Cadres don't decide: demand for high-tech specialists has dropped

The number of unfilled vacancies for specialists in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM personnel) has decreased by more than a third over the year. This follows from the personnel demand index of the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia (AIRR). Experts called the decline in interest in such personnel the most significant over the past few years. Companies are now increasingly trying to adapt existing employees to their needs rather than looking for new ones, they note. Where in Russia there is still a shortage of high—tech personnel, and where they are not needed at all, is in the Izvestia material.

How much interest in high-tech personnel has decreased

The level of demand for high-tech personnel in the Russian labor market collapsed by the end of 2025: the number of unfilled vacancies in December decreased to an average of 34.5% in the country compared to the end of 2024. Moreover, in the fourth quarter of last year, the drop in interest turned out to be particularly "deep" than before. This follows from the data of the Regional Index of demand for personnel for the innovative economy, which is prepared by AIRR experts.

And there are no signs of a recovery in the high-tech personnel market yet, said Alexander Smekalin, director of the association.

— The main reason is the transition of companies to conservative planning. In addition to high interest rates, we see an increase in non—payments between counterparties," he told Izvestia. — Companies cannot afford expensive specialists with large salaries. Ambitious projects are put on pause. At the same time, the expansion decisions are being reviewed.

As a result, the increased demand for specialists is being replaced by internal personnel optimization and layoffs. Moreover, as Alexander Smekalin notes, the process began with large companies, including enterprises with state participation.

"Unproductive jobs are being cut, and HR budgets are being reallocated to retain valuable employees," he said.

The index was created based on the data hh.ru , where out of 800,000 vacancies posted at the end of the year, 8.6% (69,000) are offers for STEM personnel. As Alexander Smekalin explained, in previous years December was a month of "fading", followed by spring growth: companies carried out optimization, and next year, along with plans, they opened new vacancies.

— But there was no such thing in 2025. Many organizations dropped out of the salary race and poached employees from each other, curtailed development programs, and with them the search for new specialists. In such conditions, it is more profitable for employers to rely on existing employees and focus on retaining them, even if this reduces ambitions," the expert said.

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The demand for high—tech specialists fell the most significantly in the Ural and Southern Federal Districts — by 41.8% in each of them, as well as in the Siberian Federal District - by 38.8%. Least of all — in the Far Eastern Federal District, where the number of vacancies decreased by 22.9%.

— Here we are not talking about saturation of the market, because there are no more staff, — said Alexander Smekalin. — According to demographic indicators, there is a certain influx of young employees into the labor market. But there is still an acute shortage of specialists, especially qualified ones.

Therefore, the expert called the situation when companies stop believing that employees will be found and adapt plans and strategies to real opportunities a loss of illusions.

According to the index, interest in STEM personnel without experience has also decreased. In December 2025, there were 11.7% of such vacancies, and the year before that — 13.9%.

"There is a clear negative correlation with the salary level," AIRR concludes. — The higher they are, the lower the willingness of companies to invest in the development of employees without experience. In this regard, despite the record low unemployment rate, it is becoming increasingly difficult for many young professionals with high ambitions to find work."

Of the specialties, the demand for IT specialists has decreased the most. During the year, the number of vacancies decreased by 44%, while in the last quarter — by 14.6%.

Where are STEM students needed?

The greatest demand for high-tech personnel remains in regions with a high level and potential for innovative development. The largest cities are Moscow, the Moscow Region, St. Petersburg, the Sverdlovsk Region, Tatarstan, and the Krasnodar Territory. Among the less populated regions, Novosibirsk, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Omsk, Irkutsk and Voronezh regions, as well as Perm Krai, demonstrate interest in STEM personnel. There are 29 regions with high demand for such specialists. The least populated of them are the Amur, Sakhalin and Magadan Regions, as well as the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

The lowest demand for such specialists was recorded in the Stavropol Territory, Dagestan, Arkhangelsk and Astrakhan regions, Chechnya, Khakassia, Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tuva, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Ingushetia, the Eastern Administrative District and the Northern Administrative District.

— We see a natural connection between the demand for STEM personnel and the level of business development in the regions: it does not exist with a low proportion of employment in high-tech areas, low patent and innovation activity. In other words, if there are no companies, there is no demand for specialists," said the director of AIRR. — On the other hand, intelligent people cannot find work and often leave the region. The high polarization of modern industries is one of the factors of internal migration of people to points of attraction.

At the same time, according to him, there are examples of regions that have found their specific niche and thus create a local demand for highly qualified specialists.

— We can single out the Vladimir region with its focus on production technologies and the development of industrial parks. As well as Yakutia, which is building a niche in the IT and creative industries, relying on regional support and new forms of employment," said Alexander Smekalin.

Why is demand decreasing

Starting in 2020, the demand for high-tech personnel has been constantly increasing, peaking in 2022-2024, Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets, Associate Professor of the Department of Human Resource Management at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, reminded Izvestia.

— The market is not so much saturated as it has adapted. Cost savings also affect demand in these areas, but to a lesser extent. So far, not all of these areas are considered prestigious among young professionals, few are willing to devote themselves to science and engineering, and vacancies are filled mainly by older specialists," she said.

Olga Nazaikinskaya, Director of the Center for Educational Transformation at the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo, believes that there are positive conclusions in the AIRR index.

— Vacancies have been actively filling up from year to year. This is not the first time that the demand for specialists in natural sciences and engineering disciplines has been observed and will continue to grow," she said. — Universities and vocational education institutions have begun to actively rebuild their programs, and the government is adding budget places in these areas. Given the long educational cycles, these graduates have now begun to actively enter the market and fill vacancies. At the same time, the business is working to retain specialists.

Petr Ototsky, a leading researcher at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA), believes that changes in the demand for personnel are common to many professions.

— The number of vacancies was steadily decreasing, and the number of resumes was consistently growing. It's not just related to IT specifics or some kind of technological shift. The changes in the Russian labor market in 2025-2026 are caused by a combination of macroeconomic factors, structural shifts and reflect the completion of the overheating of the economy and peak demand for personnel, the expert believes.

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Felix Gadzaov, director of the Digital School of Public Administration at the Higher School of Economics, RANEPA, is confident that this situation is not a result of market saturation, but a cooling of public vacancy activity and the transition of employers to more selective hiring.

— The structural deficit persists. For example, in the statistical collection "Digital Economy — 2026", the lack of qualified personnel is named as the main barrier to the introduction of artificial intelligence. This is confirmed by applied research: 44% of companies report a shortage of AI specialists," he said. — Data processing centers are becoming a nationally important infrastructure, which may indirectly explain the redistribution of personnel demand from applied development to construction, energy and operation of digital infrastructure.

Ekaterina Kashtanova, Associate Professor of the Department of Personnel Management at the State University of Management, called the data on a decrease in demand for STEM personnel paradoxical against the background of government support for high technologies and the general course towards digitalization.

— This does not mean that the market has become saturated or that technology has become less important. We are talking about a qualitative transformation of demand, not its complete disappearance. Rather, the demand is decreasing not for technology per se, but for narrow-profile performers who are unable to see the picture beyond their specialization. Companies are still in dire need of technological competencies, but now they are looking for them in a different format," the expert believes.

It was AI that Ekaterina Kashtanova called a key factor in cost savings and optimization: in the current environment, businesses are striving to reduce costs, including through automation and digitalization. In addition, she noted the trend towards "multifunctional" and "T-shaped" competencies.

— The market is no longer just looking for a coder or analyst. Universal experts are becoming in demand — specialists who are deeply versed in their field (vertical "T"), but at the same time have a broad outlook and related skills (horizontal "T"), the expert pointed out.

The need for specialists who can not only implement technologies, but also justify their business value, is only growing, she noted.

Therefore, the market is not saturated with technology, it is evolving. According to Ekaterina Kashtanova, the number of places for highly specialized performers is indeed decreasing, but the need for technological integrators is growing — people who are able to apply technology to solve specific business problems.