Last chances: will our athletes be able to win medals at the Olympics

Russian athletes have seven medal draws left to try to win medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics. The previous 15 attempts brought only the fourth place of skier Savely Korostelev and the sixth place of figure skater Peter Gumennik. The rest of our athletes, competing in a neutral status, finished outside the top 10. In the last week of the Games, the chances of figure skater Adelia Petrosyan, ski mountaineer Nikita Filippov and Korostelev running the marathon seem the most realistic.

Personal bests

Of the previous 15 medal attempts by the Russians, the only real disappointment was the result of Peter Gumennik. Many people believe that our single skater was sued in the free skate, and before that he was put at a disadvantage in the short program, forcing him to start in the first warm-up with the underdogs and forcing him to urgently change the musical accompaniment.

It really didn't look good. But we must understand that one of the goals of the sanctions against Russian sports at the Olympics is to keep our neutrals out of sight and out of earshot. The IOC managed to implement this in Paris 2024, where Russians were visible only in women's doubles tennis. To break through the wall, you need to create incredible things. Humennik, hand on heart, did not fully succeed.

—For a debutant of the Games, who also started in the first warm—up, sixth place is an excellent result," said two—time Olympic champion Evgeny Plushenko in an interview with Izvestia. — In the free skate, I mastered both nerves and technique, and performed five quads cleanly. I did my job very well in the most difficult conditions. We were rooting for him and worried about him. The guy is not only talented and humble, but also a fighter. Not a single muscle on his face has moved these days. At the 2026 Games, only he and Shaidorov rolled back all their content cleanly. If Petya had an international ranking, he would have left Milan with a bronze medal. These 3.75 points on the components were, of course, fiercely clamped down on him.

We had vague hopes for a breakthrough with regard to skiers, despite the lackluster results of the December and January stages of the World Cup and the Tour de Ski. Savely Korostelev was close to a medal in skiathlon (at the moment, this is generally the best result among the nine Russians who started), but stopped a step away from the podium. There was also a scandal due to the mistake of the French silver medalist Mathis Deloge (he cut the distance at the finish, but the judges limited themselves to a yellow card). However, in general, the results of the skiers turned out to be similar to the cup results, especially for Daria Nepryaeva, who apparently did not manage to get into her best shape.

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Yulia Pleshkova became the 19th in the supergiant, Daria Nepryaeva did not get into the top 20 of the ski race with a split start.

In other sports, expectations after numerous refusals of admission did not extend beyond the desire to gain Olympic experience. And so it turned out — there was no medal miracle in sledding, skating, short track and alpine skiing. One can argue how justified participation in the Games is, not for the sake of big wins, but in the name of personal records that are far from the podium. However, many of our athletes have managed to improve their performance on the Italian tracks, achieved at the World Cup stages in the short period when international competitions became available to us.

So far, there are no obvious failures at the current OI. Falls and disqualifications in short track are common. As for the double absenteeism in the quarterfinals of the ski sprint, there was initially a big risk here, and it did not materialize.

Realize all the chances

As for the upcoming medal layouts for our athletes, in three of the seven remaining draws there is only hope for a miracle. Daria Nepryaeva has a slightly better chance in the marathon on the last day of the Games, but it will require a feat and incredible luck (for example, with the new fall of the Swedes).

— It is more difficult for Dasha to perform than for Korostelev, — says Olympic bronze medalist Ivan Alypov. "She's just small in build. This can be seen against the background of the rivals. When the snow and speed are so fast, it's easier for the muscular girls. But it's good that at least they perform like this, they might not be there at all. So we wish only good luck to our guys.

But Savely Korostelev expects a serious result in the marathon, which will take place on February 21. Our young skier said from the very beginning that the classic mass start for him was one of the two main Olympic chances (the second was in skiathlon).

Of course, there is the undisputed favorite Johannes Klebo and three other very strong Norwegians, there is the recognized classical genius Finn Jivo Niskanen and a number of other excellent marathon runners. However, the Russian is definitely among the top 10 favorites, and then everything will be decided by the nuances of a particular race.

Nikita Filippov was not considered a medal contender back in early December. Olympic ski mountaineering is still terra incognita, and anything can happen in the first-ever competition at the Games in this sport. As the collapse of the favorites in Milan and Cortina in many other disciplines shows, the layouts based on the results of the recent World championships and the World Cup stages are sometimes completely crossed out at the main four-year starts. But there is reason to count on the podium for Filippov now — in January, at major competitions, he won two bronze medals in the sprint, which made him a contender for the medal of the OI-2026. That is, there is a chance — at least theoretically.

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Most of the attention will probably be focused on the performance of single skater Adelia Petrosyan. As Humennik's experience has shown, starting in the first warm-up by default throws the skater far away in the intermediate table, so if the Russian woman finds herself in the top ten after the short program, it will be an excellent result.

In addition, Adelia has many more competitors competing for medals than Peter. These are at least three Japanese women led by Kaori Sakamoto and three Americans led by Alice Liu. These two national teams have the strongest lineups in recent decades. And there are three more European champions — Anastasia Gubanova (Georgia), Luna Hendricks (Belgium) and Nina Petrykina (Estonia). Plus, strong Italian Lara Naki Gutmann is performing at home.

The ambitions of the competitors in women's single skating are very high, and the pressure on Petrosyan is huge. In the last three seasons, Adelia has won all the competitions she participated in (with the exception of the national jumping championships). But now the starting conditions are not the most favorable. In addition, there are health-related issues and the negative experience of unsuccessful free programs at the Moscow stage of the Russian Grand Prix and at the national championships.

And most importantly, the three-time champion of Russia may have the surest chance of a medal at the 2026 Games among the remaining neutrals. In this situation, even the third place will be a heroic outcome, and if Petrosyan wins Olympic gold, continuing the series of Olympic victories of our singles (they have not lost to anyone since the OI-2014), it will be a real celebration.