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- The cost of the burden: mortgage overpayment almost did not decrease after the reduction of the key
The cost of the burden: mortgage overpayment almost did not decrease after the reduction of the key
The reduction in the key interest rate had virtually no effect on the mortgage overpayment. In February, banks lowered rates by only 0.3 percentage points, to 19.5%. On a loan on market terms, a Russian citizen will pay eight out of 10 interest payments, Izvestia calculated. The situation is better for a family mortgage, but not much: a person transfers half of all payments only to interest. The average period for which citizens take out a housing loan for new buildings has already exceeded 27 years — during this time, even a preferential rate will create a huge overpayment. Eventually, the buyer will be able to get one apartment for the price of two. At the same time, the authorities are discussing the possibility of tightening conditions for the family program — they are going to raise the rate to 10-12%. Market conditions may turn out to be similar as early as 2028.
What is the level of overpayment on the family mortgage
A family mortgage with a 6% interest rate and an average term of 27.4 years (328 months, according to Frank RG) allows borrowers to make moderate monthly contributions, but the overpayment on the loan still turns out to be significant — the amount of payments will double the loan itself.
For example: the average cost per square meter in new buildings is now about 208 thousand rubles, a typical "eurodvushka" with an area of 40 square meters. m will cost about 8.3 million rubles in Russia. The average down payment on a family mortgage is 30%, which means the borrower needs to apply for a loan of 5.8 million rubles. For 27.4 years, the total amount of payments will be 11.8 million, and the overpayment will be about 6 million. Simply put, a person will spend half of all the money only on interest and get one apartment for the price of almost two.
The situation with market mortgages is even worse. The price per square meter on the secondary market is less than 130 thousand. However, the average rate is 19.8%, and the term is about 26 years. For a similar Eurodvushka, the cost will be 5.2 million rubles. After deducting the initial payment of 30%, the loan will have to take about 3.7 million rubles. Over the entire repayment period, about 19 million will be reached, and the overpayment will exceed the loan amount four times.
In February, the level of overpayment on market mortgages remained virtually unchanged, despite a decrease in the key rate to 15.5%. At the beginning of the month, average housing loan rates in the top 5 banks reached 19.8%, but after the Central Bank's decision to lower the rate by 0.5 percentage points, only one of the largest market players revised the interest rate. As a result, the average rate decreased slightly to 19.5%.
But a market mortgage can be refinanced with a reduction in the key rate: the borrower will be able to apply for a loan at a lower rate and reduce the monthly payment, which means the total overpayment. For example, the Central Bank predicts that the key rate will return to a neutral level of 7.5–8.5% in 2028. In this case, the market mortgage rate may be in the range of 10-12%.
It is to this level that the authorities want to tighten the conditions for a family mortgage. The government is discussing the possibility of linking the interest on the preferential program to the number of children in the family. For parents with one child — 10%, with two — 6%, with three or more — 4%.
The problem is that most of the potential borrowers under the program will get to a higher rate. With a loan at 10% for 27.4 years, the overpayment will reach 190% of the loan amount. For example, a mortgage of 5.8 million rubles will lead to an overpayment of 11 million, that is, more than 65% of all payments will go to the bank for interest only.
Under the current conditions, many borrowers may take a wait—and-see attitude - to wait for a decrease in market rates, accumulate a larger down payment and apply for a loan for ready-made housing on almost the same terms that the updated family mortgage will offer. For a significant part of buyers, the secondary market may eventually turn out to be more profitable than new buildings. According to Urban Grade data, 93% of new settlers remain dissatisfied with the quality of housing in the primary market: most often they complain about defective windows, ventilation problems and low noise insulation.
Developers also often delay the commissioning of facilities: top developers rent every eighth meter of housing late. The market leader, Aeroplane, has a share of meters delivered in violation of deadlines that exceeds 25%.
Demand in the primary market is largely supported by government programs during a period of high market rates, said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company. If you don't start betting on quality, and the cost of a mortgage on ready-made housing is comparable to government programs, demand can easily flow to the secondary market.
Nevertheless, the authorities are discussing the possibility of automatically reducing the family mortgage rate at the birth of children. For example, if a family applies for a loan at 10% with one child, after the appearance of the second, with the approval of the measure, the rate may decrease to 6%. This will reduce the monthly payment and reduce the overpayment by almost one and a half times. In the meantime, there are no guarantees — the new terms of the family mortgage are under discussion.
How affordable is a mortgage in the Russian Federation
Now more and more borrowers are applying for a mortgage for a maximum period of 30 years, Gazprombank told Izvestia.
The average loan term has been growing almost continuously in recent years — at the beginning of 2020, it did not exceed 18 years, Ekaterina Shchurikhina, Director of Credit Institution Ratings at Expert RA agency, recalled. This trend is associated with the high cost of real estate: in order for the payment not to exceed the income, banks extend the loan term.
This is also necessary to meet the Central Bank's debt burden requirements. It is difficult to get a mortgage now if it is planned to allocate more than half of the income for payments on it — the share of refusals for such applications exceeds 50%.
In fact, the market is adapting to a decrease in housing affordability: lengthening the period allows us to formally maintain demand, but leads to an increase in total overpayments. This is a sign that the mortgage industry is overloaded.
People pay less every month, stretching their obligations over time, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets. At the same time, the imbalance is obvious: prices for new buildings are growing faster than for ready-made housing, and household incomes are not keeping up with this.
In recent years, the most noticeable price increase has occurred in the primary market: according to the Central Bank, in 2025 alone, the cost of housing in new buildings increased by almost 20%, said Vladimir Chernov. Preferential mortgage programs have become a key factor, which have spurred demand for primary housing. This allowed developers to keep and raise prices even against the background of slow growth in real incomes of the population. There are significantly fewer such support mechanisms in the secondary market, so the cost of housing there depends more on the level of rates and the solvency of buyers.
Against the background of expensive market mortgages, a preferential program for families with children remains the only affordable way for many to buy a home. The planned increase in rates for borrowers with one child to 10% will significantly affect the availability of loans, Expert RA noted. However, even so, the program will remain more profitable than market offers for at least the next one to one and a half years and will be in demand.
In the short term, preferential programs support sales and the construction industry, but the side effect of this is rising prices and increasing household debt burden for 25-30 years, concluded Vladimir Chernov.
In the long term, it is more profitable for the market to stabilize demand and reduce inflation. Then mortgages will become more affordable not through subsidies, but by reducing the cost of borrowed funds, which will reduce overpayments, the average loan term and make the market more stable without constant budget support.
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