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- No demand: the number of real estate transactions in new buildings decreased in 33 regions
No demand: the number of real estate transactions in new buildings decreased in 33 regions
The number of real estate transactions decreased in Russia's key housing markets, with a decline recorded in 33 regions. The largest decrease was noted in the Ivanovo Region (31%), Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (27.3%), St. Petersburg (24%), Sevastopol (23%). Experts cite the reasons for the high key interest rate, which made mortgages unaffordable, as well as a reduction in preferential programs. Construction companies also note a similar picture, believing that the market will be able to recover only with a more decisive policy of the Central Bank to lower the rate.
Why has the demand for real estate started to fall in Russia
The market of new buildings in 33 regions showed an annual decrease in transactions, according to a study by Aeroplane Plus based on Rosreestr data on registered contracts for participation in shared construction (DDU). The largest decrease was noted in the Ivanovo Region (31%), Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (27.3%), St. Petersburg (24%), Sevastopol (23%), Krasnodar Territory (20.5%), Tomsk Region (18.1%) and in seven other regions with indicators from 17.1% to 15.2%.
The Astrakhan Region (14.7%), the Ulyanovsk Region (13.3%), the Tambov Region (10.4%), Moscow (10%) and the Moscow Region (4.6%) were among the second ten in terms of reducing transactions.
The lowest drop was recorded in the Kaluga Region (1.4%) and Primorsky Krai (1.3%), as well as in a number of other regions with indicators ranging from 2.2% to 4.7%.
In Russia as a whole, by the end of 2025, the number of registered contracts for participation in shared construction decreased by 2.1% to 794.1 thousand, according to the study.
At the same time, demand for new buildings has increased in a number of regions. The Tula region has become the absolute leader: the number of registered DDoS has more than doubled, from 7.7 thousand in 2024 to 15.7 thousand in 2025. According to the study, this is the highest indicator among regions with a developed primary housing market. Other leaders in demand growth include the Kursk Region (+99.4%), the Trans—Baikal Territory (+48.9%), the Belgorod Region (+41%) and Mordovia (+35.7%).
The largest markets with the largest construction volumes are still the leaders in the number of transactions in absolute terms, but it is in these territories that the most noticeable decrease in demand was recorded in 2025 compared to last year, Aram Pepanyan, CEO of the Plus Group, which manages the Aeroplane Plus office network, explained to Izvestia.
— The market of new buildings in Russia has become less concentrated: the share of the five largest regions in terms of the number of sales of new buildings decreased from 45% in 2024 to 40% in 2025. At the same time, territories with an average volume of construction have demonstrated more stable dynamics and have become leaders in terms of sales growth," said the industry representative.
He explained the phenomenon of leadership in the Tula region by the steady level of employment and high salaries in the industrial sector. An additional role was played by the proximity to Moscow and more affordable housing prices compared to the capital — some of the buyers are specialists working remotely. Aram Pepanyan also drew attention to the fact that about 80% of transactions accounted for the family mortgage program.
According to him, the reasons for the decrease in the number of transactions in the regions with the largest real estate markets in 2025 were the high key interest rate, which made market mortgages practically inaccessible, and the reduction of preferential mortgage programs.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Construction with a request to comment on the situation on the real estate market.
When will the situation in the housing market change
The drop in demand is noted by representatives of other development companies.
— Demand has collapsed in many regions. In large regions, it is determined by the market, and it is there that the decrease in the ability of buyers is immediately reflected in the statistics. And the opportunity to purchase housing has once again plummeted. The new requirements for a family mortgage have led to a significant reduction in its issuance, by more than a third," Maxim Fedorchenko, president of the Association of Construction Organizations of the Novosibirsk Region, told Izvestia.
According to him, banks have tightened requirements for borrowers and documents, and are reintroducing mandatory fees, which limits access to mortgages for "non-proprietary" projects. Market mortgages are still unavailable: the rate of about 20% has become prohibitive, the industry representative stressed.
Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, agrees that the reason for the reduction in demand for new buildings is related to high mortgage rates.
— Despite several rounds of revision of the key rate, the average rate for the 20 largest banks outside the subsidy programs is 20.49%. Family mortgages stimulate demand only from buyers who fall under the program, while outside of it there are citizens who would like to purchase housing but cannot afford it at current rates," a business representative explained to Izvestia.
The Central Bank's signal to lower the key rate has not yet had a noticeable impact on the mortgage products of most credit institutions, Maxim Fedorchenko noted.
— The trend will continue in the long term if housing purchase tools are not created that are accessible to a wide audience. The transformation of apartments into an increasingly "piece-by-piece" product will increase the cost per square meter and reduce effective demand. There is only hope for a systematic and significant reduction in the rate, but even in this case, it will not be easy for the market to return to a balance between supply and demand and begin to develop," he believes.
Mortgage transactions in the primary market in different regions of Russia account for from 50% to 80% of all transactions, with about 70% of them being mortgages. Therefore, the tightening of the conditions for issuing a family mortgage instantly limits the possibilities of buyers. This is especially noticeable in large cities, where developers saw the potential for growth and actually overheated the market, explained Dmitry Khalin, CEO and Managing Partner of Intermark Urban Real Estate.
Currently, there is a fairly rapid decline in sales volumes, which were previously provided by preferential programs, with a decrease in demand reaching 20-30%. This can be considered as an effect of a high base, and such a sharp drop is not expected in the future, he believes.
— On the one hand, the market will enter the mode of more or less market financing of transactions, on the other hand, at the moment, due to the easing of monetary policy, market mortgage rates are going lower and lower - from 20%, so in the near future they will become quite adequate for buying housing both in new buildings and on the the secondary market," the expert believes.
According to Ruslan Syrtsov, it is logical to assume that the decline in demand primarily affects the most "overheated" local markets. Moscow, St. Petersburg and Krasnodar Krai are among the regions with a noticeable drop in the number of registered DDU, the Sverdlovsk Region, the Novosibirsk Region and the Tyumen Region can be added to them, the source said.
At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that there are regions where there is still an increase in the number of transactions. Speaking about the prospects for the development of the situation, he believes that, most likely, there will be a certain stabilization of the market with an adjusted level of demand.
— Developers are generally adapting to the new conditions, launching installment programs. At the same time, mortgage rates will eventually begin to decline following the key one. There are chances that the Central Bank will reduce the rate to about 12-13% per annum in the summer, and then with mortgages of about 15%, demand will begin to "revive," the business representative suggests.
Yaroslav Gutnov, the founder of SIS Development, drew attention to the fact that in most regions, including Moscow, in January 2026, the demand for primary housing increased significantly compared to January 2025. In his opinion, the market is currently recovering steadily.
— Easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy leads to increased demand, including within the framework of market mortgages. The rates still remain prohibitive, however, given the current rate of the Bank of Russia, in the future, customers will be able to count on profitable loan refinancing for a year and a half," the business representative believes.
He also noted that buyers continue to actively arrange installments in buildings under construction, which imply the registration of a market mortgage for the remainder after the house is put into operation.
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