At a low start: the mortgage lending market has revived in Russia
Since mid-2025, the Bank of Russia has switched to a key rate reduction cycle. This trend has continued this year. Banks responded to the regulator's policy by lowering loan rates, which led to a threefold increase in mortgage originations in January 2026. Whether it is possible to count on a further reduction in mortgage rates is discussed in the Izvestia article.
A steady trend
Over the past year (from February 2025 to February 2026), the key interest rate in Russia has changed significantly, decreasing from 21 to 15.5%. Following it, interest rates on loans, including mortgages, dropped from 30% to 20%.
According to estimates by analysts at the Presidential Academy, average market mortgage rates decreased by 0.75% in February. This trend has led to an increase in the issuance of such loans — in January, banks issued about 400 billion rubles in monetary terms, which corresponds to more than 82 thousand transactions.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia attribute the excitement in the mortgage market at the beginning of the year to the desire to take out a loan under the old conditions, because since February 1, 2026, innovations have appeared in the country. In particular, the "one mortgage per family" rule was introduced for family mortgages, and refinancing began to apply only to the market part of the loan (over the limit), recalls Yulia Makarenko, director of the Banking Development Institute.
— The increase in the number of issued market mortgage loans may be related to the gradual release of accumulated demand (this factor will be the driver of the market for a long time with the softening of the monetary exchange rate), with the desire to fix rising real estate prices, as well as with falling deposit yields and the desire to invest in more profitable instruments, including real estate, — says Her.
Long acceleration
The experts surveyed unanimously agree that mortgage rates will continue to gradually adjust downward as the key rate is further phased out. However, according to Alexey Voylukov, MBA Professor of Business Practice in digital Finance, mortgage rates decrease with a significant delay and in a smaller volume.
"From the end of September last year to the beginning of February this year, the average market rates did not actually change, despite the fact that the key rate during this time decreased from about 17 to 15.5%, that is, by 1.5%," he calculated.
The expert sees government-supported programs (at an average of 6% per annum) as the main driver of the market, rather than a market mortgage. However, the volume of such loans is decreasing as the criteria are clarified and the parameters are tightened.
— In 2025, banks issued mortgage loans of about 4.1 trillion rubles, which is less than a year earlier. There was a similar volume of disbursements in 2020," Voilukov points out.
At the same time, according to the interlocutor of Izvestia, the gradual decrease in market rates partially compensates for the decrease in this indicator in the segment of preferential mortgages.
What will happen next
Experts describe the current rate level on market mortgages, which averages about 20.5% per annum, as extremely high.
— Even if rates drop to 15-17% by the end of the year, this is unlikely to restore demand to previous levels. Under such conditions, mortgages are more often used as a short—term instrument with rapid repayment, rather than as a long-term loan for 20 years or more," says Alexey Voylukov.
Following the excitement, credit activity will slow down, Evgeny Goryunov, head of the Monetary Policy Laboratory at the Gaidar Institute, expects. Loan rates are adjusted after each meeting of the Central Bank. But, despite the drop in the key, they will still remain high, the expert believes.
In itself, he attributes the easing of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia to the cooling of the economy.
— In the absence of surprises, inflation will slow down gradually. According to our calculations, the economy will grow by no more than 0.5–0.7% in 2026," the Izvestia interlocutor explains.
In these conditions, the lending sector as a whole will grow, experts admit. According to Alexey Voylukov, corporate lending will show positive dynamics after the lull. At the same time, the growth in retail is now due to the "boom" in car loans: Russians massively purchased cars before the increase in recycling. In 2026, this trend began to decline.
— Strict regulatory requirements remain in place for consumer lending. Most likely, this segment, which has been declining for more than a year, will continue to stagnate," the specialist admits.
What happens to deposits
In nominal terms, the amount of household funds on deposits is still growing. However, in January, the total amount of money in deposits decreased by 0.9 trillion rubles (by 1.4%). Yulia Makarenko explains this phenomenon with a high base.
— In December, after receiving 13 salaries and annual bonuses, part of the payments settled on deposits. Their volume increased by 5.6%, or 3.6 trillion rubles. At the same time, the January drawdown is associated with spending during long holidays," the financier claims.
A significant part of the growth in the volume of Russians' funds on deposits is accounted for by the capitalization of interest at extremely high rates last year, says Alexey Voylukov.
— The amount of interest paid for the year is comparable or even exceeds the net inflow of new funds. And in real terms, the amount of funds on deposits may stagnate or even decrease, as part of the population has begun to spend the interest income received, he suggests.
According to the analyst, despite the decrease in deposit rates, there are few alternatives for a massive redistribution of funds. The expert expects that in conditions of limited lending against the background of high inflation, the needs of the population will grow.
— This means that some citizens will switch from the savings model to the consumer model through the use of accrued interest and previously accumulated funds. Thus, in absolute terms, the volume of deposits may grow, but in real terms, taking into account inflation and lower interest rates, stagnation or even a decrease in interest in this instrument is more likely.
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