East Stream: escalation around Iran threatens Europe with a wave of refugees
Prolonged fighting in the Middle East could trigger large-scale population displacement not only from Iran, but also from neighboring countries in the region. In this case, Europe risks facing the largest influx of refugees in the last decade, comparable to or even exceeding the Syrian migration crisis. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency told Izvestia that it was closely monitoring the situation. The authorities of the countries of the region are discussing measures to strengthen border control. Potential flows may include Afghan refugees living in Iran, as well as residents of Lebanon and other countries in the Middle East, where the escalation of the conflict has already resulted in internal displacement.
European authorities are discussing measures in case of a sharp increase in migration
European countries fear a new large-scale migration crisis due to the escalation of the conflict around Iran. In the event of prolonged fighting, the refugee flow could become the largest in the last decade and surpass the consequences of the 2015-2016 Syrian crisis, when about 1 million people arrived in the EU.
While the United States and Israel continue their military operation against Iran, the European authorities are closely monitoring the risks of mass population displacement. The European Asylum Agency warns that if at least 10% of Iran's population — about 9 million people — are forced to leave their homes, Europe could face an unprecedented influx of refugees. The agency notes that even a partial destabilization of the republic can cause migration flows comparable to or exceeding the largest crises of recent decades.
The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) told Izvestia that it continues to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and its possible impact on migration flows. The organization stressed that they are in constant contact with EU countries and partners, and are ready to provide support to national border services, if necessary. At the same time, the agency refused to disclose details of possible response plans, citing operational considerations.
So far, no mass exodus from the country has been recorded. According to the European Commission, at the moment there are no signs of noticeable changes in migration flows. Before the current escalation, Iranian citizens ranked only 31st in the number of asylum seekers in Europe.
Nevertheless, Brussels is already considering various scenarios for the development of the situation. European institutions fear not only a possible exodus of Iranians, but also the displacement of millions of Afghan refugees who previously found refuge in the Islamic Republic. Economic collapse, destruction of infrastructure and possible internal instability may push them out of the country.
European states certainly consider the possible influx of refugees from Iran as a potential threat to their own security, said Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry. But, in his opinion, the current situation is significantly different from the migration crisis of 2015-2016, when Germany, under the leadership of Angela Merkel, accepted more than a million refugees, which exacerbated migration and political problems throughout Europe.
"The likely strategy of European states in the event of a wave of refugees would be to place them on the territory of third countries, in the Middle East and Africa, and carefully infiltrate them into Europe, if necessary," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.
Additional risks are associated with the humanitarian situation in Iran itself. The World Health Organization warns of possible air pollution with toxic compounds after strikes on the oil infrastructure. According to WHO representatives, fires in oil storage facilities and processing plants have led to the release of dangerous hydrocarbons into the atmosphere, which can cause so—called black rain - precipitation containing polluting particles. Experts note that such phenomena can provoke breathing problems, skin and eye irritation, and with prolonged exposure they increase the risk of serious diseases.
The European authorities are already discussing measures in case of a sharp increase in migration. Among them are the acceleration of asylum denial procedures, increased deportations, new agreements with Turkey based on the 2016 migration deal model, as well as additional assistance to the so—called countries of first entry — Greece, Italy and Bulgaria. Some States are already tightening their approach to potential asylum applicants. Greece announced stricter control of applications from Iranian citizens. A number of Eastern European countries are opposed to accepting a new wave of migrants.
European leaders fear that the migration crisis could intensify internal political divisions in the EU. The experience of the mid-2010s showed that a sharp influx of refugees can lead to increased support for right-wing parties, tighter border controls and confrontation between the Union states.
How much does it cost to rent an apartment in Beirut
The situation in the neighboring States of the region is of additional concern. The conflict has already provoked massive internal displacement in Lebanon. According to the UN and the Lebanese authorities, the escalation began and by March 11, almost 700,000 people had fled their homes. There are about 200 thousand children among them. The main flow of displaced people is in the south of the country, the southern suburbs of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.
According to the Lebanese Office of Emergency Situations, more than 110,000 people are in official shelters, but the actual number of displaced is much higher. If the fighting expands, some of these people may try to leave the region. The potential routes coincide with those used by migrants to reach Europe during previous crises — through Syria, Turkey, the Balkans and the Mediterranean Sea. In Europe, it is feared that Syrian refugees living in Lebanon, as well as Palestinians from camps, may be added to the possible flow from Iran.
The head of the Moscow office of the Lebanese TV channel Al Mayadeen, Musalam Sheaito, told Izvestia that his relatives from a village in southern Lebanon were under Israeli air strikes. According to him, the bombing began at the moment when he was on the air. So far, his own house has survived, but most of his relatives have been forced to leave their homes and move to different parts of the country.
The interlocutor noted that the conditions of accommodation largely depend on the financial situation of people. Those who have the means are trying to rent a house, but the cost of rent has increased dramatically. Many families cannot afford an apartment and are forced to live with relatives, in hotels or in public schools turned into temporary accommodation centers.
According to Sheaito, the conditions there are extremely difficult: there is virtually no kitchen and normal household infrastructure, people use shared bathrooms. At first, his relatives only found a room in a hotel where a large family of five people was accommodated. Later, they managed to rent an apartment in Beirut, but the rent costs about $ 1.2 thousand per month.
Many, he said, were unable to find housing at all. People are setting up temporary tents on the Beirut waterfront and in other areas of the city.
The source added that there is practically no government assistance. Last year, Hezbollah structures provided support to displaced persons, helping people with housing and money.
However, as Sheaito noted, in the current conflict, these opportunities are limited. According to him, the Israeli strikes targeted financial infrastructure related to funds that provided people with assistance or interest-free loans. The situation of civilians is complicated by rising prices. During the war, the cost of food, services, and rental housing increases dramatically — sometimes by almost half.
A Lebanese woman involved in helping displaced people told Al Mayadeen that residents are helping people who have left their homes on their own. According to her, public spaces are used as accommodation centers, where volunteers deliver mattresses and basic necessities. Hot meals are prepared daily in home kitchens, which are then delivered to various temporary accommodation facilities. She added that families constantly come to her house seeking help and shelter, so now the main task of the volunteers is to collect as many mattresses as possible in order to transfer them to the accommodation centers.
Israel is facing an outflow of population
European experts attribute a separate risk to the possible outflow of the population from Israel. In recent years, the country has already recorded a negative migration balance: according to official data, 69 thousand people left Israel in 2025, while about 19 thousand returned. The prolonged war and regular missile strikes have increased the sense of instability, especially among new returnees.
According to Israeli media estimates, tens of thousands of citizens remain abroad after traveling, and some of the newly arrived immigrants are considering returning to their home countries. We are talking primarily about immigrants from Europe, the United States and the post-Soviet countries. Although we are not talking about a mass exodus yet, experts admit that with a protracted war, some of them may choose to move to more stable countries, including Europe.
Another risk factor is the situation in the Persian Gulf countries, where, according to estimates by the International Labor Organization, between 24 million and 31 million migrants work. They play a key role in the region's economy, from construction and the oil industry to the service sector.
Since early March, Iran has retaliated against a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. As a result of the attacks, people died, most of whom turned out to be foreign workers. Their countries of origin — primarily India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines — have already begun to prepare evacuation plans for citizens. However, in the event of an economic crisis, some migrants may try to seek work and security in Europe.
The leaders of several countries are calling for an early settlement of the conflict. During a telephone conversation, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called for a cessation of hostilities and a solution to the crisis in the Middle East through political and diplomatic means. The Russian leader also thanked the Azerbaijani side for its assistance in evacuating Russian citizens from Iran after the attacks by the United States and Israel. Earlier, the head of Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, said that the second stage of the removal of Russian personnel and their family members from the Bushehr NPP ended on the night of March 11: about 150 people are heading to Russia through the territory of Armenia. At the same time, about 450 Russian specialists continue to work at the station.
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