How "non-nuclear" countries got the atomic bomb and why Iran was attacked because of it. Details
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- How "non-nuclear" countries got the atomic bomb and why Iran was attacked because of it. Details
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons has consolidated the status of five official nuclear powers: the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain and France. Besides them, India, Pakistan, Israel and the DPRK have nuclear weapons, but they are not part of this system. Iran's nuclear program has been the subject of international negotiations and restrictions under the 2015 agreement. After the United States withdrew from the deal in 2018, the situation around the Iranian program escalated again, and after the outbreak of war in the Middle East in 2026, it spiraled out of control. What you need to know about the unofficial owners of nuclear weapons and how it relates to the attack on Iran is in the Izvestia article.
The Nuclear Community
• The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is in force in the global nuclear weapons control system. He consolidated the official status of the five nuclear powers: the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain and France. These countries are recognized as possessing nuclear weapons because they created and tested them before the conclusion of this document. They undertake not to transfer such technologies to other States.
• Most of the world's countries have signed this treaty and abandoned the development of nuclear weapons. At the same time, there are states that actually have nuclear warheads, but are not included in the official "nuclear five". These include India and Pakistan, which have developed and tested nuclear weapons, Israel, which adheres to a policy of uncertainty, as well as North Korea, which withdrew from the treaty and conducted its own nuclear tests.
Israel's nuclear program
• Israel's nuclear program began to take shape shortly after the establishment of the State in 1948. The country's leadership believed that the development of nuclear technology could ensure long-term security. One of the main initiators of the program was Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, who supported the development of science and the creation of research centers. In the 1950s, Israel began cooperation with France, and with its help, a nuclear reactor was built in the Negev Desert. This complex became the basis of the Israeli nuclear infrastructure and allowed to conduct research and obtain materials necessary for nuclear technology.
In the 1960s, Israel was able to produce plutonium, one of the materials used to create nuclear weapons. The work was carried out in strict secrecy, and Israel officially declared that the facility was being used for peaceful scientific purposes.
• Later, Israel adopted a position of so-called nuclear uncertainty. The State does not confirm or deny that it has nuclear weapons. At the same time, the country has not joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Israel has a well-developed nuclear infrastructure, but exact data on the number and characteristics of these weapons have not been disclosed.
India's Nuclear Program
• India began developing a nuclear program shortly after independence in 1947. In 1948, the Atomic Energy Commission was established to develop the scientific base and build research reactors. In the first decades, the official purpose of the program was called peaceful research. However, in parallel, opportunities were created to obtain materials suitable for the production of nuclear weapons.
• The situation changed in the 1960s due to tensions with neighboring countries. The border conflict with China in 1962 and Beijing's acquisition of nuclear weapons in 1964 had a major impact. These events have strengthened India's desire to develop its own nuclear potential. In 1974, India conducted the first underground nuclear test at a test site in the state of Rajasthan. Officially, it was presented as a "peaceful nuclear explosion," but the test demonstrated the country's ability to create a nuclear device.
• India conducted the second series of tests in May 1998. Several underground explosions were carried out at the same test site, after which the country actually declared itself a nuclear power. These tests provoked an international reaction and led to retaliatory tests from Pakistan. India has not conducted any new nuclear explosive tests since 1998 and adheres to a voluntary moratorium on them. However, it continues to develop its nuclear infrastructure and delivery systems.
Pakistan's nuclear program
The main impetus for the development of Pakistan's nuclear program was the tension in relations with India and the results of the 1971 war, when Pakistan lost East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). India's nuclear test in 1974 also had a strong impact. Pakistan's leadership has come to the conclusion that the country needs its own nuclear weapons for strategic deterrence.
• During the 1970s and 1980s, Pakistan built an infrastructure for uranium enrichment. The work was carried out in conditions of high secrecy. The main center of nuclear research was the complex in Kakhuta. Pakistan conducted its first confirmed tests in 1998. They took place at a test site in a desolate mountainous area in Balochistan province and were a response to a series of Indian nuclear tests conducted shortly before. After these explosions, Pakistan officially declared itself a nuclear power. Since then, the country has maintained a moratorium on test explosions.
North Korea's nuclear program
The first research in the field of atomic energy began with the support of the Soviet Union. In the 1960s and 1970s, the main nuclear research complex was built in the Yongbyon area. It was originally used for scientific research and the production of reactor fuel. Over time, an infrastructure was created on its basis, which made it possible to obtain plutonium suitable for the production of nuclear weapons. In 1985, the DPRK joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but withdrew from it in 2003.
The DPRK conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 at an underground test site. After that, the tests were conducted five more times, the last time in 2017. These explosions confirmed that the country has been able to create nuclear weapons and continues to improve their power. No new explosive tests have been officially conducted in recent years, but the republic continues to develop missile technology, and the international community is closely monitoring the possibility of new tests.
The Iranian case
• Iran's nuclear program began to develop back in the 1950s, when the country actively cooperated with Western states in the framework of international projects for the development of peaceful nuclear energy. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, many projects were stopped, but later the development of the atom resumed. Since the 1990s, Iran has begun building new nuclear facilities, including uranium enrichment plants and nuclear power plants. Officially, the program is intended for power generation and scientific research.
• Most nuclear power plants require uranium with an increased content of the isotope uranium-235. Such uranium is produced in special facilities — centrifuges. The problem is that the same technology can also be used to produce highly enriched uranium suitable for nuclear weapons. Therefore, the presence of a large number of centrifuges and stocks of enriched uranium in the country raises concerns among international organizations that ensure that nuclear technology is used only for peaceful purposes.
• In 2002, it became known about a number of facilities that had not previously been officially declared to international inspectors. This raised suspicions that some of the work could have been carried out without full international control. The International Atomic Energy Agency has begun more detailed inspections and negotiations with Iran.
• The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was developed in 2015. This is an agreement between Iran and six countries (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany), under which Tehran limited its nuclear program and allowed IAEA inspections in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. However, in 2018, the United States, under Donald Trump, who at that time was serving as president for the first time, withdrew from the deal and restored sanctions, calling the agreement ineffective.
• After that, Iran gradually began to violate the established restrictions and increased the level of uranium enrichment to values close to weapons. Attempts by former US President Joe Biden to bring the parties back to the agreement were unsuccessful. As a result, in 2026, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. One of the stated goals is the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities.
Containing Iran
The Iranian nuclear program is not the real cause of the war. It is only a formal reason for starting a conflict and ending negotiations. The real goal is to change the government in Iran so that a leadership more loyal to the United States and its allies will come to power. The main motive of the conflict is the struggle for control over resources, primarily oil, and strategic regions. Iran is important because of its position on the North–South trade route that connects Russia, the Middle East and India. Control over the country would make it possible to influence this route and increase pressure on Russia and the countries of Central Asia.
The appearance of nuclear weapons in Iran would be a deterrent factor that would make a direct attack on the country much more risky. However, even without nuclear weapons, Iran already has missiles and drones capable of causing significant damage to US bases and infrastructure in the region.
• The United States and Israel have been trying for many years to prevent the development of the Iranian nuclear program, including through pressure and operations against Iranian scientists. At the same time, the exact stage of the Iranian nuclear program is unknown. Iran may not be any closer to developing nuclear weapons yet. However, Israel's possession of nuclear weapons has not made the region safer, but, on the contrary, has increased tensions in the Middle East.
US Policy
• The active opposition to the Iranian nuclear program is explained by the US policy on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Despite withdrawing from a number of international arms control agreements, the United States continues to support the non-proliferation regime because it does not want new nuclear states to appear. The presence of such weapons makes countries more independent and allows them to pursue a more independent foreign policy.
• Washington opposes the appearance of nuclear weapons even among its allies. South Korea and Japan were made clear that they should not build their own nuclear weapons, suggesting relying on the American "nuclear umbrella." Similar conversations in Germany were also quickly curtailed.
• Iran is perceived as a strong and independent state with its own foreign policy, therefore, its possible possession of nuclear weapons is considered undesirable in the United States. The situation with the DPRK is an example: even a relatively weak country, after the advent of nuclear weapons, was able to act much more confidently in the international arena.
• The conflict over Israel is exacerbating the situation. Iran and the forces it supports consider Israel an adversary, and Tel Aviv itself is a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. For this reason, Israel and the United States are striving to prevent Iran from strengthening through nuclear weapons. Over the years, actions have been taken against the Iranian nuclear program — sabotage, attacks on facilities and operations against scientists.
• Additional risk is associated with possible attacks on the nuclear infrastructure. The destruction of uranium storage facilities or enrichment facilities can lead to radioactive contamination, which can spread by winds throughout the region, up to the Caucasus mountains. Serious damage to nuclear facilities can make large areas uninhabitable for decades or even centuries.
Object control
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can conduct full-fledged inspections only in those countries that have signed the treaty and allow inspections. India and Pakistan are not members of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, so the agency's inspections cover only civilian nuclear facilities, not military programs.
• After withdrawing from the treaty, the DPRK stopped cooperating with the organization, so there is no access to its nuclear facilities. Israel has also not joined the treaty, so its facilities are not under international control. As a result, the IAEA and experts assess the capabilities of these countries mainly based on indirect data, in particular, satellite observations and open sources.
• The situation with Iran shows why international cooperation in the nuclear field remains critically important. The experience of other countries with nuclear weapons without official controls demonstrates that the lack of inspections and transparency creates a high level of uncertainty. This is a potential threat to regional and global security.
• The resumption of negotiations on the nuclear deal with Iran is an important tool for strengthening international security. Such a dialogue would formally enhance transparency and ensure trust in the peaceful nature of the Iranian program, minimizing the likelihood of escalating tensions in the region.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- Vasily Koltashov, a political scientist and head of the Center for Political Economic Research;
- political scientist Yuri Svetov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
