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- Epidemic prologue: the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza is growing in 20 regions
Epidemic prologue: the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza is growing in 20 regions
Along with the warming that has come to the center of Russia and Siberia, the number of SARS and flu cases has increased — the figures have increased in at least 20 regions. At the same time, some experts have already characterized the increase in morbidity in February as a peak. Now experts are inclined to shift this indicator to the middle of March — according to them, the situation was affected by sudden temperature changes. The information about how the incidence rate will develop is in the Izvestia article.
Where the incidence is growing
At least 20 Russian regions recorded an increase in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections in the tenth week — from March 2 to March 8, Izvestia estimated. Thus, in the Tambov region, the number of cases increased by 7.8% compared to the previous period, the regional Rospotrebnadzor reported. And in the Novgorod region, the indicator increased by 2.1%.
"Adults make up 47.4% of the age group of patients, and children make up 52.5%. The increase in morbidity was registered in two age groups: among children aged 7-14 by 5.4% and among people over 15 by 4.2%," the regional department noted.
In the Penza region, the dynamics was +13.9%. The number of cases is also growing in the capital of the region: 223.5 cases per 100,000 people, an increase of 12.2% compared to the previous week.
According to Rospotrebnadzor of the Sverdlovsk region, a slight increase in the number of infected people was recorded in the region: 31 thousand people in the tenth week compared with 30.5 thousand people in the ninth. However, this figure is 24.4% higher than the long-term average.
"821 people were examined during the week: viruses of non—influenza etiology dominate," the department added.
In the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, only 79 cases of acute respiratory viral infections per 10,000 people were registered in the tenth week, but the incidence of influenza increased by 37% there. The majority of infected children are between three and six years old.
In St. Petersburg, the indicator increased by 4.9%, and in the Leningrad region by 20.4% compared to the previous week, Rospotrebnadzor reported.
The Astrakhan Region recorded an increase of 10.3%, the Primorsky Territory — by 14.3%, the Lipetsk Region — by 7.7%, and the Ryazan Region — by 3.4%. In the Tyumen region, the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections increased by 19.6%, while influenza, on the contrary, decreased by 41.3%.
"There is a decrease in the incidence of COVID-19 in the structure of the incidence of respiratory viral infections. Among the influenza viruses, isolated cases of influenza A virus have been reported. The proportion of hospitalized people with influenza and ARVI out of the total number of cases is 2%," explained the Rospotrebnadzor of Primorsky Krai.
The Stavropol Territory also recorded an increase of 12.3% compared to the previous week, but this figure is 1.5 times lower than the long-term average. In Udmurtia, the number of cases increased by 6%.
"The highest incidence rates of acute respiratory viral infections were registered in Zavyalovsky (1041.2 per 100,000 population), Balezinsky (1045.9 per 100,000 population) districts and the cities of Izhevsk (1085.2 per 100,000 population) and Mozhga (950.5 per 100,000 population)," the local Rospotrebnadzor added.
Growth was also recorded in the Murmansk, Voronezh, Orenburg, Irkutsk, Vladimir regions and Bashkiria.
In total, 678 thousand cases of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza were registered in Russia in the first week of March, Rospotrebnadzor reported. The previous week it was 677 thousand.
"The incidence rate corresponds to the middle of September 2025. According to the results of laboratory monitoring, the proportion of influenza viruses continues to decrease," the ministry added.
Dependence of infection on the weather
When warming occurs in autumn, winter and spring, there is an increase in morbidity, virologist and infectious disease specialist Nikolai Malyshev explained to Izvestia.
"The air is more humid, and the virus is more easily transmitted," he said. — The colder it is, the lower the incidence.
Sudden temperature fluctuations, sometimes cold, sometimes warm, which are now recorded in some regions of Russia, also lead to an increase in the number of cases, Nikolay Malyshev added. This growth is not directly due to the weather, but due to the desire of people to gather together under certain weather conditions.
— How does the weather affect you? Only indirectly through people," the doctor explained.
According to him, there is now a period when the number of cases should gradually begin to decrease.
In cold weather, the virus remains frozen, and when thawed, it can cause outbreaks, pediatrician and infectious disease specialist Evgeny Timakov told Izvestia.
— Weather changes, temperature fluctuations, lack of sun, vitamin deficiency. They all additionally contribute to a decrease in human immunity," he said.
For these reasons, the incidence is increasing in autumn and at the end of winter, Evgeny Timakov added.
— It usually peaks in early to mid-March. Most likely, the same thing will happen this year. Currently, there is still no peak in the incidence, in some regions there is an increase, in some there is a decrease. It depends on the weather conditions," the doctor said.
According to him, the incidence rate also depends on people: people who live permanently in harsh conditions are less sensitive to viruses than residents of megacities.
The ups and downs in the incidence of influenza do not depend directly on the weather, confirmed by Alexey Agranovsky, Professor of the Department of Virology at the Faculty of Biology of Lomonosov Moscow State University.
When will the growth of the disease end
There will be no new wave of SARS and influenza in Russia, believes Gennady Onishchenko, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Education.
— Monitoring has not revealed any new variants (of the virus. — Ed.) that have pandemic or epidemic potential," he said. — The growth is also due to the weather conditions that are developing - the temperature difference from heat to cold.
The seasonal rise in the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections has not yet ended, Gennady Onishchenko is sure.
"The recommendations that were given regarding personal hygiene, nutrition, rest, and follow—up in the event of a patient appearing in the family remain in force," the doctor added.
According to him, the more diligently Russians follow preventive measures, the sooner the seasonal rise in the incidence of influenza and SARS will end. This is expected to happen in April.
The incidence will decrease only in June and July, when everyone will leave for vacations, Evgeny Timakov believes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
