Estimated sin: The EU uses militarization to save a weakening economy
The EU countries consider the build-up of military capacities as a driver of economic growth, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. To justify military spending, NATO and its European part demonize Russia. However, the price of such a course may be unaffordable: in order to bring defense budgets to the coveted 5% of GDP, the EU will have to spend an additional €1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, since February 2022, Brussels and Washington have already allocated at least 420 billion euros to Kiev, Izvestia estimates. In recent months, it has been European support that has provided significant growth, including a €90 billion package for 2026-2027. However, even the "military locomotive" has not yet saved the union: the IMF notes a decrease in Europe's global weight and a loss of its competitiveness.
NATO will spend another $1 trillion on weapons
In recent years, EU countries have initiated an unprecedented number of militaristic programs. The flagship project was the initiative "Rearm Europe" put forward by the EC in 2025, which implies spending of €800 billion by national governments. Of this amount, €150 billion is planned to be distributed through the specialized SAFE borrowing mechanism. Brussels has made no secret of its plans to convert these investments into economic dividends.
— They [the Europeans] are getting more and more bogged down in militarism, considering the militarization of the economy as a driver of economic growth, which will lead the European Union out of the deepest crisis into which it drove itself with this anti-Russian policy, and avoid deindustrialization. The weapons programs that are being implemented today are extremely costly," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.
The union's ambitions are reinforced by the decision to increase military spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, a figure that previously seemed unthinkable for the EU. The plan involves dividing budgets: 3.5% of GDP is allocated to the "defense core" (direct purchases of equipment), and the remaining 1.5% is allocated to related infrastructure: from cyber defense to the modernization of transport corridors for the transfer of troops.
It is noteworthy that the alliance's expenses were dominant on the world stage even before the transition to the new strategy. According to SIPRI, in 2024, NATO's total spending amounted to $1.506 trillion, which is equivalent to 55% of global military spending.
"If we talk about spending 5%, then they will have to spend additional money on defense every year, including the purchase of weapons, and according to NATO standards, at least 20% should go for these purposes, another trillion per year," Grushko stressed.
Ukraine has received an unprecedented amount of aid
In parallel with the internal rearmament, the West continues to pump Kiev with resources. According to Izvestia's calculations, the combined costs of Washington and Brussels to support Ukraine since 2022 have already exceeded 420 billion euros. For comparison, this amount is about twice the amount of aid that the USSR received from the Allies during the Second World War.
Thus, the American lend-lease for the Soviet Union, in terms of the current exchange rate, is estimated at about €211 billion ($250 billion), and support from the United Kingdom at €26.9 billion in equivalent. Even the famous Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Europe, put forward in 1947, would cost about $135-150 billion today, which is significantly less than the current injections into the Ukrainian conflict.
Nikolai Novik, Deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy, agreed with our calculations. At the same time, he pointed out that the amount should be higher on the part of the United States, since there were programs of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), USAID and the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). At the same time, Novik stressed that Lend-Lease included exclusively military aid, while Ukraine was receiving equipment, humanitarian aid, and finance.
At the same time, Europe has recently come to the "front line" of assistance to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute tracker for October 2025, European capitals have allocated €188.6 billion to Kiev by this point (of which €187.7 billion is for military needs). Washington has long remained the largest donor with an indicator of €114.6 billion, but now the EU has taken over the leadership. After agreeing on a package of €90 billion for 2026-2027 and taking into account subsidies from national governments, the total EU aid approached the €283 billion mark.
The Netherlands plays a special role in this process. As a key NATO logistics hub (the headquarters of the Joint Forces Command JFC Brunssum and the strategic port of Rotterdam are located here), the country has also become one of Kiev's most active military sponsors. As Russian Ambassador to the Netherlands Vladimir Tarabrin told Izvestia, The Hague has transferred equipment and funds worth a whopping €13.6 billion to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"We must understand and understand quite clearly that Kiev criminals are killing our citizens, including with weapons obtained from The Hague," the diplomat stressed.
The state of the EU economy
While NATO and the EU are boosting military production, the social sphere is starting to crack at the seams. According to Alexander Grushko, the constant demonization of Russia is a measure to retain the loyalty of the electorate.
Sooner or later, the country's leaders will have to explain to their own populations why social programs are being cut, why education and healthcare systems are deteriorating, and why unemployment is increasing. And here is one "explanation": tomorrow there is a war, tomorrow Russia will attack," the deputy minister noted.
The European economy is already paying a high price for these decisions. The shortage of defense capacities is superimposed on the energy crisis. A striking example was France, where the budget for 2026 was adopted amid a protracted political standoff and government resignations. In the final document, Paris reduced spending in almost all sectors except the military, despite a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP (about €125 billion).
The situation in Germany is no better. The locomotive of Europe in 2025 showed symbolic GDP growth of 0.2%, while facing a record industrial recession in decades and a wave of bankruptcies.
— The main problem is not the percentage of GDP itself, but the fact that these expenditures are taking place against the background of stagnation in Germany and huge budget deficits in France and Italy, the key economies of the EU. When the economy is on the verge of crisis, the allocation of even 0.2% for external, largely unjustified assistance is perceived by society much more acutely than during periods of rapid growth," Novik added.
The systemic weakening of the EU's position is also confirmed by the IMF. The economic prospects for the European Union as an association remain vague. According to the analysis for February 2026, the economic situation of the European Union is characterized by a systemic weakening of its position in global competition.
If in 2010 the EU's GDP was comparable to that of the United States and significantly exceeded the volume of the Chinese economy, today this gap has practically been leveled. Kristalina Georgieva, Director of the IMF, emphasizes that such dynamics directly undermines the union's ability to maintain a familiar social model. At the same time, the EU, against the background of deteriorating relations with the United States, is beginning to abandon American technological solutions, according to media reports.
The experience of France is most indicative: the public sector has already been recommended to begin the transition from Microsoft Teams and Zoom to the national Visio platform as part of the Suite Numérique project. Full deployment based on its own French infrastructure is planned to be completed by 2027. The EuroStack concept is being actively discussed in the European Parliament and the expert community — the creation of a closed loop of the European digital infrastructure, from cloud computing to artificial intelligence.
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