Accuracy check: Israel doubts Hezbollah's disarmament

Jerusalem doubts that Hezbollah is fulfilling the terms of the truce, despite Beirut's statements about the successful first stage of demilitarization south of Litani. According to an Israeli Izvestia source, the movement retains warehouses, launchers and fighters in the border area. The day before, the Israeli Air Force carried out 23 strikes in southern Lebanon, and Tel Aviv's attention is shifting to Iran amid rising tensions and the strengthening of the United States in the Persian Gulf.

Israeli Air Force launched 23 strikes on Lebanon

The southern regions of Lebanon were heavily attacked by the Israeli Air Force on the night of January 26. According to the Naharnet news portal, the fighters fired at least 23 times at ground targets. The strikes hit areas where Hezbollah militants had previously been active in connection with the restoration of military infrastructure.

Although earlier, Beirut announced the completion of the first stage of Hezbollah's disarmament south of the Litani River. According to the Government, the Lebanese army completed its tasks in accordance with the agreed schedule and deployed its units throughout the south of the country, with the exception of five positions where the Israeli army remains present. According to the Lebanese Armed Forces command, more than 10,000 troops are deployed in the region at about 200 positions. In addition, it was announced that 177 tunnels and 566 missile launchers had been discovered and neutralized.

However, the Israeli side calls these data into question. According to a military source in an interview with Izvestia, even after the announcement of the completion of the first stage of disarmament, numerous weapons depots and missile launch sites continue to exist, as well as attempts to restore infrastructure. According to him, the presence of Hezbollah fighters remains, including in areas south of Litani, which contradicts the terms of the agreements.

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The Lebanese Army said that operations to neutralize unexploded ordnance and tunnels will continue, as well as measures to prevent the restoration of the armed groups' capabilities. At the same time, Beirut blames the ongoing Israeli strikes, the maintenance of its military presence in certain Lebanese positions and repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement concluded in November 2024 for delaying the process.

Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Lebanese University, warns that an attempt to disarm Hezbollah by force against the background of ongoing Israeli strikes could lead to internal destabilization in the country. In his opinion, the movement does not feel that there are real guarantees of security, either for itself or for a significant part of the Lebanese population. Vakim stresses that in the face of growing regional and international pressure, this poses a direct threat to stability.

— The pressure on Beirut is largely aimed at pushing the country to start direct negotiations with Israel, a course supported by the United States of America. A further increase in tension is not excluded, but I consider the likelihood of a full-scale war at this stage to be relatively low due to the continued deterrent potential of Hezbollah," the expert told Izvestia.

Israel shifts focus to Iran

The cease-fire in the fall of 2024 ended more than a year of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which began after the movement's strikes on the territory of the Jewish state the day after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. In December 2025, with the mediation of the United States, two meetings of civilian representatives of Israel and Lebanon took place in Naqoura in the south of the country. Formally, the talks were devoted to issues of economic cooperation, but at the same time Israel made it clear that it was ready for a much larger military campaign if Hezbollah did not take real steps towards disarmament.

Amid doubts about the effectiveness of Hezbollah's disarmament, the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, allowed the option of "freezing" weapons — keeping them in the movement, provided they are not used.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raji admits that due to a lack of resources and personnel, the army is not able to simultaneously disarm Hezbollah south and north of Litani. On January 12, he actually confirmed that the demilitarization of the southern regions had not been completed, despite previous government statements.

Hezbollah itself categorically rejects the possibility of giving up weapons. The Deputy Secretary General of the movement, Naim Qassem, has repeatedly stated that the weapons of the "resistance" are not seen as a problem, but as the basis of Lebanon's defense. The movement emphasizes that they will keep their weapons as long as the Israeli occupation exists.

According to Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, the situation around Hezbollah is approaching a turning point when it becomes clear whether its dynamics will lead to a new war.

— Since the fall of 2024, the movement has noticeably weakened and is experiencing the most serious crisis in its history, but it has not been completely neutralized. This is what creates a rare "window of opportunity" for Israel and its allies to further weaken the group. In the case of disarmament, Hezbollah risks being ousted by internal competitors, and the movement itself is well aware of this, which largely explains the refusal to surrender weapons, Roman Yanushevsky told Izvestia.

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The Israeli media noted that the formal deadline by which Hezbollah was supposed to disarm expired on January 1. Nevertheless, despite the threats from Israel and the United States, the situation on the northern front remains in the mode of limited strikes and restrained confrontation. The Israel Defense Forces continues so-called preventive airstrikes against movement targets, while Hezbollah itself refrains from large-scale escalation.

According to press reports, in recent weeks, there has been a shift in focus in Israel towards the Iranian direction, where tensions are rising amid internal protests and discussions about possible US actions. Under these conditions, Israel seeks to keep the Lebanese front under controlled pressure, without involving all resources in the confrontation with Hezbollah.

At the same time, the Israeli leadership considers regional trends as interrelated and does not rule out that further escalation around Iran may lead to the involvement of the Lebanese factor as an instrument of pressure on Tehran and its allies.

Against this background, the United States is actively increasing its military presence in the Persian Gulf. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group is advancing towards Iranian territorial waters, and attack aircraft squadrons and additional THAAD anti-missile systems are being deployed in neighboring countries. In early January, the US administration publicly admitted the possibility of military intervention in Iran for the first time. On January 2, President Donald Trump said that in the event of a violent crackdown on protests in the Islamic Republic, the United States would "come to the aid" of the demonstrators, hinting at its readiness for direct intervention.

As for the possible US involvement, Roman Yanushevsky suggests a scenario of a limited demonstrative operation — a series of strikes against symbolic targets of the Iranian regime without large-scale military involvement, after which Washington will be able to register a political effect. At the same time, he considers it unlikely that such a format will lead to a change of power in Iran.