Like old friends: what Lukashenko will talk about with Trump's envoy
US President Donald Trump's Special Envoy John Cole will arrive in Minsk in mid-March, his first visit since the beginning of the year. Following the results of the previous negotiations, which took place in December 2025, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko released more than a hundred prisoners. Washington, in turn, lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers. Izvestia figured out what to expect from a new meeting.
Burger in Belarusian
The US Special Envoy for Belarus, John Cole, will tour Eastern Europe in mid-March. According to Lithuanian media, he will arrive in Vilnius on March 18, and from there he will travel to Minsk. The details of the agenda are still unknown, but previous such visits ended with Alexander Lukashenko releasing some of the prisoners, and Washington easing the sanctions regime.
The preparations are visible even before the official announcement of the meeting. In particular, before March 8, the Belarusian leader pardoned 18 people, of whom 15 were convicted under extremist articles, that is, they apparently participated in the events of 2020. Lukashenko's press service emphasized that among the released 11 women, six have children, and one is in the last stages of pregnancy.
It is alleged that all those pardoned repented of their deeds, admitted their guilt, petitioned for release and promised to continue to lead a law-abiding lifestyle. John Cole thanked Lukashenko for this step in his social networks. Trump's envoy also noted that the American president expects further actions to free the prisoners.
The second interesting episode occurred when Lukashenko came to the restaurant chain "Mac.buy", which replaced McDonald's, which left the republic. There, the Belarusian leader said that "the Americans will arrive soon," and they should definitely be shown the restaurant. "Say, let's go to McDonald's and read: "Buy. Belarusian". Belarusians work, Belarusian equipment and products. Eat up," he said to Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov.
The Shadow of the Protests
Relations between Minsk and Washington have experienced several ups and downs over the years of Belarusian independence. Another sharp deterioration occurred after Alexander Lukashenko's victory in the presidential elections in 2020. At that time, mass protests took place in the country, and in the West the results of the vote were not recognized, relying on the opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
As a result, numerous sanctions were imposed against Minsk, which were only further tightened. In 2021, the reason was the forced landing of an aircraft flying on the Athens – Vilnius route. Opposition journalist Roman Protasevich was taken off the plane. In 2022, the next batch of restrictions was introduced after the start of its operation, at the same time the State Department suspended the work of the American embassy in Minsk and evacuated diplomats.
A new stage began after Donald Trump came to power in the United States. From the very beginning, he prioritized not ideological attitudes, but the principle of business transactions. In addition, he began to call the reconciliation of Russia with Ukraine and the reduction of Chinese influence in Eurasia his task. All this required normalization of relations with Belarus.
As a result, careful probing of the soil and establishing contacts began last winter. In February, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Smith visited Minsk. This was the first meeting of the Belarusian president with a high-ranking American official in five years. As a result, several participants of the 2020 protests were released.
Later, for about six months, everything followed the same pattern. One or another representative of the US administration came to Minsk, and each time the Belarusian authorities released a group of prisoners. Against this background, at the end of the summer, Donald Trump even called Alexander Lukashenko a "highly respected president," although Western leaders had not publicly indicated the position of the politician before.
At that time, Minsk apparently thought that symbolic gestures were enough, because they demonstrated a breakthrough in the diplomatic blockade. In autumn, the dialogue between the two countries intensified even more. First, Trump established the post of special envoy for Belarus, which raised Minsk quite a lot in the conditional table of ranks, because special envoys work in key areas for Washington. This position was taken by lawyer John Cole.
Secondly, it came to the actual lifting of sanctions. In exchange for more shipments of prisoners, Washington relaxed restrictions on Belavia Airlines in September, including allowing it to receive and send money to American counterparties. In December, it became known about the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, which are one of the main exports of the republic.
In a triangle with Moscow
As a result, the parties started talking about a big deal between the two countries. We are talking about the release of all Belarusian prisoners whom the West considers political, there are about 1,000 of them. In response, the United States will lift all sanctions and the embassies will be restored. "Everything is going to the point where we have to meet with Trump and come to an agreement," Alexander Lukashenko said in December.
However, there are also many obstacles. On the one hand, Minsk's main ally, Russia, calls for caution. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported in early February that "democratizing structures," including foundations and agencies from the United States, still want to shake up the situation and achieve a change in the state structure in Belarus. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin also said that the United States does not abandon the policy of pressure.
On the other hand, there are still many obstacles, even where the United States seems to have already moved forward. In particular, Belavia Airlines is allowed to operate only eight Boeing-737 narrow-body airliners, and the approval of the American regulator is required to obtain any spare parts. Belarusian potash, which has also ceased to be considered a sanctioned commodity, still cannot be exported through the Baltic ports, so it should still be exported through Russia.
Finally, two more notable events have soured the relationship recently. Firstly, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov was not given an American visa, so he could not attend the February meeting of the Peace Council in Washington. Secondly, Lukashenko, albeit rather cautiously, condemned the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, and congratulated the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei, on his election.
Actually, the three-month break in contacts that occurred after Cole's last visit in December suggests that a breakthrough is far away. It is likely that during the current visit, the traditional scenario will be repeated: the Belarusian authorities will release a batch of prisoners, Washington will announce the lifting of some restrictions, and politicians will continue to talk about an early normalization.
Focus on energy resources
There are many problems in relations between Minsk and Washington, Belarusian political scientist Pyotr Petrovsky emphasizes.
— Trump wants to return American goods to the market of the Union State, as well as demonstrate his commitment to the values of freedom and democracy, that is, to achieve the release of some of the prisoners. The Belarusian side demands to defuse the situation on its borders with NATO countries, where active militarization is taking place. Probably, our president is hoping to encourage Trump to put pressure on Poland and the Baltic States to reduce their aggressiveness," he explains.
The expert believes that the Belarusian side soberly assesses what is happening and understands that it will not be possible to build strategic relations with the United States, we can only talk about situational agreements. According to him, Lukashenko has repeatedly stressed that he considers relations with Russia, China, Iran and other allies to be a priority.
The main issue in the current negotiations will be the issue of energy resources, MGIMO Professor Kirill Koktysh, Doctor of Political Sciences, expects.
— The United States is in a crisis situation due to the Iranian war and disruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons. I do not rule out that Trump's envoy will try to negotiate the purchase of petroleum products produced at Belarusian refineries. Minsk will probably try to take advantage of the vulnerable position of the interlocutors and demand some kind of reciprocal concessions, although it is difficult to imagine what exactly this might be," he notes.
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