The elimination game: who will survive in the labor market in 2026
In 2026, the Russian labor market is entering a phase of fierce competition for vacancies. According to experts, the number of offers from companies is decreasing, and the flow of resumes is growing. Businesses are increasingly abandoning mass hiring, automating processes, and selecting specialists based on specific results rather than diplomas. Izvestia tells us in which areas it will be most difficult for applicants, where the personnel shortage will remain, and which skills will be crucial.
Why is the market shifting in favor of companies
Olga Rzhevskaya, HR Director at the Sidorin Lab reputation company, told Izvestia that one of the key indicators of the situation, the hh.index (HeadHunter index - an indicator of the level of competition in the labor market, reflecting the ratio of the number of active resumes to the number of open vacancies on the platform), reached 8.6 points in December 2025, which means a transition to the employer's market. For comparison, at the end of 2023, the indicator was 3.5. According to her, the number of vacancies decreased by 28% over the year, while the number of active resumes increased by 37%.
— Companies are moving from mass hiring to point-to-point recruitment: 63% of employers cite increasing labor productivity as their top priority. Instead of expanding the staff, the business optimizes processes and closes inefficient areas," the expert explained.
Automation creates additional pressure, she noted.
— Already 29% of employees fear that they will be replaced by AI in the next two years, which is three times more than a year ago. As a result, employers have gained a stronger negotiating position, and applicants have to prove their worth with specific skills and results," Rzhevskaya added.
Where will the competition be the highest
The most stressful situation is in professions with universal functions that can be automated.
— There are an average of 27.2 resumes per vacancy in marketing, advertising and PR. In IT, the indicator reaches 20.7, and in finance and accounting — 12.9," the expert said.
High competition persists in the media industry.
— The number of projects is decreasing, but interest in the industry remains high. This leads to a tough selection for creative, content, and managerial roles — copywriters, editors, and designers, some of whose tasks are already being replaced by AI," Rzhevskaya explained.
A similar situation is observed among administrative staff, recruiters, product managers, and strategic consultants.
— For office employees, the hh.index is 12.7. The number of qualified candidates here consistently exceeds the number of available positions, including at the expense of specialists from closed or frozen projects, — she noted.
Where the shortage of personnel will remain
At the same time, a number of industries will continue to experience an acute shortage of specialists. According to Olga Rzhevskaya, we are talking primarily about technical professions.
"In engineering, automation and the industrial sector, 93% of employers face a shortage of skills, rather than a formal number of people," the expert said.
Demand also remains high in medicine.
— Among doctors, the hh.index stands at 2.3, which indicates a shortage of staff, — she specified.
The expert singled out specialists in artificial intelligence, information security and cyber defense.
"There are still significantly fewer of these professionals than there are business needs," she stressed.
How AI is Changing Hiring
The expert noted that artificial intelligence is already actively used in HR processes.
— AI is used for the initial screening of resumes, preparation of standard documents and responses to candidates. This creates pressure on administrative and initial analytical positions," said Rzhevskaya.
According to her, entry-level accountants, legal assistants and junior analysts are at risk.
"These are roles where work largely consists of data processing and repetitive operations," she explained.
At the same time, AI, the expert emphasized, does not completely replace humans.
— For employers, it is a tool to increase efficiency. 60% of companies say that AI specialists cope with routine faster and free up time for tasks with more added value," the expert said.
Professions where technology becomes a part of daily work benefit.
"There is a growing demand for product managers, data analysts, DevOps specialists, and AI engineers," Rzhevskaya added.
What skills will help you stay in demand
According to the expert, in 2026, employers are increasingly focusing on real results rather than formal education.
—Skill selection increases the chances of finding a candidate in IT by 4.4 times, and in marketing by 3.6 times," she noted.
Flexibility of thinking and communication are becoming key among soft skills.
— 75% of employers call adaptability critically important, and 68% — the ability to interact with the team, — said Rzhevskaya.
Among professional competencies, AI, data analytics and process automation are priorities.
— Portfolios and practical cases are more important than diplomas today. The work strategy is a focus on measurable results, continuous professional development and demonstration of technology skills," she stressed.
How to choose between candidates
Hiring decisions, according to the expert, are increasingly being made in two stages.
— At the first level, 65% of employers cut off resumes without relevant experience and skills, — said Rzhevskaya.
But the final choice depends on other factors.
— In 80% of cases, personal qualities become crucial: cultural conformity, sociability and development potential, — she noted.
Moreover, an impressive number of years in the profession no longer guarantees success.
— The quality of the implemented cases and the ability to quickly get involved in tasks are more important. 60% of employers say that employees with AI skills are more efficient than others, so technology ownership becomes a competitive advantage," the expert added.
According to experts, 2026 will consolidate the transition to the employer's market: there will be fewer vacancies, stricter requirements, and automation will accelerate the redistribution of roles in companies. Applicants will have to compete not only with each other, but also with algorithms, proving the practical value of their skills.
The most sought-after candidates will be those who combine professional expertise, the ability to work with AI, developed communication skills and a willingness to constantly learn, turning changes in the labor market into an opportunity for career growth.
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