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There will be cereals: Russia is ready to help Mexico solve the problem of wheat shortage
The Russian Federation is ready to increase wheat exports to Mexico and is able to quickly meet the demand for it on the local market. This was reported to Izvestia by Russian diplomats. There is a shortage of grain in the country due to a series of droughts. The interest of Russian companies in the Mexican market remains at a high level, but the development of these trade relations is largely hindered by the United States, although relations between Washington and Mexico City are currently very tense. The question of conducting a military operation in the republic by analogy with Venezuela is still open. What are the prospects for cooperation between Russia and Mexico in the new reality on the American continent — in the Izvestia article.
Wheat exports from Russia to Mexico
Russia is ready to increase wheat exports to Mexico. According to the statement of the Russian Embassy in Mexico City to Izvestia, domestic companies are able to quickly meet the demand in the Latin American market.
"Russian companies remain ready to increase wheat exports and are able to quickly meet demand in the Mexican market while improving market conditions and creating economically sound trading conditions," the ministry said.
By the end of 2024, the volume of purchases of Russian wheat by Mexico exceeded 700 thousand tons. There is a steady interest in this crop in the country, and Russian grains are competitive both in quality and price, the diplomats added.
Mexico is heavily dependent on grain imports due to repeated droughts and adverse weather conditions that limit domestic production. At the same time, the demand for wheat is growing as the population increases and the food industry develops.
About 139.2 million people live in the country, and its population is projected to increase by almost 2 million in 2026. This forces the country to look for reliable external suppliers. According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Research, at the beginning of 2026, the cost of wheat in Russia remains stable due to the oversaturation of the market, and it is this factor that becomes decisive when choosing supplies in Mexico. This gives Russia an advantage over fluctuating American prices.
However, overall, Russian wheat exports have recently declined. 82.5% of the main shipments of agricultural products in 2025 accounted for this crop — 27.9 million tons, while 32.5 million tons were delivered last season, which is 14% more.
Active competition in the global market was cited as the main reason for the reduction in wheat shipments. According to the Russian Grain Union, in the first half of the agricultural year, wheat was sold at a minimal discount or without a discount at all. In such conditions, it is quite difficult to realize the full export potential. The development of trade cooperation, including with Mexico, may provide new opportunities.
In general, the two countries have great prospects for expanding cooperation. The Russian Embassy stressed that the interest of domestic companies in the Mexican market remains at a high level and covers a wide range of industries and areas of cooperation.
"Among the priority areas are pharmaceuticals, information technology, energy and agriculture, where Russian business sees potential for mutually beneficial cooperation and is already conducting substantive work on possible projects," the diplomats noted.
Russian exports include chemical fertilizers, metal products, grain and rubber, while Mexico supplies coffee, pepper, pharmaceutical and food products to Russia, Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, told Izvestia.
According to the embassy, active work is currently underway in cooperation with the Roscongress Foundation and the Russian Trade Mission to explore possible formats for further business cooperation. In particular, the organization of a business mission is also being considered.
"However, at this stage it is premature to talk about specific dates, format and results — the discussion continues in cooperation with interested parties," the diplomats added.
In April 2025, the first Russia-Mexico business Forum was held in Mexico City. It hosted more than 150 direct negotiations with companies in the republic.
Difficulties in Russian-Mexican trade
However, there are also tangible difficulties in bilateral cooperation. Among them are sanctions restrictions, logistical difficulties, existing import duties and tariff measures, which in some segments hinder the expansion and diversification of the commodity range of bilateral trade, the embassy noted. Disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT system also creates problems for international settlements between Russian and Mexican companies.
On January 1, 2026, the Mexican parliament approved an increase in import duties on a number of goods from countries with which the republic does not have free trade agreements, including Russia. The increase ranges from 10% to 50% and applies to textiles, passenger cars, household appliances, motorcycles, soaps, perfumes, cosmetics, furniture, plastics and auto parts.
The Mexican authorities, whose economy is significantly dependent on foreign trade with the United States, explained their actions by the need to protect the economy and stimulate domestic production, Belenkaya noted. Despite the fact that a significant part of the trade turnover between the countries is not subject to import duties, the new restrictions significantly narrow the prospects for increasing cooperation, the embassy noted earlier.
At the same time, according to Russian Ambassador to Mexico Nikolai Sofinsky, the country's leadership, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, does not join the restrictions against Moscow in principle. He noted that Russia and Mexico have traditionally friendly relations.
Mexico City's principled approach may negatively affect its trade relations with the United States. Local companies are forced to balance while maintaining access to the American market, as Mexico City is one of the largest trading partners of the United States. According to the Census Bureau, in 2024, the trade turnover between these countries amounted to $839.9 billion.
The United States and Mexico are bound by the USMCA free trade agreement, under which most of the supply chains are built, Lyudmila Rokotianskaya, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, drew the attention of Izvestia. It is still difficult to imagine a significant expansion of trade relations between Russia and Mexico, the expert added. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico, the trade turnover with the Russian Federation in January–September 2025 amounted to only $988 million.
At the same time, relations between Mexico and the United States are quite tense. According to The New York Times, the Trump administration is increasing pressure to obtain permission to conduct operations to eliminate drug labs. Even before the invasion of Venezuela, the head of the White House admitted the possibility of strikes on Mexican territory. However, after the recent conversation between the leaders of the United States and Mexico, the situation has somewhat relaxed.
However, the Americans in Mexico are not planning anything like what happened in Venezuela, but there is a possibility that the United States will strike at one of the drug cartel camps in a remote area, Viktor Kheifets, chief researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. Another thing is that this can provoke an asymmetric response from the same cartels and unpleasant consequences for the US economy. This, the professor concluded, is exactly what those who say that it is not necessary to "meddle" in Mexico are concerned about.
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