Tension calculation: why did Trump get in touch with Putin

A telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump, which took place on March 9, may help reduce tensions in the Middle East, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Russia has previously taken initiatives to de-escalate, including on the Iranian nuclear program. In addition to the Middle East agenda, the heads of state discussed diplomatic efforts on the Ukrainian settlement, as well as the situation on the global energy market.

Putin discussed with Trump the American operation against Iran

The Russian president and the American leader had their first telephone conversation in 2026. The conversation was already the 11th correspondence meeting between the heads of state. The previous conversation took place on December 29, 2025.

The current conversation lasted about an hour and was initiated by the American side, said Russian Presidential Aide for International Affairs Yuri Ushakov. The leaders focused on the situation around Iran and the process of negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement. According to the Kremlin representative, the conversation was businesslike, frank and constructive.

The leaders had a substantive exchange of views on the development of the situation in the Middle East. The Russian president outlined a number of considerations aimed at an early political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict over Iran. These proposals, as the Kremlin representative clarified, were formed, among other things, taking into account Moscow's contacts with the leadership of the Persian Gulf countries, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian and leaders of a number of other states. In turn, the head of the White House presented his own assessment of what is happening in the context of the military operation conducted by the United States and Israel.

The conversation between Putin and Trump could potentially help reduce tensions in the Middle East, says orientalist Leonid Tsukanov. According to him, Russia has previously taken initiatives to de-escalate the situation in the region, including in the context of the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program. At the same time, the expert notes, it will not be easy for the American administration to return the situation to a neutral level, since the United States has already incurred significant economic costs without achieving the stated goals of the operation.

The dialogue between the presidents may indicate Washington's readiness to seek a diplomatic way out of the conflict over Iran, Egor Toropov, an American analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, shared his opinion with Izvestia. According to him, the very fact of the leaders' contact against the background of the ongoing military operation indicates that the American side allows the confrontation to end in the coming weeks by political means.

Domestic political factors in the United States also play an important role in this logic. Toropov draws attention to the fact that Trump's ratings have recently shown stagnation amid unresolved economic issues, primarily related to rising food prices. In such a situation, relatively quick and demonstrative foreign policy steps can be used by the administration as a way to strengthen the Republican position on the eve of congressional elections.

The situation in the region remains extremely tense. According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, the number of civilian casualties as a result of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory has exceeded 1.3 thousand people. In Lebanon, the death toll from IDF strikes has risen to 486. At least 13 people have died in Israel during this time. The geography of the confrontation is gradually expanding.

At the same time, there are changes in the internal political situation in Iran. Russia became the first country to congratulate Mojtaba Khamenei on his election as the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In his message, Vladimir Putin noted that in the face of armed aggression, the new position will require courage and dedication from the Iranian leader.

Rising oil prices and the US reaction

During the conversation, the Presidents also touched upon the situation in Venezuela, primarily in the context of the situation on the global oil market. Oil prices have risen sharply amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict. If before the start of the US and Israeli military operation against Iran, quotes were below $ 70 per barrel, then on March 9 they exceeded $ 110, and at the moment they reached almost $119. However, after the phone conversation, the price of oil began to decline significantly.

The United States actually controls the export of Venezuelan oil, so the American president could inform the Russian side about the real production capabilities of Caracas and the prospects for increasing supplies to the world market, said Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America. According to him, this is directly related to the rise in oil prices amid the worsening situation in the Middle East.

"At the same time, Vladimir Putin had not previously publicly commented on Trump's Venezuelan adventure and could have informed him of the Russian assessment of these events, as well as expressed concern about attempts to oust Russian companies from the Venezuelan market," the expert told Izvestia.

At the same time, Washington is discussing the possibility of partial easing of sanctions against Russian oil. According to the Reuters news agency, such a move is being considered in connection with a sharp increase in global energy prices. Among the measures discussed may be both a "large—scale lifting of sanctions" and targeted measures, such as allowing the purchase of Russian oil without cuts and additional duties for certain countries, the agency's interlocutors say. An easing of sanctions could be announced as early as Monday, Reuters sources say.

Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor of Political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, believes that Operation Epic Fury, conducted by the United States and Israel, is gradually getting out of control, as evidenced by sharp fluctuations in global energy markets.

The expert noted to Izvestia that such a strong industry reaction makes further development of the conflict undesirable for Washington. At the same time, Iranian officials have so far announced their refusal to negotiate, which limits diplomatic opportunities for de-escalation. Tehran is ready for it if neighboring countries stop using it to attack Iran, said its president Masoud Peseshkian. In these circumstances, Russia, according to Loshkarev, remains one of the few international players capable of mediating and facilitating the launch of the negotiation process.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that Tehran had received contacts from a number of states, including China, Russia and France, regarding the ceasefire. However, Tehran puts forward a condition: any negotiations on a truce can take place only on condition that the hostile actions cease.

Loshkarev also does not rule out that the parties could have touched on the information background around the conflict, including media reports about the possible transfer of intelligence data by Russia to the Iranian side.

Putin praised Trump's efforts on Ukraine

In addition to the Middle East agenda, Putin and Trump discussed the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. The Russian president positively assessed the mediation efforts of the United States and the American leader personally, while Trump confirmed his interest in an early cease-fire and achieving a long-term political solution. As Ushakov noted, the conversation also described the situation on the line of contact.

Earlier, negotiations in the Russia—USA—Ukraine format took place in several stages: the first two rounds were held in Abu Dhabi in late January and early February, and the third in Geneva on February 17-18. The next round was supposed to be held in the UAE capital again, but the escalation of the conflict over Iran complicated the diplomatic agenda and forced the postponement of the meeting.

Murad Sadigzade, President of the Center for Middle East Studies, stressed that Kiev's position in recent months has remained tough, especially on the issue of territorial concessions, which limits the prospects for advancing negotiations. According to him, the situation can change only if the active phase of the conflict around Iran is quickly completed. In this case, Washington will be able to re-focus its diplomatic and political resources on the Ukrainian track, whereas now a significant part of the attention of the American administration, including representatives of the Pentagon and the State Department, is focused specifically on the Middle East issue.

The expansion of the crisis in the Middle East, as Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, previously noted to Izvestia, is capable of slowing down the dynamics of negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement. In addition, US President's special envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner, who represented the American side at the talks, are also actively involved in the work on the Middle East agenda.