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The Velvet Evolution: how will the victory of the opposition in Bangladesh affect relations with Russia
The victory of the opposition BNP party in the elections in Bangladesh may have a positive impact on Dhaka's relations with Moscow. Likely Prime Minister Tariq Rahman, who has triumphantly returned from exile, intends to develop pragmatic ties with all the players. This is critically important for the completion of the construction of the Ruppur NPP, which Rosatom is engaged in. The republic is already involved in a number of associations, including the New Development Bank (NDB), the financial structure of the BRICS. At the same time, Dhaka faced a barrier on its way to full membership: according to Izvestia, Bangladesh's application was blocked by India.
Elections were held in Bangladesh
The parliamentary elections on February 12, 2026, marked Bangladesh's exit point from the protracted crisis that began in 2024. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which had long remained in opposition, won 209 seats out of 299. It is headed by Tariq Rahman, the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. His return to the country in December 2025 was a signal for change, and now it is Rahman who is being considered as the main candidate for the post of prime minister.
Chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party Tariq Rahman
In addition to the elections, the country held a vote on amendments to the constitution — the July Charter. This institutional reform is, in fact, a complete reassembly of the rules of the game, necessary to strengthen the system of "checks and balances" and reduce the risks of dictatorship. The package includes the transition to a bicameral parliament, the consolidation of a neutral government mechanism for the election period and the strengthening of the independence of the courts. There are also restrictions for the Prime Minister in favor of the powers of the president and the expansion of the rights of the opposition in Parliament. The new convocation of deputies should implement this set of measures.
The future prime minister will have to stabilize the financial system: inflation in the country has reached 8.58%, and rising prices have become the main problem for the population. Along with the economy, the authorities are facing a tough request to "purge" the state apparatus of corruption, which has remained a key problem of the republic for decades.
The stabilization of the economy itself will create many prospects for cooperation with Dhaka, Maria Savishcheva, researcher at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. Moscow will also be able to benefit from this.
The key project of the strategic partnership remains the construction of the Ruppur nuclear power plant, which is led by Rosatom. This two-unit station with a capacity of 2.4 GW is the largest infrastructure facility in the country's history. At the same time, the project is almost entirely financed by a Russian export loan of about $11.38 billion. According to forecasts, the launch of the first power unit will take place as early as 2026, which is critically important for an energy-deficient economy.
— This is too large-scale a project to talk about radical changes due to the coming to power of one of the oldest parties. Most likely, the project will continue, and it is beneficial for Russia to achieve stability in the country and ensure the normal implementation of this project," Savishcheva stressed.
Trade relations also show a high degree of interdependence, especially in the agro-industrial sector. Russia has firmly established itself as the main supplier of food for the republic: according to the estimates of the relevant missions, in 2024-2025, approximately 60% of all wheat imports to Bangladesh accounted for Russian grain. This is primarily due to the competitive price of our products.
India keeps Bangladesh out of BRICS
However, Moscow is unlikely to be perceived by Dhaka as the most priority partner — the United States and Western countries are considered the main destinations for NPB, Savishcheva stressed.
In addition, Bangladesh already has close ties with China and other regional players. The country is also represented in various associations, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Indian Ocean Basin Association.
In addition, Bangladesh is actively developing cooperation within the framework of the New Development Bank (NDB), the financial structure of the BRICS. Dhaka joined the association in 2021, which was initially considered in the business circles of the republic as a temporary alternative to membership in the association. This format allows you to access large resources without fully participating in the block.
Cooperation with the NBR is going well: the bank has already allocated $320 million for Bangladesh's water supply and plans to increase annual lending to $1 billion. However, the country's political ambitions to join the BRICS bloc itself have faced resistance from a major regional player. According to Izvestia, New Delhi did not support Dhaka's bid in 2023 during the bloc's summit in South Africa.
— China wanted us to be accepted, but India said: wait. As far as I know, India did not support it then," an informed source told Izvestia.
Beijing has repeatedly expressed its readiness to welcome the republic to the BRICS family. At the meeting in Johannesburg, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that he supported Dhaka's desire to join the bloc. However, within the association, the position of India and Brazil turned out to be tougher: the countries insisted on strict formalization of criteria for new members.
— Even when we had good relations with India, New Delhi did not want to support us. India strives to remain the only leader in its region," the Izvestia source added.
However, Bangladesh does not seem to have such a task right now. The republic, which is home to more than 170 million people, must first normalize the economic and political situation in the country in order to increase its weight in the international arena.
At the same time, New Delhi has never officially opposed the inclusion of new BRICS members. On the contrary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly stated that India supports the expansion of the association's membership, but advocates clear economic and diplomatic parameters for candidates. Izvestia sent a request to the Indian side asking for clarification of the position on the Bangladesh issue.
Nevertheless, when many countries, from Belarus to Uganda, received the status of a "partner country" after the Kazan summit in 2024, Bangladesh was not on this list. This year, the BRICS presidency is India, which, however, has already made it clear that no new expansion of the association is planned yet. The arguments in support of New Delhi's position are obvious: first, the integration of new participants must be completed and work with partner countries must be more clearly structured.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
