Syunik and refugees: war in the Middle East could blow up Transcaucasia

The new war in the Middle East is radically changing the balance of power in Transcaucasia. The main victim is Armenia, which was in close relations with Iran. The positions of the Turkic tandem — Azerbaijan and Turkey - are strengthening, which can now make additional claims to Yerevan. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

What happened

The war between the United States and Israel with Iran lasts for four days. Since then, dozens of rocket and bomb attacks have been carried out on Tehran and other cities, numerous administrative buildings have been destroyed, among the dead are the spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, and a number of other heads of departments and law enforcement agencies. Iran retaliates by attacking Israel and American bases in the Middle East.

There is no need to wait for the end of hostilities soon. Donald Trump said the military operation would last "as long as it takes." "From the very beginning, we planned [the operation] for four to five weeks, but we have the opportunity to last much longer," he said. On March 3, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the most devastating blows were yet to come.

In this regard, the situation in Transcaucasia is extremely alarming. The fact is that Armenia and Azerbaijan have about 700 km of land border with the Islamic Republic, and Georgia also maintains relations with Tehran. In the current conditions, the passengers of the flights were the first to feel the aggravation of the situation — most flights to the Middle East were canceled at all airports in the region.

The second important point is the reception of refugees. So far, the flow is quite limited — Azerbaijan has received 550 people, 114 of them Russian citizens, and increased activity is recorded at the Armenian checkpoints. It is emphasized that most of these people are not officially considered refugees, they cross the land border due to the closure of airspace and the cancellation of flights.

Nevertheless, the stories of the displaced indicate an extremely difficult situation. For example, Arsine, an ethnic Armenian who lived in Tehran and urgently returned to Armenia, said that the shelling in Iran began on Saturday morning. "I followed my 6-year-old son to school in fear. The road, which I usually drive in 10 minutes, took about three hours. People were running in panic with their children, and there were explosions everywhere. Then they started beating us near our house," she said.

According to her, attacks in Iran were carried out not only on military infrastructure, but also on civilian targets. "You open the window in Tehran and you can see where the strikes were, smoke is rising everywhere. It's not safe at home. Schools, hospitals, everything are already being hit. We were scared and realized that there was no way out, so we decided to go to Armenia," she said. The woman added that there are serious communication problems in the country, most of the shops are closed.

What will be the consequences

If the fighting in the Middle East drags on, the situation in Transcaucasia will become noticeably more complicated. One of the problems is the flow of the same refugees. There are about 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in Iran, and if the conflict escalates, these people may flock to their historical homeland. For a small Armenia, this will be a serious burden, especially since in the recent past the republic has already received more than 100 thousand migrants from Karabakh on its territory.

For Baku, this issue is even more difficult — there are from 10 to 25 million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Iran, that is, more than in Azerbaijan itself. At the same time, the land border of the republic is closed, the passage is carried out, in fact, in manual mode. At the same time, it is difficult to imagine how the border guards will act if they have to face a wave of hundreds of thousands of people.

Gevorg Minasyan, Armenia's former plenipotentiary envoy to the CIS Anti-Terrorism Center, says the humanitarian crisis threatens all countries in the region. "I am sure that at the first stage there will be refugee flows in Armenia. Since Azerbaijan's land borders have been closed since the COVID pandemic, attempts to break through the border are not excluded," he notes. According to him, operational headquarters should be deployed in the region to receive people and special services should be involved in filtering arrivals.

In addition, the conflict will inevitably have economic consequences. I must say that the countries of the region have a relatively small bilateral trade turnover with Iran. For example, exports of goods from Armenia to the Islamic Republic account for only 1%, while imports account for about 4%. Russia and China are far ahead in these indicators, but Iran plays an important role in transit, because many goods enter Transcaucasia precisely through the southern border.

Numerous infrastructure projects will also be in question. This includes the North-South transport corridor, which connects Russia with the Middle East and South Asia through Iran and Azerbaijan. The region's role in the project of the Middle Corridor or the Trans-Caspian Transport Route, which should link China with Europe, is also under threat.

Finally, serious military and political changes cannot be ruled out. On the one hand, if Iran weakens, Azerbaijan can step up efforts in those areas of the country where ethnic Azerbaijanis live. Certain hints in this sense have been heard for quite some time. "In some countries where Azerbaijanis live, there are no Azerbaijani schools. This is a great injustice, and this injustice must come to an end," Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a recent interview.

In addition, Armenia's situation will become noticeably more complicated. Iran has long been Yerevan's main ally in the region. In many ways, it was Tehran's efforts that prevented Azerbaijan and Turkey from creating the Zangezur (Syunik) corridor, which would connect the two countries. If the Islamic Republic withdraws from business, Baku and Ankara may again be tempted to resolve this issue in their favor.

What the experts say

Andrei Areshev, a political scientist and expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation, emphasizes that events in Iran can destabilize Transcaucasia.

— Everything can lead to an increase in separatist sentiments, rampant crime, refugee flows and an out-of-control situation. Turkey and Azerbaijan will begin to take coordinated actions due to the banal necessity and will jointly respond to emerging challenges. There are different scenarios, including hypothetical humanitarian operations. There may be such a mess brewing that the conflict in Ukraine will seem like a cakewalk," he notes.

Caucasian scholar Artur Ataev says that the weakening of Iran will have the least impact on Georgia, because Tehran and Tbilisi have few contacts.

— Armenia will be the most affected. From an economic point of view, the Islamic Republic was a window to the Middle Eastern world for Yerevan. There have also been intensive contacts between the two countries on the geopolitical side. Let me remind you that just five days before the start of the current war, the defense ministers of Armenia and Iran met. Azerbaijan will probably benefit the most. Firstly, energy prices are rising, and hence Baku's profits. Secondly, the tandem of Turkey and Azerbaijan will strengthen in the region," he argues.