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- Under threat of explosion: Israel has ruled out the possibility of dialogue with the Iranian authorities
Under threat of explosion: Israel has ruled out the possibility of dialogue with the Iranian authorities
Israel considers the dialogue with the current Iranian leadership to be completely exhausted, the Knesset told Izvestia. And the country's defense minister, Yisrael Katz, promised that any successor to Supreme leader Ali Khamenei would be "an unequivocal target for elimination." It is obvious that the United States and Israel are betting not on ending the conflict, but on further weakening the Iranian political, military and religious leadership. In Iran itself, after the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, the issue of succession to power came to the fore. There are several candidates named to take the post of supreme leader. But experts note: Whoever becomes one, they will not be able to take a course towards de-escalation, since any steps in this direction would mean actually accepting the conditions of the United States and Israel. Thus, the positions of both sides lead to the continuation of the confrontation.
Whose installations will be performed by the new rahbar
Iranian religious figures who are members of the Council of Experts are forced to consult remotely. A face—to—face meeting in the city of Qom, one of the key spiritual centers of the Shiite world, proved impossible after the attack on the complex where the council's structures were located.
The Council of Experts, consisting of 88 senior clerics, is formed by popular vote and is responsible for choosing a new rakhbar. Until the relevant decision is made, the powers of the head of state have been temporarily redistributed between the tripartite governing body. At the same time, Ali Khamenei did not name an official successor. One of the most likely candidates is his son Mojtaba, but it is not known where he is or even if he is alive.
The city of Qom has a special significance for the Iranian political and religious system and is considered the main holy city of the country. The country's largest Shiite seminary is located here, and Ali Khamenei and a number of former Iranian presidents studied here. It was Qom that became one of the starting points of the 1979 Islamic Revolution: the first mass protests against the Shah's regime began here in 1978 and marked the beginning of the process that led to the creation of the Islamic Republic.
Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 in Mashhad, served in the armed forces during the Iran-Iraq War, and later studied and taught at the Qom Seminary. He was considered an influential but non-public figure, and according to experts, he could have played a role in suppressing the 2009 protests. In 2019, he was sanctioned by the United States. As a result of the February 28 airstrike, in addition to his father, several of his relatives, including his wife and son, were killed.
Mojtaba Khamenei
Other possible candidates include Alireza Arafi, a member of the interim governing council, head of the seminary system, member of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts. He was appointed to key posts by Ali Khamenei himself. He is considered an influential candidate, who is often called a "dark horse."
Among the figures discussed is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, who has religious legitimacy but does not have significant influence in power circles and is known for more moderate views. In addition, Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri, a representative of the most conservative wing of the clergy and a member of the Assembly of Experts, is mentioned. He speaks out with harsh anti-Israeli and anti-Western rhetoric, and heads the Academy of Islamic Sciences in Qom.
Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expressed doubt in an interview with Izvestia that the new supreme leader of Iran would be able to take a course towards de-escalation. According to him, any steps in this direction would mean the actual acceptance of the conditions of the United States and Israel, which the country's leadership cannot accept. Under these conditions, drastic changes in the policy of the Islamic Republic cannot be expected.
"The tactic of the Americans and Israelis is to remove layers of military and political leadership, eliminating key figures step by step in order to reach those potential leaders who could shape a new Iranian policy under pressure from Israeli and US intelligence agencies," Vladimir Sazhin said.
At the same time, the expert added that the new supreme leader will be limited in independence and will have to rely on the forces behind his nomination, since the struggle of the elites around the transit of power remains acute.
— Whoever is elected to this high post will not be experienced enough in solving the most complex internal, external, and military problems that the Islamic Republic is currently facing. Therefore, of course, he will carry out those installations that will give him the forces behind his back. There will be a big fight during the nomination and election," said Vladimir Sazhin.
Israel is not ready for a settlement with Iran
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said that any successor to Iran's supreme leader would be "an unequivocal target for elimination, <...> no matter what his name is or where he hides." He wrote about this on March 4 on the social network X.
Israel continues its large-scale military campaign. A "broad wave of strikes" was announced against government facilities in Tehran, including areas where government authorities are located. Explosions were recorded in Iranian cities for the fourth night in a row.
Yevgeny Sova, deputy Speaker of the Knesset and a member of the Our Home Israel party, told Izvestia that he sees no prerequisites for dialogue with the current Iranian regime, stressing that the "joint preventive measures" of Israel and the United States are dictated by Tehran's nuclear program, the increase in the number of ballistic missiles, support for proxy groups and the harsh suppression of protests inside countries.
— When these four reasons disappear and the Iranian people replace the current government, I am sure that Israel and Iran will restore diplomatic relations, as it was before 1979. We have no problems with the Iranian people," Evgeny Sova summed up.
At the same time, attacks continue on Lebanese territory, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah announced rocket and drone strikes against Israeli military installations, calling it a response to Israeli shelling of Lebanese territory.
Strikes on Beirut, Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces deployed additional forces to southern Lebanon after the Lebanese military withdrew from a number of border positions, the Washington Post reported, citing sources. According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the Lebanese army made this decision after reports of Israel's intention to occupy part of the territory near the five heights. Under these conditions, tensions in Lebanon are gradually increasing, and the situation risks repeating the scenario of a full-scale war in the south of this country, similar to the events of autumn 2024.
The US is involving the Kurds in the war
The conflict is rapidly expanding. Initially, Tehran stated that it was striking exclusively at American bases, but in a short time the geography of attacks changed. Destruction of civil infrastructure and damage to airports in the Persian Gulf countries are being recorded.
Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth announced the arrival of additional fighter jets and bombers in the Middle East, saying that the past few days of the operation are just the beginning. According to the Minister of War, the United States has already withdrawn more than 90% of its units from a possible retaliatory strike by Iran, and within a week the US and Israeli Air Forces intend to achieve complete dominance in the Iranian skies.
The geography of the confrontation has expanded to the borders of NATO. According to the Turkish Defense Ministry, an Iranian ballistic missile, flying through the airspace of Iraq and Syria, was shot down on approach to the Turkish coast in the Mediterranean Sea. The wreckage of an interceptor missile fell near the city of Dertyol.
This incident coincided with the activity of the European powers. France has decided to send an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean Sea, as well as deploy fighter jets, air defense systems and radar equipment. The UK reported the interception of drones during operations to protect Jordanian airspace. Pakistan, in the course of contacts with Iranian representatives, allowed the possibility of providing support to Saudi Arabia in the event of further attacks on the Persian Gulf countries.
The fighting has already affected the territory of the UAE: a drone strike was recorded in the area of the US consulate in Dubai, after which a fire broke out. The US authorities began organizing evacuation charter flights for US citizens from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, and embassies in several countries in the region were closed.
According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, 787 people have been killed in Iran since the beginning of the US-Israeli strikes. The US military reported the deaths of six US citizens, while the Israeli side reported at least 11 dead. In Lebanon, the number of victims of airstrikes has exceeded fifty. Deaths were also recorded in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Oman. In the capital of Kuwait, a girl died from injuries sustained during the collapse of a building.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that in the coming hours and days, the US military will significantly increase the scale and intensity of attacks on Iran.
At the same time, according to Western media reports, the United States and Israel are working on scenarios for the involvement of Kurdish formations. It is reported that the American administration has contacts with armed Iranian Kurdish groups. The Kurdish forces have requested military support from the United States and are negotiating possible CIA assistance in the supply of weapons. Kurdish leaders have been in contact with the Trump administration in recent days, hoping to create conditions for an uprising in Iran against the Islamic regime.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov believes that the idea of using the Kurdish factor against Iran is not new, primarily for Israel, and attempts will be made to involve Kurdish forces in the conflict. However, according to him, their potential is limited: even in a favorable scenario, we can talk about a maximum of 50,000 fighters, while the groups are scattered and need external support.
"Effectiveness is possible only with the active participation of the Israeli and US Air Forces, which will actually lead to the creation of a controlled zone on Iranian territory and the further formation of opposition structures," the expert told Izvestia.
Drawing the Kurds into the military campaign will require constant air support and will be a step towards further escalation.
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