The analyst predicted oil prices after the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Leading Analyst at the National Energy Security Fund (NWF) Igor Yushkov expressed the opinion that in the event of a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, oil prices will rise gradually and, as expected, will not exceed $ 150 per barrel.

In conversation with Lenta.Ru On Thursday, March 5, the expert explained that the price of oil has not yet exceeded $ 100 per barrel, since the fighting began over the weekend, when the stock exchanges were closed and the market did not have time to react psychologically. In addition, significant volumes of oil accumulated on tankers, including Russian ones, remain a deterrent. According to him, traders at the beginning of the year were in no hurry to sell raw materials due to low prices and preferred to store them in anticipation of increased demand in the spring. Now, the expert noted, it is these reserves that are being actively consumed, including off the coast of China and India.

Yushkov also pointed out that the International Energy Agency has declared the readiness of countries to share strategic oil reserves, which also keeps prices from a sharp jump. He added that as reserves decrease, the deficit may gradually increase, but with a gradual increase in prices, the market will have time to adapt: at a level of about $ 100-110 per barrel, consumption will begin to decrease, so oil, in his opinion, will not reach the $150 mark.

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Earlier on March 5, Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, stressed that blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices. Blokhin noted that about 15-20% of the world's oil and more than 30% of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so this route is of key importance for the global economy. 360.ru .

March 3, Leading Analyst at the National Energy Security Fund (NWF) Igor Yushkov said that oil prices will depend on how long shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and LNG passes, will be disrupted. According to him, another factor is strikes on oil facilities, including in Saudi Arabia, writes RT.

On March 2, Yushkov said that a reduction in oil supply on the market could play into Russia's hands. According to him, prices of up to $100 per barrel remain optimal, and in the event of a decrease in exports from Iran, China may switch to Russian oil, which will increase demand and reduce the discount, writes NSN.

On February 28, Candidate of Economic Sciences Sergey Suverov announced the website kp.ru that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, then oil prices will be high.

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