Keep your nose on the meter: cheap housing in new buildings is running out in Moscow
The number of apartments in the budget of up to 20 million rubles in Moscow's primary market has decreased fivefold in a year, analysts told Izvestia. In total, there are about 2.5 thousand lots left at this price, most of which are studios and studio apartments. This situation has developed against the background of the leaching of the mass segment of housing from the market, as well as due to the rush to buy inexpensive properties before tightening the rules of family mortgages, experts say. The prospects for affordable housing in the capital are described in the Izvestia article.
Which apartments are still on the market
In "old" Moscow, there are just over 2.5 thousand apartments left on the primary real estate market for less than 20 million rubles, analysts at Core.XP told Izvestia. This is only 20% of the total supply and five times less than in January 2025.
— Now more than half of such apartments are one—room (67%), studios account for 33%, — the analysts noted. — The average price per square meter is 490.2 thousand rubles, which is 22% higher than a year earlier.
Most of the apartments in this price segment are located in new buildings in the Tsaritsyno and Golyanovo districts.
According to Daria Tsygankova, head of the VSN Group Analytics and consulting department, the number of apartments with a budget of up to 20 million rubles has decreased fourfold over the year.
— The main reasons are a significant increase in the average supply budget for the year and the washing out of cheaper lots, — the expert believes. — In the comfort and economy segments, the average offer price increased by 30% over the year.
Over the past year, the supply of apartments on the primary market in the mass segment within the borders of "old" Moscow has decreased by 50%, and one—room apartments and studios - by 70-80%, said Ivan Zolotarev, a real estate expert at the federal company "Floors" in the capital.
"At the same time, the most compact apartments have increased in price by 20-25% over the past year," he noted. — If a year ago, with a budget of 20 million rubles, the choice of studios and one-bedroom apartments within the borders of "old" Moscow was quite large, now it is extremely limited. These are mostly studios, you can find studio apartments and even small Eurodome formats. But these are either remnants of projects implemented before the ban on micro-apartments, or low-visibility options with worse view characteristics or suspended offers at a discount.
6.2 thousand such inexpensive apartments and 0.3 thousand apartments are being sold in New Moscow, Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of Metrium, told Izvestia.
"There has been a reduction in offers from developers worth up to 20 million rubles by almost three times," he said. — Indeed, most of the premises under consideration are studios and one—bedroom apartments. But there are also twos and even threes.
The average home purchase receipt, according to the M2 analytical center, in 2025 in Moscow amounted to 12.5 million rubles, an increase of 9%. The Krasnodar Territory is in second place with 7.2 million, and the Moscow Region is in third place with 6.8 million. The average check in St. Petersburg is about two times less than in the capital - 6 million rubles.
— If we talk about the annual dynamics of the average home purchase receipt, then there is an increase in this indicator in all market segments. At the same time, the most significant in the segment of "New buildings without a mortgage" is 37%, analysts said.
Why are affordable apartments disappearing
One of the reasons for the current market situation is the leaching of inexpensive lots in the early stages of construction, experts say. At the excavation stage, the price per square meter is the lowest, and within 20 million rubles you can buy apartments in both comfort and business class.
— Now in the Moscow market, the level of sales of projects at the time of commissioning is much higher than before, — said Evgeniya Vinichenko, Director of Pricing and Analytics at Pioneer. — If in 2021-2022 this figure was 70-72%, then by 2025 it has grown to 79%.
The average price per square meter in new buildings in Moscow has already exceeded 450 thousand rubles, and in locations closer to the center — 600 thousand rubles, which automatically displaces any apartments with a square footage of more than 45 square meters. m is beyond the budget of 20 million, said David Khudoyan, CEO of Optima Development.
— In addition, developers are consistently shifting their focus to more marginal market segments, where the project payback is higher and the risks are lower, — said the expert. — Finally, high mortgage rates and a reduction in preferential lending programs have further narrowed the circle of solvent buyers focused on this price range, which has increased pressure on supply.
Another reason for what is happening is that the ban on studios with an area of up to 28 square meters has begun to affect the market, Ivan Zolotarev added.
— Developers are forced to design apartments of a larger area, which, naturally, affects the final price of such housing in the mass segment, — he specified.
The situation is directly related to the transformation of concessional lending conditions, says Vladimir Kolesnikov, director of the residential real estate Sales unit at A101 Group of Companies.
"The high demand in December 2025 and January 2026 was triggered by upcoming changes in the family mortgage program," he said. — In their desire to get a loan under the old terms, the buyers were forced to make a quick decision. Sometimes this meant selecting properties that fit within the maximum credit limits and meet financial opportunities. This caused the washing out of the most liquid and affordable lots.
In addition, due to the moratorium introduced by the authorities of the capital in 2024, the number of apartments in the structure of the real estate market is decreasing, Ruslan Syrtsov added.
— And they are, as a rule, on average 15% cheaper than apartments of a similar format, — said the expert. — I think that against the background of a gradual reduction in the key rate and the activation of pent-up demand, prices for primary housing will continue to rise in 2026 with a serious outstrip of inflation.
In the coming years, the reduction in budget supply to 20 million rubles will continue, especially in "old" Moscow, says Dmitry Polskoy, head of digital sales development at Tashir Estate. According to him, the mass segment is not getting new starts inside the MKAD, and demand is shifting towards compact studio apartments and one—room lots in the early stages of construction and in projects outside the ring road.
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