Long-running reasons: rental prices have fallen in Russian megacities

At the beginning of 2026, there was a downward trend in the Russian long—term rental market: in major cities such as Moscow, Chelyabinsk, and Rostov‑on‑Don, Krasnodar and Perm — monthly rental prices dropped by 5-9%. This was reported to Izvestia by analysts and market players. The main reason is the easing of mortgage lending conditions after a reduction in the key interest rate. More and more tenants are deciding not to renew their lease agreements, but to purchase their own housing. The Izvestia article contains an analysis of the prospects of the long—term rental market.

Where the rental price has decreased

The cost of long-term apartment rentals has decreased in several major Russian cities at once, analysts told Izvestia. According to Avito Real Estate, prices fell most noticeably in Chelyabinsk — by 9%, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar and Moscow — by 8%, Perm — by 5%.

At the same time, in two years — from January 2023 to January 2025 - the average rental rates for one-room apartments and studios in Russia increased by 54.8% to 32.5 thousand rubles, Olga Pavlinova, director of the rental department of the federal company Etagi, recalled.

— The most significant growth during this period among the million-plus cities was recorded in Chelyabinsk, Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg and Moscow. It was 51-90%," she said.

According to the expert, the most significant decrease in average rental rates for one—room apartments and studios over the year was recorded in Omsk and Chelyabinsk - by 8.2–8.4%. Slightly less in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh and Nizhny Novgorod — by 5.6–7.2%.

— In Moscow, average rental rates increased over the same period, but only by 0.8%, while in St. Petersburg the decrease was 1%, - said Olga Pavlinova. — In Russia as a whole, the average rental rates for one-room apartments and studios decreased by 2.8% over the year, to 31.6 thousand rubles.

The average cost of long-term rental housing in Russia in January 2026 was 34.9 thousand rubles, which is 1% less than in the same month last year, Avito Real Estate added. It is cheaper to rent an apartment in Voronezh, Chelyabinsk, Krasnodar, Volgograd and Omsk.

— Against the background of improving mortgage market conditions in the capital, demand is gradually shifting from long—term rentals to sales, - said Konstantin Kamenev, head of the long-term rental category of the service. — For example, Muscovites are increasingly looking for opportunities to improve their living conditions through the purchase of real estate on the primary and secondary markets, rather than through long-term rentals.

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They are considered one-room apartments and studios worth up to 20 million rubles.

He clarified that a similar trend is observed across the country among landlords: some of them come up with the idea of selling their homes.

According to the Yandex Rent service, in the cities with millions of residents, according to the results of the first two weeks of February, the average cost of renting an apartment for a month was 34 thousand rubles. At the same time, the rate decreased by only 0.9% compared to January.

A decrease in median long-term rental rates in the first half of February was recorded in seven of the 16 million-plus cities. It was most noticeable in Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod and Samara. Median rates also decreased in Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Chelyabinsk and St. Petersburg. Less significant fluctuations were also observed in Yekaterinburg, Krasnodar, Krasnoyarsk, Perm, Moscow, Novosibirsk and Voronezh.

Relative to the peak figures of last fall, rent continues to slowly become cheaper — 6% lower, confirmed Alexey Popov, chief analyst at Cyan. In February, prices decreased in Volgograd, Yekaterinburg, Kazan, the Leningrad region, Moscow, Novosibirsk and seven other major cities.

— In the near future, rates will become cheaper by 1% per month, — the expert believes. — Steady growth will resume no earlier than summer.

Why are prices going down?

Until the beginning of 2025, the rental housing market in Russia's largest cities was extremely scarce, especially during periods of peak demand, when the volume of available supply decreased to critical levels and this provoked a sharp increase in rental rates, Olga Pavlinova said.

"One of the reasons for the shortage of supply is that many buyers of housing under construction sold their properties on preferential mortgages and had to rent," she said. — Since after the abolition of the most massive preferential mortgages with state support, only family mortgages remained, starting in the second half of 2024, tenant demand began to shift from small-sized housing towards more comfortable living conditions.

Since that period, according to her, the average rental rates for two-bedroom apartments have been growing more dynamically. But it didn't last long. The increase in the sale time of secondary housing due to expensive mortgage loans led to the fact that some owners began to rent out their apartments in parallel with the search for buyers.

— In addition, as the houses were handed over, those who rented for this period began to move into their homes, and at the same time, the market continued to fill with investment apartments, — the expert explained. — All this led to the fact that the dynamics of supply growth began to lag behind demand and average rental rates for the first time in many years in some of the largest cities of Russia showed a decrease.

In all cases of price reductions, the same pattern is observed: an increase in the number of lots increases competition between landlords, which lengthens delivery dates and forces price expectations to be adjusted, said Natalia Kruglova, managing partner of Trophy Assets, an independent expert.

"This is not a collapse in demand, but a change in the balance of power in favor of the tenant," she said. — It is important to take into account that the current dynamics unfolds after the peak of the third quarter of 2024. At that time, the average rental rate in Moscow reached 110.5 thousand rubles at the end of the quarter. The growth was caused by the limited availability of market mortgages and the flow of demand for rent.

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Since the end of 2024, the market has entered a correction phase, as a result, 2025 and the beginning of 2026 have become a period of gradual normalization.

The trend towards stagnation or decrease in median long-term rental rates is typical for the winter months and is due to a period of seasonal lull associated with the New Year holidays, said Roman Zhukov, head of the Yandex Rental service.

— At this time, the activity of tenants is decreasing, which allows the supply in million-plus cities to be replenished more actively, including lots from the budget segment, — he noted. — Such dynamics restores the market, adjusting the price and increasing the exposure.

By the end of 2026, the increase in rental prices may be less than in the high season of 2025, Alexey Popov believes. After lowering the key rate, the activity of buyers in new buildings and on the secondary market will increase.