The United States is looking for excuses to strike Iran. What you need to know
The United States continues to simultaneously negotiate with Iran on its nuclear program and increase its military presence in the Middle East. Given that diplomacy has not yet been able to resolve too deep contradictions between countries, this greatly increases the likelihood of an armed conflict between them. In the coming days, the ultimatum that US President Donald Trump issued to Tehran will expire, which may be followed by strikes on nuclear and military infrastructure. What excuses the White House uses and what its ultimate goal in Iran is is described in the Izvestia article.
What is the probability of an attack on Iran
• Since the beginning of the year, a possible American strike on Iran has remained one of the main topics on the global agenda. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly voiced threats against Tehran and made demands regarding the nuclear program, the production of long-range missiles and the financing of proxies. In addition to words, Washington was also engaged in business. The United States has deployed its most extensive military force to the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. It includes two aircraft carriers, fighter jets and tanker planes.
• Diplomatic efforts undertaken by both countries have failed. Representatives of the United States and Iran held indirect talks first on February 6 in Muscat, then met in Geneva on the 17th, and the third round took place on February 26 in the same Swiss city. The first two meetings did not contribute to de-escalation, despite some optimistic statements by the participants following their results. Judging by the rumors from sources in the Middle Eastern media, the third round was also not particularly successful. Tehran has put forward a proposal, agreeing to some concessions such as a temporary freeze on uranium enrichment programs, but this is unlikely to suit Washington.
Moreover, on February 17, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that the United States would never overthrow the Islamic Republic and threatened to sink American aircraft carriers. Thus, he rejected Trump's demand to completely shut down Iran's nuclear program. In response, the head of the White House said he was giving Tehran "10 to 15 days" to conclude a nuclear deal, threatening otherwise with "very bad things." The deadline for this ultimatum is due to expire in early March.
What the US wants from Iran
• Trump does not hide the fact that the main claim against Iran is the regime in force in the country, established after the 1979 revolution. The events after which secular and monarchical Persia was transformed into an Islamic Republic deprived the United States of a major ally and economic partner in the Middle East, which was a counterweight to the Arab monarchies and helped to preserve Israel on the political map.
• The current Iranian leadership has a radically different attitude towards Israel, while Trump remains committed to the unconditional support of Tel Aviv, not least due to friendly relations with ideologically close Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Support for Israel during Trump's second term has reached the point of directly siding with him in the 12-day June war — the United States participated in the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, despite assurances from the White House that under Trump the United States would abandon military intervention in any conflicts.
• With the start of anti-government protests in Iran, Trump reiterated that he is ready to seek a change of leadership in the republic. At the same time, he showed in practice how this could happen by ordering the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and taking him to New York for subsequent trial.
• In the case of Iran, it is almost impossible to repeat such an operation. First, Iran is much further away from the United States than Venezuela, which makes it difficult to deliver and deploy the necessary forces. Secondly, we should expect much fiercer resistance from Tehran than from Caracas. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which protects the Iranian leadership, is one of the most combat-ready formations in the world, with its own armored units, aircraft and navy. In addition, the IRGC is extremely ideologized and more motivated to fully fulfill the tasks of ensuring the security of the political elite.
• The United States will not achieve its ultimate goal with air strikes alone. It is impossible to do without a ground landing to change the regime, but the current composition of the American group in the Middle East shows that such an option is not even envisaged. However, in Washington's view, he has the opportunity to weaken the government, which the protesting forces will try to intercept in the future. And for this, conducting an air operation in Iran may be enough.
What hinders the USA
The reason for the strikes may be Iran's refusal to comply with the demands that were raised by the American delegation during the recent negotiations. At the same time, the claims are chosen in such a way that they cause an ambiguous attitude a priori and require careful study, which cannot be achieved within the tight deadlines set by Trump.
Thus, the demand to completely stop the nuclear program is strongly opposed by Iran. The opportunity to develop nuclear energy and enrich uranium independently has long been of political importance to Tehran rather than economic importance. The existence of a nuclear program demonstrates that the country is developing its scientific potential and benefiting from it, that it is in an exclusive club of states that have managed to tame the energy of the atom. Too much effort and money has been invested in the development of the program to be abandoned immediately, and therefore Iran continues to hold on to it.
In this regard, the United States threatens to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities themselves and stop further development of the program. However, this is a rather utopian step. Some strategic facilities are located underground and cannot be destroyed by conventional missiles. The United States tried to hit them with bunker buster bombs last June, but there is still no independent data on the effectiveness of those strikes. Moreover, Iran's accumulated experience will be enough to restore the necessary facilities sooner or later and provide them with more reliable protection. The scientific base necessary for uranium enrichment also continues to exist and cannot be destroyed unless a massive manhunt is launched against Iranian scientists.
• The United States also demands that Iran stop developing intercontinental ballistic missiles and financing friendly groups in the Middle East, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, the Palestinian Hamas and Shiite militants in Iraq. Tehran refuses to make any concessions on these issues, considering missiles and proxies as its main regional defense against Israel. Without these two factors, Iran will lose influence in the Middle East, and therefore it does not intend to lose them under pressure from the United States.
• Moreover, in these two directions, the United States is unlikely to be able to carry out its threats to the end. Attacks on the missile infrastructure and bases of Iran-friendly groups will require a prolonged military campaign, which the US military is hardly capable of. They will be limited not only politically, due to low support for the idea of participating in a long-term foreign conflict, but also practically. The US army does not have sufficient stocks of weapons necessary for an offensive campaign and protection against Iranian counterattacks. In Washington's view, you can't spend too many weapons to be defenseless against the threat from China — any planned operation must take this factor into account.
• Israel's involvement in a military conflict with Iran could make the U.S. task easier. It would be optimal for Washington if Tel Aviv struck first and then asked a key ally to join in. This would provide Trump with a reliable justification for launching his own strikes and support for public opinion inside the country, at least for a certain time. At the same time, Iran's response would be directed primarily at Israel, as it was during the 12-day war. Such a scenario would be the best justification for the United States to make a military threat come true and strike at the stability of Iran's ruling regime.
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