Cloud of problems: Central Asia is sounding the alarm over the Iranian war
In Central Asia, it is reported that a toxic cloud is approaching the region, which was formed after the explosions at Iranian oil storage facilities. She allegedly provokes acid rain and exacerbation of many chronic diseases, although local forecasters deny everything. In general, the events in the Islamic Republic are very worrying for the authorities and residents of Central Asia. The main risks are refugee flows, the activation of Islamists and the rise in oil prices. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Were you upset
The Red Crescent Organization reported that after the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian oil storage facilities, many toxic hydrocarbon compounds, as well as nitrogen and sulfur oxides, entered the atmosphere. At the same time, eyewitnesses posted photos and videos of huge black clouds over Tehran and other cities.
It is expected that the high concentration of chemicals in the atmosphere will lead to acid rain, which is extremely dangerous for humans. They cause chemical burns to the skin, and their vapors damage the respiratory tract and lungs. In this regard, Iranians were advised to stay at home, cover the windows with damp rags and not drink water from open sources.
In Central Asia, because of this, alarm bells also began to sound - the wind rose there is such that air masses from the Islamic Republic are moving precisely towards Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and other countries in the region. Against this background, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources of Kyrgyzstan Assel Raimkulova even asked meteorologists to closely monitor the state of the atmosphere.
At the same time, travel industry experts emphasize that tours have not yet been canceled, although information memos for visitors to the region are being prepared. They say that in case of dangerous precipitation, all planned activities such as excursions and hiking in the mountains will be canceled, and a respirator will be required to go outside.
Later, local weather forecasters said that the danger was greatly exaggerated. Uzbek meteorologists, in particular, noted that acid precipitation usually falls near the site of pollution, and when air masses are transported, the concentration of harmful substances decreases. The Kazakh Center for Countering Disinformation advised to contact only official sources of information.
Jump across the Caspian Sea
There are enough dangers for Central Asia in the current situation without threats to the environment. One of them is the influx of refugees. While the countries of the region are evacuating their citizens from the war zone, thousands of people are counting. For example, Uzbekistan helped 25,000 compatriots return home, Kazakhstan transported 8.5 thousand people to their homeland, and a 24-hour humanitarian corridor was opened at the border in Turkmenistan for people to pass through.
If the fighting continues and the situation in the Persian Gulf countries is further destabilized, the flow of people will increase. Most of the migrants will probably move towards a more prosperous Europe, but the nearby Central Asian states will also have a hard time.
At the same time, local experts are discussing who will be the hardest hit. According to a number of opinions, Tajikistan, although the closest to Iranians in culture and language, will not be able to accept a large number of migrants due to poverty. Turkmenistan, due to the peculiarities of the political regime, will also be a transit country, but Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan should allegedly prepare for the influx of Iranians.
At the same time, Kazakhstan is closely monitoring this situation. Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Bakayev said that special protocols for receiving people are already ready, "this issue is under control." In turn, local expert Sheripzhan Nadyrov noted that the republic is able to accept a maximum of 25 thousand refugees, a larger number will be a serious blow to the economy.
The second important point is the growing threat of activation of radical Islamists. If the US-Israeli coalition succeeds in provoking internal turmoil in Iran, the risk will become quite real. Some of the local elite and the armed forces may "go into autonomy." This is approximately how the Islamic State terrorist organization, banned in Russia, was formed after the war in neighboring Iraq and against the background of the civil war in Syria.
The threat is particularly relevant for Central Asian countries because there are many fighters from the region who fought in Syria. Against the background of new tensions, they can move closer to the borders of their countries, and if circumstances are successful for themselves, they can launch new attacks. The risks of uncontrolled arms trafficking and increased smuggling flows are also increasing.
The current conflict also has a geopolitical aspect. For a long time, Turkey has been working to strengthen its position in the region through the Organization of Turkic States. In this sense, Iran acts as a counterweight and an obstacle, because the tandem of Turkey and Azerbaijan is separated from the Central Asian states by the Caspian Sea and the territory of the Islamic Republic. If Iran is defeated, it will cease to be a significant player, in which case Ankara's position will be further strengthened.
Possible consequences
However, the threats to Central Asia due to the events in Iran look exaggerated, according to Kazakh political analyst Rustam Burnashev.
— I am sure that we will not have significant numbers of refugees due to the events in the Middle East, we are not in contact with Iran on the issue of human flows. The issue of the growth of extremist threats is also very vague. The government in Iran, even after the death of the supreme leader, demonstrates stability, institutions are working, and no Syrian scenario is visible," he explains.
At the same time, certain consequences are already noticeable in the economy, the expert clarifies. First of all, we are talking about rising energy prices.
— Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan export their hydrocarbons, so this is rather a plus for them. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are purchasing resources, so the situation is unpleasant for them. I also note the changes in the logistics sector. Transport corridor projects that were supposed to connect Central Asia with the Persian Gulf were tied to Iran, and now everything is on hold," he says.
Much, however, will depend on how this war ends, says political scientist, director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies Alexander Kobrinsky. He expects terrible consequences if Iran is defeated.
— The United States will actually enter the Caspian coast, they will further strengthen their positions in Transcaucasia, and the North–South corridor project, which connects Russia with the countries of the Global South, will be destroyed. They will also actually enter Central Asia in formations. At the same time, Turkey will strengthen its position in the region, which is now being counterbalanced by Iran. Russia will have huge problems with this development," the expert warns.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
