War is near: terrorists have promised Syria a new coup d'etat
The Islamic State group (IS, an organization recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation), which had been cooperating with representatives of the transitional Syrian government for some time, declared war on them. In particular, the militants promised the current leader Ahmed al-Sharaa the fate of his predecessor Bashar al-Assad. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
A direct threat
In their first audio message in two years, the militants of the Islamic State called on their supporters to fight the new government and the Syrian national army. According to the group's spokesman, Abu Khuzayf al-Ansari, this should be their priority.
The new administration in Syria was formed following the results of the first parliamentary elections held 10 months after the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. They were indirect — members of the electoral college voted. In addition, "for security reasons," as stated in Damascus, elections were not held in 3 of the 14 provinces of the country.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, became the president of Syria for the transitional period. In 2003, he was a member of the extremist group Al-Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) in Iraq, but three years later he was arrested by the American military. He spent another five years in Iraqi prisons.
After his release in 2011, Ahmed al-Sharaa became the head of the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, Jabhat al—Nusra (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) to participate in the Syrian civil war and fight the government of Bashar al-Assad.
The name of the group, which for some time collaborated with the IG, translates as "Victory Front." In 2017, Jabhat al-Nusra was reformed into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), whose main goal was to overthrow Bashar al-Assad.
The alignment of forces
The appeal from the militants of the "Islamic State" to supporters was the first after the change of power in Syria. The extremists have already begun to put their threats into practice. In the east and north of the country, in particular, the checkpoints of the Syrian military were attacked, there are dead. The ranks of the IS militants have been filled with prisoners who have escaped from Syrian prisons and camps. According to American media reports, there are currently between 15,000 and 20,000 people at large who may be associated with extremist groups, including the Islamic State.
Militant activity has increased amid the ongoing evacuation of the American contingent, which has been in Syria for about 10 years as part of the international anti-terrorist coalition. The Pentagon is deploying US soldiers and equipment to neighboring Iraq, where about a thousand American troops are stationed in the north of the country. The full withdrawal should be completed within 20-30 days.
The agreement of the Kurdish formations to integrate into the state structures of Syria has also changed the balance of power in the region. For almost 10 years, the Kurds have been the main American ally in the fight against ISIS.
Washington now expects that the functions of the main fighter against the terrorist threat will be transferred to the army of the new Syrian government.
In his recent report on the threat posed by the Islamic State, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pointed to continued tensions in Syria. According to the UN, terrorist sleeper cells are still active. The main targets of their attacks are the military and police, especially in the northern and northeastern provinces.
The power vacuum
The new government in Damascus is unstable, transitional and has little control, Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post—Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— Unfortunately, for Syria, this will be a transition towards a terrorist flower garden with many different groups that will continue to divide the government. The problem is that the Turks were initially absolutely confident that they were in control, but as a result, the situation, which has been getting out of control for quite some time, still remains without due attention from external actors," the political scientist explained.
According to the expert, regional players are not focused on this problem. According to the Arabist, only Israel is trying to do something from neighboring countries.
As an example, Krylov cited the events of the end of 2024, when West Jerusalem actively bombed the supply bases of the Syrian army so that weapons would not go to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other terrorist organizations. The expert believes that it was only a matter of time before ISIS declared war on the new Syrian government.
— It could have been this terrorist group, or some other one. In general, there are a lot of dissenting groups there, now they have joined forces with the unfinished IG. Russia does not control what is happening there, the Americans are not interested, the Turks believe that they have everything under control, and Israel is far enough away," the political scientist said.
In his opinion, the result was a power vacuum that the extremists took advantage of. In such circumstances, another coup is indeed possible.
— Damascus does not have enough forces to stop the Islamic State 2.0 (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). At the same time, the fall of the regime in the country is not an important issue in the current geopolitical realities. The issue of ethno—confessional leadership is another matter," the expert said.
Krylov admitted the possibility of dividing the Syrian oil fields, which are the most valuable thing in the country.
"In general, within the framework of the system of lack of morality in international relations, one cannot hope that something will change for the better for the civilian population and at least someone will speak up for them," the expert added.
The expert does not rule out that the current Syrian leader may turn to various forces, including Russia, the United States and Turkey, with a request to help him in the fight against terrorism in the face of ISIS.
"I can't be responsible for Russia, but I think that Turkey is for sure, and the United States is likely to take a divide—and—rule position: let two snakes bite each other, and then we'll see if we can finish off the survivor or use it to our advantage," Krylov summed up.
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