The shutdown of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has hit the entire world. And here's why

Global markets have been in a fever all week since the beginning of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Some analysts believe that so far the situation is developing according to the scenario of the United States, which hoped to cut off China from Middle Eastern energy supplies, but as a result, there were many more losers. How the escalation in the Persian Gulf affected the countries of the world is described in the Izvestia article.

Attacks on tankers

• The movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was almost stopped on March 1, after two ships were attacked in the Strait and another near the capital port of Muscat in Oman. Later, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is a unit of the Iranian armed forces, reported that the tankers were chartered by the United Kingdom and the United States and could be used to supply fuel to American warships.

• By March 4, the IRGC had destroyed more than 10 tankers using the Strait of Hormuz since the escalation began on February 28, when the United States and Israel began bombing Iran. Tehran has repeatedly denied the fact of the blockade of the sea corridor and confirmed this position on March 5, stating that it regulates navigation in the Strait in accordance with international protocols.

Gas and ready: Russia's withdrawal to more profitable markets will be a disaster for the EU

Meanwhile, China and India are buying up Russian oil at a price above the ceiling

• Meanwhile, a queue of more than 150 tankers has already accumulated at the entrance to the strait, and major container shipping operators are changing sea routes. The price of oil on world markets has reached $84 for Brent crude, while the Russian Urals brand is trading at $60. At the same time, foreign experts believe that in the event of a settlement of the conflict in the coming weeks, the price of Brent will return to the previous $ 65. The price of gas increased by almost 60% by Friday, after Moscow announced the possible termination of gas supplies to Europe.

Asia

• India and China are being saved by the large oil and gas reserves they previously built, but the countries fear that if the conflict in the Middle East drags on, they will face energy shortages. Due to the conflict, India has already lost access to half of its oil supplies and has asked Washington to suspend sanctions on trade with Russia.

• New Delhi has also restricted gas supplies to industry by 10-30% due to the shutdown of liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants in Qatar. India is the fourth largest importer of LNG and is heavily dependent on supplies from the Persian Gulf countries. New Delhi is unlikely to be able to fill the shortage with Russian gas, as it fears sanctions, and supplies from Yamal LNG, which have been withdrawn from restrictions, mostly go to Europe under long-term contracts.

Arrived: imported goods may rise in price by a third due to the conflict in the Middle East

Where will the cargo go bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and how will this affect prices?

• China has already recommended that refineries suspend fuel export contracts. Disruptions in oil supplies due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East are forcing enterprises to reduce production, and companies associated with Saudi Aramco have stopped work since March 3. At the same time, it is reported that deliveries under contracts already concluded in March will be fulfilled. China is a world leader in oil imports and one of the largest fuel exporters in Asia, so restrictions on exports from Chinese refineries may affect the markets as early as April.

• Amid tensions in the Middle East, China is already accelerating the construction of the Power of Siberia–2 gas pipeline to transport Russian gas. The project had been coordinated for 10 years, and Beijing was in no hurry to make a decision, as it was counting on its own production, supplies from Central Asia, and the development of nuclear and coal generation.

Europe

• Despite the fact that the EU disputes the gas shortage and does not want to introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector, Norway has stated that it will not be able to increase the supply of hydrocarbons to European consumers, since the country's gas production capacities are already operating at the limit of their capabilities. Norway is the leading supplier of gas to Europe and provides up to 30% of the EU's demand. Although the supply of liquefied natural gas on the European market has not decreased, prices for it have increased by 37% in two days since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East. As rising energy costs have led to a spike in electricity prices, the EU intends to review the pricing mechanism within the union.

Great again: Europe predicted an energy shock

The escalation in the Middle East brings the EU back to 2022

• Azerbaijan is one of the EU's energy suppliers: in the first 9 months of 2025, the EU increased oil purchases in the republic by 10%, and also became the largest consumer of Azerbaijani gas, purchasing 12.8 billion cubic meters — more than half of the total gas that Baku exports. But Azerbaijan will not be able to increase supplies to Europe in the near future, as it is forced to import energy itself. Russia is the main supplier of oil to the republic (92.3% of all imports in 2025), and Turkmenistan is the leader in gas supplies to the country (230 million cubic meters), while gas imports from Russia decreased by 6.7 times (21.24 million).

• The Middle East conflict is exacerbating the economic situation in the EU countries, which are forced to buy more expensive energy resources from the United States. A spike in fuel prices has already been noted in Poland, as gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas become more expensive. Polish refineries owned by the Orlen concern operate primarily on raw materials supplied from Saudi Arabia: Warsaw receives 60% of oil imports under a contract with Saudi Aramco. Hungary and Slovakia, which have long-term oil supply contracts that are not subject to European sanctions, feel more confident in these conditions.

USA

•The United States benefits from the situation as it increases supplies of its LNG and Venezuelan oil to Europe. At the same time, Americans have already felt the fuel imbalance in the world: the cost of gasoline in the United States has increased, and diesel has risen the most, for the production of which Middle Eastern oil is used.

• Rising oil prices can provide a payback for American shale production, which was in crisis, since before the escalation in the Middle East, the price per barrel on foreign markets was actually equal to cost. But shale energy production will be effective only if the Brent price remains above $80 for a year and a half.

Russia

• Rising energy prices on world markets will increase demand for Russian oil and gas, but it does not mean the lifting of sanctions. In the current situation, Russian suppliers can count on a reduction in the discount, but it is unlikely that company revenues will rise to pre-sanctions levels. In addition, the effect depends on the duration of the conflict: in the short run, the increase in oil prices is provided by futures, since there is still no real shortage of fuel on the markets.