The Syrian knot: why al-Sharaa came to Putin

Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The program of the visit includes a working breakfast and a separate conversation between the leaders. It was officially announced that the parties will discuss the prospects for the development of bilateral relations, as well as the current situation in the Middle East. What topics can be discussed behind closed doors can be found in the Izvestia article.

A new relationship

The Syrian leader's plane landed at Vnukovo Airport. Ahmed al-Sharaa was met at the ramp by, among others, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin. According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, during the talks the leaders of the two countries will discuss issues related to the presence of the Russian military in Syria.

"I have no doubt that all topics related to the presence of our military in Syria will be discussed at the talks today," the Kremlin spokesman said.

The visit of the interim President of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, takes place against the backdrop of an escalating crisis between Damascus and the Kurdish armed groups. In January, the Syrian army continued its operation in the northeast of the country. During the fighting, government forces occupied the Omar oil field and the Konoko gas field. At the same time, the fighting continues, even despite the ceasefire announced on January 20.

The actions of the Syrian army against the Kurds have also affected Moscow's interests in the region. In January, there were reports of the withdrawal of the Russian military from the airfield in Al-Qamishli, where they had been stationed since 2019. The number of troops at this facility was relatively small compared to the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. According to media reports, some of the personnel, as well as military equipment and heavy weapons are being relocated to the Khmeimim airbase.

Against this background, the question of the continued presence of the Russian military in Syria remains open, RIAC expert Anton Mardasov said in an interview with Izvestia. While Khmeimim retains the importance of a key logistics hub for the supply of the Afrika Korps, the logistics center in Tartus is not actually used in the same volume after the change of power in Syria.

As Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, notes in an interview with Izvestia, external legitimization is extremely important for al-Sharaa and the current Syrian authorities. In this context, any visit, especially to a country like Russia, is in itself a serious political advantage and indicates international recognition.

— At the same time, after the regime change in Syria, there are a number of unresolved issues in relations between Damascus and Moscow. These problems require discussion and solutions at the highest level. We are talking not only about military bases, but also about bilateral relations in general, including economic cooperation and regional settlement issues.

Ahmed al-Sharaa led the Arab Republic during the transition period after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. This is his second visit to Moscow. Last October, he met with Vladimir Putin and then announced his intention to restart relations between the "new Syria" and Russia.

Purpose of the visit

According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the future of the Russian bases in Khmeimim and Tartus will be central to the agenda of the negotiations. The discussion of tactical issues, such as leaving the facility in Qamishli or specific mechanisms for resolving relations with the Kurds, is unlikely to belong to the format of presidential negotiations, said RIAC expert Anton Mardasov.

— If the Kurdish settlement were a key topic, then Russian forces would most likely maintain a presence in the Al-Qamishli area to perform mediation and patrolling functions. In the current conditions, the main issue remains the operating conditions of the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, as well as possible options for reformatting their work," he notes.

According to him, we can also talk about the possible continuation of supplies of petroleum products and grain, which involve other external players, as well as the problems of restoring the combat capability of Syrian air defense systems and armored vehicles.

— The restoration of infrastructure facilities, including hydroelectric power plants, and the prospects for resuming oil production are of particular importance. In particular, Damascus had previously stated its interest in returning Tatneft to work in Syria, which was interrupted at the beginning of the civil war, the analyst points out.

As Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, notes in an interview with Izvestia, the situation in Syria remains extremely difficult. After the actual fall of Bashar al-Assad's power, Russia's capabilities have noticeably decreased. In these circumstances, Moscow acts more like a partner seeking to preserve at least some of the positions it still has.

— At the same time, the positions of not only Russia have weakened, — the expert points out. — The United States no longer has the same level of influence, the European Union has actually lost the opportunity to influence the Syrian settlement. Israel, which hoped to strengthen its position, in reality rather contributed to the strengthening of Turkey, but its success is more situational in nature. In general, the same chaos that existed before remains, and it is unlikely that it will be resolved in the foreseeable future.

The experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that the Middle East remains a hotbed of constant tension, and Moscow's role as one of the factors of deterrence and stabilization is still in demand.

"For Russia, the continuation of its base in Syria is not only a necessity for the transit of goods to Africa," explains Anton Mardasov. — This is an opportunity to keep abreast of the Middle East region, where the physical and military presence is perceived in a completely different way than just the diplomatic one.