the end of March, during which he was supposed to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The reason for the disruption of the summit was the ongoing conflict with Iran, which significantly weakened Washington's negotiating position. What problems in relations with China have now been put on pause can be found in the Izvestia article.
What is known about Trump's visit to China
• A week before the armed conflict with Iran, the White House announced the upcoming visit of US President Donald Trump to Beijing. The summit was supposed to be held from March 31 to April 2, during which negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping were to take place. Trump last visited China on a state visit in November 2017 during his first term as president.
• It was planned that Trump and Xi Jinping would meet four times in 2026 at events of various formats. The summit in the Chinese capital was supposed to be their first face-to-face meeting. In China, the arrival of the US president at the end of March was not confirmed, but it is typical for Beijing to announce the arrival of high-ranking guests at the very last moment, when all preparations are completed.
• As a result, in the midst of the conflict with Iran, Trump asked the Chinese side to postpone the summit for a month, saying it was important for him to stay in Washington and monitor the course of hostilities. This announcement was preceded by a round of talks in Paris, where the two countries' delegations discussed a potential agreement, including on investment and trade in semiconductors.
Why did Trump postpone the visit
• Trump called the war with Iran the reason for postponing such an important visit to China, and there is some truth in this statement. However, when Trump claims that he only wants to stay informed as commander-in-chief and react quickly to the changing situation in the Middle East, without being distracted by negotiations with the head of the world's second largest economy, there is some guile in this. From the very beginning, the conflict with Iran has also concerned China and was partly started by Trump as part of a strategic rivalry with Beijing.
• The campaign in Venezuela alone was enough for the agenda of the US-China summit to be written from scratch. Trump himself claimed that the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro was necessary in order to control oil supplies from Venezuela, including to China. China is also the main consumer of oil from Iran, where the United States is also conducting an operation to change government officials and reshape oil flows. It cannot be said that Trump decided to take such drastic steps only because of the confrontation with China, but one of the motives was clearly the intention to get an extra trump card in negotiations with Beijing.
• We can already be sure that if the summit in Beijing had taken place in two weeks, it would have been held in an extremely tense atmosphere and would not have produced worthwhile results. Moreover, it was Trump who acknowledged this, the first to announce the postponement of the visit for a month, while China continued to pause and was ready for any development. In the current circumstances, a meeting would be a demonstration of Trump's political weakness, which he cannot afford against the background of internal problems and the upcoming midterm congressional elections.
• The last straw for postponing the visit could be China's refusal to send its troops to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Faced with the consequences of this step on the part of Iran, Trump called on several major consumers of Middle Eastern oil, including China, to send warships to the conflict zone. However, neither Beijing nor any other capital responded to the call.
• We must not forget that the beginning of 2026 was also marked by a serious undermining of Trump's tariff policy. Because of the Supreme Court's decision, he was left without a tool that he considered indispensable for exerting pressure on any country in the world. Trump was left without an important lever for himself in negotiations with China, which he could pull at any moment and create the necessary background for himself in the negotiations. It got to the point where experts are seriously discussing the option of a partial free trade agreement with China that Trump could propose, but such an unexpected move requires quite a long and careful study. The successful completion of the operation in Iran was supposed to replace Trump with the possibility of imposing tariffs, but this scenario has not yet been implemented.
What should have been discussed at the negotiations
• For the United States, the most pressing issue in negotiations with China was to be the supply of rare earth metals. This would normally be an important import resource for Washington, but due to the protracted conflict with Iran, it is becoming even more relevant. These minerals, of which China leads the world in reserves, will be needed by the United States to replenish its arsenals, which are emptying every day as the military campaign in the Middle East continues. The White House felt the importance of rare earth metals when China, in response to the tariffs imposed by Trump, threatened to stop their supply. Since then, the United States has been trying its best to prevent the loss of an important resource for itself, not only by conducting diplomatic work with China, but also by trying to gain control over Greenland.
• China is concerned about its own energy security, which the United States has been targeting so closely in recent months. Beijing has been diversifying oil imports for years in order to maintain the foundation for the development of its economy, which remains an essential resource for China even amid the massive transition to electric vehicles. Now that the United States has begun to threaten oil supplies from several sides at once (do not forget about unsuccessful attempts to limit Russian oil exports), Beijing needs to take action, and the most obvious of them is to work out an agreement with the United States. Washington is even demonstrating its readiness for it to some extent: it is forced to allow Iranian tankers to pass through to Chinese ports, because without this step, the oil market would have been in even greater turbulence.
• China could make claims to the United States not only about oil from Venezuela and Iran. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, provoked by the strikes of the United States and Israel, affected not only black gold. Supplies of liquefied natural gas, necessary for the production of fertilizers, which in turn are needed for agriculture, were also blocked. Supply disruptions are reaching such a scale that the food security of a number of regions is at risk, especially in Southeast Asia, where China is increasing its influence.
• The tension around Taiwan was not the least important point of the negotiations. In recent months, China has been concerned about the actions of both the United States and Japan in this area. Beijing reacted sharply to statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about her intention to defend the island in the event of a possible invasion, but then faced the success of her party in the elections, which reinforced the mandate for a hawkish policy towards China. At the same time, China expressed clear dissatisfaction with the US intention to sell Taiwan $14 billion worth of weapons. Although the United States made it clear in early March that it was postponing arms supplies in order to hold a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, this did not mean at all that plans to arm the island had been abandoned.
When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:
- Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;
- American political scientist Malek Dudakov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
