Learn, competitor: when expanding the agro-industrial complex, Argentina relies on fertilizers from the Russian Federation

Buenos Aires is counting on Russian fertilizers as the country's agricultural sector develops, the Argentine Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. In the five months of 2025, more than 250 thousand tons of mineral fertilizers from the Russian Federation were supplied to the republic, which is already significantly higher than the volume for the whole of 2024. Experts give a favorable forecast: against the background of a reduction in purchases of Russian fertilizers by the European Union, the Russian Federation has every chance to oust its main competitors — the United States, China and Morocco.

Export of fertilizers from Russia to Argentina

Russia has been positioning itself as one of the largest exporters of mineral fertilizers to Latin America since 2001. With increased supplies, in 2024, this region accounted for about 38% of exports of this type of Russian products. In particular, domestic fertilizers are actively being purchased in Argentina, despite the current very pro-Western policy of Buenos Aires.

In the first five months of 2025, the Latin American country imported more than 250 thousand tons of mineral fertilizers, compared with 217 thousand tons for the whole of 2024. In 2026, Russian fertilizers will be no less in demand in Argentina, the Embassy of the republic in the Russian Federation told Izvestia.

"We can say with confidence that as the Argentine agro—industrial sectors continue to recover and expand, Russian fertilizers will be in demand in our pampas, as was the case in the past," the diplomats stressed.

In 2025, Argentina forecast an 11% increase in fertilizer consumption, to 5.2 million tons. With the expansion of acreage (especially wheat and corn), farmers actively sought additional sources of supply, increasing imports from Russia. In addition, the soils of the Pampa (the main agricultural region of the republic) are historically rich in organic matter, but poor when it comes to phosphorus and potassium, which the country has to import.

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Therefore, despite the cooling of relations with Russia under the presidency of Javier Miley, economic cooperation, at least in this area, is actively developing. The government focused on reducing the costs of the agricultural sector, and Russian fertilizers offered the best value for money.

As a result, mineral fertilizers significantly boosted the growth of trade turnover between the two countries. In January — April 2025, it increased almost three times compared to the same period in 2024. Against this background, in July 2025, the parties signed a memorandum on expanding business cooperation at the level of business councils. According to the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAPU), a platform will be opened for direct working contacts between companies from both countries, as well as conditions for participation in joint projects.

Russia's competitors in the fertilizer market

Of course, the Argentine agro-industrial complex cooperates not only with the Russian Federation, especially as production scales expand.

"Imports are not exclusively from Russia, although it is undoubtedly one of the key suppliers for our country and the entire South American region," the diplomats said.

Russia competes with countries such as the United States and China. For example, according to open sources, in 2024, Russia exported fertilizers to Argentina for almost $123 million, the United States — for $148 million, and China — for $186 million. But the largest supplier of these products to Argentina, surprisingly, is distant Morocco ($411 million).

The choice of an African country is determined by the specific needs of Argentina. Buenos Aires buys mainly phosphate fertilizers, since corn, one of the main agricultural sectors of the country, requires hundreds of kilograms of fertilizers per 1 hectare. The expansion of crops increases the demand for phosphates accordingly. And it is Morocco that controls about 70% of the world's phosphate rock reserves, including in Western Sahara. The state-owned OCP Group exports 45% of the global volume of phosphate fertilizers.

But Russia has every chance to overtake its competitors. Morocco's leadership in the Argentine fertilizer market cannot be called indisputable, Alexey Kalachev, an analyst at Finam, told Izvestia. Large reserves of phosphorites do give the African country an advantage, but more than half of Argentine fertilizer imports are nitrogen fertilizers, and in this category Morocco cannot compete in any way — the country itself imports them.

"Russian producers of nitrogen fertilizers, having access to natural gas at regulated prices, have a competitive price advantage over anyone else," Kalachev emphasized.

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In this category, the main competition is in Latin America, and indeed in the world, with China. For example, Russia ranks second in the sale of nitrogen fertilizers to Brazil ($819 million in 2024) after China ($1.38 billion).

The main difficulty for the supply of Russian fertilizers to Latin American countries remains the large geographical distance and expensive logistics. The sea route from Morocco to Argentina takes about 18 days, while from Russia it takes more than 35. Logistics increases the cost of transportation and the risk of delays for planting campaigns.

In the future, the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur (the common market of South American countries), signed in January 2026, opens up new opportunities for exporting Russian fertilizers to Argentina. It aims to create one of the largest free trade zones in the world, covering a market of approximately 700 million consumers. The agreement opens the European market for food supplies from Latin American countries, which, in the future, may contribute to the growth of demand for fertilizers in these countries, Kalachev said. And Russia probably needs to expand its export routes — the European Union has increased duties on Russian fertilizers, thus reducing their purchases.

One of the potential risks for Russian exports to Argentina is the proclamation of the whole of Latin America as a sphere of U.S. interests. Washington has consolidated a return to the Monroe doctrine in 2025 in the National Security Strategy. According to the document, the United States will not allow competitors to deploy troops, own strategically important assets or control them in the Western Hemisphere, as well as prevent other potential threats there.

There is no need to go far for examples of the implementation of the new or old doctrine. After the operation in Venezuela in January 2026 and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, Trump declared that it was the cornerstone of his strategy, and the dominance of the United States in the Western Hemisphere would no longer be questioned. After that, Trump began an oil blockade of Cuba, threatening invasion.

Donald Trump has already announced his intention to oust China and Russia from Latin America. However, now the risk of cutting off fertilizer supplies from Russia and China in the region is unlikely, Kalachev added. According to him, US interests are mainly focused on oil, and it is unlikely that the United States will have time to establish control over the entire agricultural sector before the end of Trump's term as president.