Demand elements: Japan has set its sights on the natural resources of Central Asia

Japan, amid strained relations with China, is interested in the natural resources of Central Asia, experts told Izvestia. Tokyo fears that China will stop supplying rare earth metals, so Japan will now seek to invest in their extraction in the neighboring region. Central Asia has the world's largest uranium reserves and significant amounts of minerals. On December 19-20, the first ever C5+1 summit will start in Japan, where these issues will be raised. But other major players, including Russia, China and the United States, are also interested in cooperation with Central Asia.

Japan's interests in Central Asia

The first ever C5+1 summit with Central Asia will be held in Japan on December 19-20. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the leaders of the five countries of the region - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — will meet in Tokyo. It is expected that this event will raise the level of dialogue, which has existed mainly at the ministerial level since 2004. They wanted to hold the summit back in 2024, but the attempt failed due to warnings of a possible powerful earthquake in the country.

A number of bilateral meetings are planned at the summit, where issues of strengthening strategic partnership will be raised. The agenda as a whole includes cooperation in the field of economics, specifically in the field of critical minerals, logistics, and renewable energy.

However, Tokyo is no stranger to the region. It was he who first initiated the format of the Central Asia + Japan dialogue back in 2004. Nevertheless, the country was not particularly active in this area.

Currently, Tokyo's key interests are related to rare earth metals and investments. Central Asia has the world's largest reserves of uranium and significant amounts of rare earths and non-ferrous metals.

— Japan's high-tech economy has absolutely no own raw material base. China is the global dominant in the rare earth metals chain. If the political situation changes, China may simply stop exporting them to Japan, where they are needed for economic development," Daria Saprynskaya, a researcher at the Laboratory for Modern Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia.

But at the same time, Central Asia is not a substitute for China for Japan, but rather a "safety net," the expert emphasizes. The region is a politically neutral space where Tokyo can invest in mining, participate in refining, and gain an institutional foothold.

Tokyo is also interested in developing logistics routes as an alternative to the unstable northern routes, Nicole Sukiasyants, a Japanese analyst at IKS RAS, told Izvestia. Japan is already actively using "soft power" against the region to realize its interests.

— Among them are cultural and educational exchanges, Japanese NGOs, financing of humanitarian projects, all of which formed a positive image of the country among the peoples of Central Asia. At the last EXPO 2025 in Osaka, some of the largest and most notable pavilions also belonged to the countries of the region," says Nicole Sukiasyants.

But the interest in cooperation here is not one-sided. Central Asia, against the background of its active development in recent years, is interested in access to technology and investment.

— Over the past decades, Japanese companies have invested about $9 billion in Kazakhstan: in the oil and gas sector, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, logistics and healthcare. Tokyo intends to increase volumes, an example of this is the plans of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation to invest an additional $200 million in energy, infrastructure, food processing and mechanical engineering, the analyst said.

The countries of the region also understand the specifics of Japanese investments — they are usually focused not just on the construction of facilities, but on improving the technological level of production, introducing safety standards and training personnel.

Of course, Central Asia has a purely political interest against the background of its dependence on Russia and China.

— The meeting with Japan at the forum is important primarily from the point of view of diversifying foreign relations. Japan provides an additional channel for investment and technology, which is not always limited to the formula of "raw materials in exchange for infrastructure," which is typical for China, said Nicole Sukiasyants.

Reaching out to China: Russia strengthens its presence in the Chinese media market

Continuation of "Red Silk", special edition of "Three Cats" and other strategic plans

Who is Central Asia currently cooperating with

At the political level, the planned Central Asia + Japan summit demonstrates Tokyo's intention to consolidate its long-term presence in the region, experts say. However, Tokyo does not seek to compete, for example, with Beijing in terms of infrastructure investments and credit lines, but relies on a "high-quality alternative," said Alibek Tazhibaev, director of the Eurasian Monitoring Analytical Research Center.

— The Japanese model assumes a focus on human capital, institutional development and the introduction of advanced technologies, and not only on the construction of roads and facilities. Tokyo consistently positions itself as a partner that does not create debt dependence, which is perceived in the region as an important distinguishing feature, the expert said.

Japan can take a strong position in the field of AI, robotics and cybersecurity in the region. Such cooperation is already being implemented with Kazakhstan.

Meanwhile, the C5+1 format is becoming increasingly popular in other countries. The Central Asian states are united not only geographically, but also in terms of common rules of the game.

— The region has a base that is associated with natural resources that are beneficial for creating new infrastructure and developing logistical links. It has a neutral political background," Daria Saprynskaya added.

In April 2025, the first summit in this format with the European Union was held in Samarkand. It ended with the signing of a joint roadmap to deepen ties. At that time, the EU promised the region €12 billion in investments as part of the Global Gateway initiative, the European equivalent of China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The second Central Asia–China summit was also held in Astana in June. At that time, industry agreements were signed in the field of energy and transport. Beijing has also promised grant assistance in the amount of about $209 million for projects in the region and 3,000 places for training specialists. Of course, the meeting also focused on the Belt and Road initiative, where Central Asia plays a key role as a transit hub.

On November 6, a summit in a similar format was held in Washington. Then the main topic of the meeting was the US interest in mineral reserves in Central Asia. The United States needs them in order to provide its industry with raw materials, namely, nuclear energy and the defense complex. Washington has repeatedly openly demonstrated its interest in resources.

One of the high–profile events of the autumn was the Central Asia-Russia summit in Dushanbe. At that time, a joint action plan for 2025-2027 was adopted, which focuses on strengthening trade and economic ties, developing investments, expanding humanitarian cooperation, ensuring regional security and creating new logistics routes.

Russia is now a key economic and political partner of all Central Asian countries. Moscow provides more than 30% of the region's foreign trade. The parties also cooperate within the framework of international organizations, including the EEA, the CSTO and the SCO.

Against this background, it is difficult to imagine that Japan could weaken cooperation between Central Asia and other partners, said Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector at IMEMO RAS.

— Japan is much less active and effective in the region now, unlike other players. Therefore, strengthening cooperation between Central Asia and Tokyo will in no way affect its relations with Russia and China, as well as the positions of these countries in the region," he explained to Izvestia.

Meanwhile, the Central Asia–Republic of Korea summit was also scheduled for 2025. However, the event was postponed to 2026 due to political changes in South Korea. However, Seoul, like Tokyo, is still more likely to be a catch-up party if we compare their immersion in the region with the level of interaction between Russia and China with Central Asian countries.