Option zero: Is the trade agreement between India and the EU dangerous for Russia
The free trade agreement between India and the EU, which the parties agreed on January 27, does not contain a clause on New Delhi's compliance with anti-Russian sanctions, the Embassy of the republic in Moscow told Izvestia. Although Brussels tried to include such a provision in the document, the European Parliament said. Russia will be able to assess the consequences of this deal only after the publication of all protocols, the Ministry of Economic Development clarified. However, it is already clear that the creation of a free trade zone between India and the EU does not close the door to concluding a similar agreement between the republic and the EAEU — negotiations on this issue are also underway, the ministry assured.
The essence of the agreement between the EU and India
On January 27, the European Union and India completed negotiations on the creation of a free trade area (FTA). This was announced at the 16th India–EU Summit. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the agreement the most important trade deal of all time.
Now the document will have to undergo legal verification, which will be the final touch in the negotiation process, which lasted almost 20 years. The parties hope that the document will enter into force within six months. After that, duties will be reduced on 97% of goods exported from the European Union. In particular, for cars — from 110 to 10%, for wines — from 150 to 75%. According to the EC, this will double the export of EU goods to India by 2032.
The Indian side can also count on a reduction in duties on its goods. According to the Indian Ministry of Trade, duties on goods that make up 90.7% of Indian exports to the EU will be completely reset. First of all, these are textiles, shoes, tea, coffee, spices, sporting goods, toys, jewelry.
At the same time, India is conducting a dialogue on the creation of a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). However, parallel negotiations with several countries or regional associations are a fairly common practice. Negotiations between the EU and India started back in 2007, and they were restarted in 2022.
"Therefore, we knew about the development of such an agreement long before launching our own negotiations with the Indian side,— the Ministry of Economic Development told Izvestia. — Any assessment of the potential effects of India's conclusion of an agreement with the EU can be made only after the publication of all agreements reached by the parties. As for the conclusion of an agreement between the EAEU and India [in the future], we believe that it will not only diversify and increase our mutual trade with New Delhi, but also equalize the competitive conditions for Russian exporters in the Indian market.
The ministry added that India already has a fairly extensive network of trade agreements — New Delhi's preferential partners account for about 30% of Indian imports. We are talking, for example, about Australia, the United Arab Emirates, the Republic of Korea, Japan, and ASEAN. The agreement with the European Union will increase this figure to 38%.
Meanwhile, the final approval of the EU-India deal was complicated by attempts by Brussels to politicize the process. During the negotiations, the European Union put forward conditions unrelated to trade, MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia.
"When discussing the FTA agreement, the European Union demanded the inclusion of a clause in it, according to which India had to comply with part of the European sanctions against Russia," he said.
However, this provision is not included in the final version of the document. New Delhi complies only with the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, the Indian Embassy in Russia told Izvestia.
— India does not support unilateral sanctions. Accordingly, there is no such clause in the document agreed between India and the EU," the diplomats said.
Why won't India cut ties with Russia
At the same time, it is possible that by insisting on "complying with part of the sanctions," the EU was referring to a ban on the re-export of European technologies and goods from India to Russia, suggested Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the IMEMO Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— If we were talking about some guarantees that the technologies and goods supplied to India under the FTA will not be transferred to Russia, then this is quite possible. The question is how effective such a mechanism will be," the expert noted.
Without a special mechanism to prevent re-export, which is unlikely to be created, such statements always remain only on paper, he added.
Separately, it should be borne in mind that relations between the Russian Federation and India have reached the level of a "particularly privileged strategic partnership," Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
— This can be seen in practical steps: the number of consular units in Russia is increasing, including, for example, in Yekaterinburg. This, in my opinion, indicates the continued interest in relations with India and the need to expand cooperation," the expert noted.
During Russian President Vladimir Putin's last visit to India, which took place on December 4-5, Narendra Modi stressed that relations with Russia "have always stood the test of time." This political will is also supported by concrete figures: the leaders have adopted a large-scale program of economic cooperation until 2030, setting a goal to bring trade turnover to $100 billion. According to the Indian government, by the end of the 2024-2025 fiscal year, trade has already reached a record $68.7 billion. At the same time, the main volume was accounted for by imports from Russia ($63.8 billion), which creates the need to equalize the trade balance. The key positions in Russia's exports are oil and petroleum products.
At the same time, Indian importers are still forced to take into account the threat of secondary sanctions from Washington on the issue of energy supplies. US pressure entered an active phase in August 2025, when the White House imposed additional 25 percent duties on a number of Indian goods, directly linking this to purchases of Russian oil. Thus, the United States is trying to deprive the Russian Federation of income from the sale of energy resources.
Nevertheless, New Delhi continues to pursue a sovereign course. In response to the American restrictions, the Indian authorities stated that they did not intend to abandon energy cooperation with Moscow, and Minister of Trade and Industry Piyush Goyal stressed that the country would not conclude trade deals under external pressure.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
