The Iranian vacuum cleaner: what the war in the Middle East is changing for Ukraine
The war in the Middle East could have critical consequences for Ukraine. Prices for hydrocarbons are rising, which is why Russia gets more money for its oil and gas. But for Kiev, fuel is getting more expensive. Scarce American weapons and ammunition are also being spent on the new front, which means that this equipment does not reach Ukraine. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What happened
The war between the United States and Israel with Iran has been going on for six days. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's spiritual leader, as well as many heads of government agencies and law enforcement agencies, were killed in rocket and bomb attacks on the Islamic Republic. Numerous administrative buildings have been vandalized in Tehran and other cities. During one of the attacks, a girls' school in the city of Minab was bombed, killing more than 150 people.
Iran retaliates by attacking Israel, as well as American bases and oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East. In addition, Tehran is opening and closing the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the world ocean. And about 20% of world oil exports and 30% of liquefied natural gas exports pass through this waterway.
Apparently, we are talking about a long-term conflict. American officials say they expect to complete the operation in a few weeks, but they are ready to fight longer. According to Politico, the conflict may last at least 100 days, or even until September. According to a number of reports, the Americans are also arming Kurdish forces to provoke a civil war in Iran. At the same time, Tehran emphasizes that they are not going to give up and are ready to confront the United States and Israel "as long as it takes."
The topic of Ukraine has receded into the background against this background, although Kiev is still remembered in the context of the war in the Middle East. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Ukrainian drone pilots could shoot down Iranian drones in the Persian Gulf countries. Vladimir Zelensky responded by saying that Kiev was ready to help, but for this to happen, Ukraine needed to ensure a truce.
What will be the consequences
If the fighting in the Middle East drags on, Ukraine will inevitably face serious consequences. In particular, due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of the oil and gas infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries, energy prices have crept up. The price of Brent crude oil increased by 16% in a few days, exceeding $85 per barrel. General Ibrahim Jabari, an adviser to the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said that the price could soon jump to $200 per barrel.
Gas prices are also breaking records. Particularly important in this regard was the announcement by the Qatari state-owned energy company about a pause in LNG production. As a result, for the first time in three years, the cost of natural gas in Europe exceeded $700 per 1,000 cubic meters.
Russia will receive additional income in such conditions. According to a number of reports, India has already resumed purchases of Russian oil. China, apparently, will also be forced to replace the lost volumes of Iranian fuel. Finally, even in Europe, they are talking about a partial and temporary lifting of anti-Russian sanctions in order to somehow stabilize their own energy market.
Ukraine is an energy—deficient country - Kiev does not sell fuel, but buys it, that is, it critically depends on imports. In such conditions, energy costs are increasing. Actually, there has already been a spike in prices at Ukrainian gas stations.
"Gas station sales increased by 50% against the background of the latest news, and prices jumped due to the hype. On average, the cost of a liter of 95 gasoline has increased by 5 hryvnias (9 rubles) per liter," says Ukrainian energy analyst Sergey Kuyun.
The second point is related to the fact that Kiev may face a shortage of the most important types of weapons. First of all, we are talking about scarce air defense systems and ammunition for them.
"We may have difficulties acquiring missiles and weapons to protect the airspace. The Americans and their allies may need them in the Middle East," Vladimir Zelensky said in this regard.
It is known that the American defense concern Lockheed Martin produces about 600 rounds of ammunition for the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) and up to 100 rounds of ammunition for the THAAD air defense system per year. This is not enough even for Ukraine alone. Now, this volume will also have to be shared with Israel and the Persian Gulf countries, because the "vacuum cleaner of the Iranian war" will suck out a significant part of the equipment. In addition, Kiev may face a shortage of intelligence data, as the United States will focus on gathering information about Iran.
Finally, Washington may require its European allies to increase their contribution to the fighting in the Middle East, and they will have to do so. At the same time, assistance to Kiev will decrease due to limited budgets and military reserves of the EU countries.
Military actions against Iran may also distract the attention of the largest Western media and the entire international community from the events in Ukraine. Something similar has already happened during the exacerbations in the Middle East in October 2023 and June 2025, but then they were short-term escalations. Now we are talking about a long-term trend. If this happens, it will be more difficult for Kiev to gain support and win over wavering politicians and entire countries.
To avoid this, the Ukrainian leadership may decide to take desperate steps. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in late February and early March that Kiev, with the support of the special services of some Western countries, was preparing to undermine the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream pipelines in the Black Sea. "We'll see what happens in this area, but this is a very dangerous game, especially today," the Russian leader noted.
What the experts say
Ukraine's situation has deteriorated significantly due to the war in the Middle East, confirms political analyst Dmitry Rodionov.
— For a whole week, everyone has been talking about Iran and the Middle East, that is, for a week now, European citizens have not been composting their brains with ideas about how important it is to feed Ukraine so that it fights Russia. Kiev's informational and mental support is decreasing. Plus, financial support is being depleted, because, as they say, the Bolivar can't stand two people. The Americans and Israelis desperately need missiles for air defense systems, they cannot produce these weapons quickly, so they will have to cut supplies to Ukraine," he explains.
The balance of power is also influenced by rising fuel prices, which increase the attractiveness of Russian energy resources, the expert notes. This has a positive effect on the economy of the Russian Federation, which leads to an acceleration of the pace of advance of Russian troops in the zone of their defense.
— Besides, the negotiation process on Ukraine is currently on pause, that is, the US diplomatic pressure on Russia has decreased. Our army can safely move towards its goals. The main question is how long the conflict in the Middle East will last. If the fighting drags on, then all these trends will be sustainable," the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes.
Dmitry Zhuravlev, a researcher at the Institute of Regional Problems and a political scientist, calls the US shift of attention from Ukraine to the Middle East the main consequence for Kiev.
— America has been distracted from Eastern Europe. I admit that this is a deliberate move — the United States is not doing well in Ukraine, so we decided to try our hand in another region. If things don't work out with Iran in the near future, their credibility will fall even lower. In any case, all this tossing and turning is not from a good life. It is important for Washington to win at least somewhere, to somehow show a positive result for itself. But whether it will work is a big question," the expert says.
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