Thoughts on the past: Japanese business is ready to return to Russia
Japanese companies are waiting for a signal from their government to return to joint projects with Russia initiated in 2016 by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, told Izvestia. We are talking about an eight-point cooperation plan with the Russian Federation. Initiatives in the fields of agriculture, medicine, and the development of smart city technologies may resume. Moscow is ready to work together, so all that is needed is a decision from official Tokyo. But the prospects for this are not obvious, even though the ruling party led by Abe's follower, Sanae Takaichi, recently won early elections. The prospects for the return of Japanese business to Russia are described in the Izvestia article.
What projects are the Japanese willing to invest in in Russia?
Foreign businesses have repeatedly indicated their interest in resuming cooperation with Russia. The Japanese, who are waiting for a signal from the official authorities and de facto from Washington, are no exception. We are talking about investments in projects in the field of medicine, smart cities and agriculture from the plan of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Alexander Shokhin, president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), told Izvestia.
— Japan has several projects that are off to a low start. But nevertheless, they are also waiting for the signal. The only exception for the Japanese is energy. And everything else is frozen for now. There have been projects since the time of Shinzo Abe's eight points, and many of these projects were in a fairly advanced state until 2022. As far as I understand, they can be used fairly quickly, if not immediately," he said.
Shinzo Abe presented an eight-point plan for expanding economic cooperation between Japan and Russia to Vladimir Putin in Sochi in 2016. Among other things, it included the development of industry in the Far East, creating conditions there for increasing exports to the markets of the Asia-Pacific region, cooperation in the field of medicine, advanced technologies, expanding contacts between small and medium-sized businesses, etc.
In Russia, it was enthusiastically accepted and even began to be implemented in practice. The plan was focused on Russian regions so that their residents could experience positive changes in connection with cooperation with Japan, Oleg Kazakov, senior researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.
— In my opinion, the Japanese have previously conducted a certain survey with experts about what might be interesting to the Russian side. And the points indicated in the plan are really important for Russia and, in many ways, for the regions of the Far East, with which Japan has tried to cooperate most closely and often," the expert says.
The main goal of the medical projects was to increase the life expectancy of Russians. Therefore, investments were proposed to be directed to the creation of centers for cardiology, rehabilitation, as well as drugs to combat cancer and childhood diseases. Urban projects include the introduction of smart traffic lights to combat traffic jams, trenchless sewer and water supply repair methods that allow networks to be repaired without laborious excavation, and the introduction of waste recycling systems.
Finally, agricultural projects involved the construction of year-round smart greenhouses in harsh climatic conditions (for example, the Sayuri complex was built in Yakutia, where fresh vegetables, herbs and strawberries have been grown on permafrost using closed-ground technologies since 2016), the modernization of fish processing plants and the joint development of port infrastructure in the Far East for simplified export of Russian grain to Asian countries.
If Japan decides to return to the Abe plan, it will be useful for the Russian regions, but this should be preceded by the lifting of sanctions, Oleg Kazakov emphasizes. Vladimir Nelidov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is confident that this is unlikely now, given that even under Abe, no serious progress has been made in implementing the plan.
— The Japanese perceived this plan as economic concessions in order for Moscow to be more accommodating to satisfy Tokyo's territorial claims, which, of course, did not happen and could not happen. Now the situation is radically different, and there can be no question of any "gifts" to the Japanese side," he told Izvestia.
At the same time, even if Tokyo allows businesses to return to their projects, Moscow will accept them only after agreeing with foreign investors on their "binding" to the Russian economy, says Alexander Shokhin.
— So that it would not happen that they decided to leave and took away all the patents, all the know-how, including managerial ones. It is necessary to somehow negotiate agreements that this process should be smooth and should not ruin the business in which the investors were," believes the chairman of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.
At the moment, Japan retains its participation in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 energy projects. Tokyo continues to purchase Russian gas, despite pressure from the United States.
Will Japanese business return under Sanae Takaichi
When discussing whether Japanese investors will get the go-ahead to return to Russia, it is necessary to take into account who is at the head of the country today. Just a couple of days ago, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, won a resounding victory in the snap parliamentary elections. She won more than two thirds of the seats, 316 out of 465. This result will allow the LDP, led by Takaichi, to pass bills, even if they are rejected in the upper house of parliament, where the party does not have a majority, without the support of deputies from other political forces.
— She is a strong leader, she is a student of Abe, who built positive relations with Russia. Although for Takaichi today, the main task, of course, is the situation in the economy and the financial system of Japan itself. I don't think she will behave aggressively towards Russia," Oleg Kazakov argues.
According to the expert, today, due to disagreements with China over Taiwan and the non-commitment of the current US authorities, Japan will build a more independent and sovereign policy than before. At least during his visit to Japan in October 2025, Trump failed to persuade Takaichi to abandon purchases of Russian gas. In addition, under Joe Biden, Washington followed Tokyo's foreign policy more closely and tried to adjust it, but now the Trump administration is busy with larger-scale tasks, such as establishing control over the entire Western Hemisphere.
Trump's interests are increasingly focused around the fact that "America must come first," says Kazakov. Given the importance for Japan of strengthening its own sovereignty, there may be some kind of "window of opportunity" for building more constructive relations between Russia and Japan.
At the same time, it should be understood that today Japan unequivocally sides with Kiev in the Ukrainian conflict, as Takaichi stated in a personal conversation with Vladimir Zelensky in November 2025. Therefore, a drastic step towards restoring and developing economic ties with Moscow would contradict the entire logic of the country's current foreign policy, Vladimir Nelidov believes. Nevertheless, Moscow and Tokyo still have good prospects for resuming economic cooperation. And, obviously, the lifting of sanctions can give an impetus to this.
In turn, Russia is ready to review the list of unfriendly countries if any of them change their policy towards the country, as previously stated by press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. In this case, if Moscow and Tokyo become closer in the business sphere, this will be the key and the beginning of building new long-term relations between neighboring countries, Oleg Kazakov believes.
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