- Статьи
- Economy
- The call of nature: the Ministry of Energy allowed a return to oil and gas supplies to Europe
The call of nature: the Ministry of Energy allowed a return to oil and gas supplies to Europe
Russia has allowed a return to commercial supplies of domestic energy resources via traditional routes to the EU. The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation told Izvestia that this is possible with the lifting of sanctions and the presence of interest from European counterparties. The energy department made such a statement against the background of the escalation of trade and political relations between the United States and Europe, which jeopardized the energy security of the EU countries. How the next transatlantic tariff standoff can change the balance of the global gas and oil market and what role Russia will play — in the Izvestia article.
On the dialogue between the USA and Europe
The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation has allowed a return to commercial energy supplies to Europe via traditional routes. This is how the department commented to Izvestia on the situation against the background of the escalation of trade and political relations between the United States and Europe, which jeopardized the energy security of the EU countries.
— The Russian Federation has not refused to develop energy cooperation with the EU countries and has consistently advocated its preservation on a mutually beneficial and market-based basis. A significant reduction in cooperation in the fuel and energy sector, including oil and gas supplies, has occurred since 2022 at the initiative of the European side as a result of the imposition of sanctions restrictions. If they are removed and there is interest from European counterparties, a return to commercial supplies of Russian energy resources via traditional routes is possible," the ministry's press service said.
They also noted that in order to return to pre–sanctions volumes of gas supplies to the EU, it will be necessary to restore the operability of the relevant export infrastructure, including the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, damaged as a result of sabotage.
Recall that against the background of the conflict over Greenland, Washington announced that they would start charging duties of 10% from Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland, France and Sweden until an agreement was reached on the purchase of Greenland. According to The Financial Times, in response to the threats of the American leader Donald Trump, EU countries are considering the possibility of imposing duties on goods from the United States worth €93 billion or restricting the access of American companies to the European market.
In the summer of 2025, an agreement was reached between the United States and the EU, according to which European goods sent to the United States will be subject to a duty of 15 percent rather than 30 percent. In exchange for the tariff reduction, the EU promised to abandon Russian oil and gas supplies and annually purchase $250 billion worth of energy from the United States during the three years of Donald Trump's rule.
According to the Bruegel European analytical center, the United States currently ranks second in terms of gas supplies to the EU (82.9 billion cubic meters, 26.4%). Norway is the leader (97.1 billion cubic meters, 31%), followed by Algeria (38.6 billion cubic meters, 12.3%). According to the center, Russian gas exports to the EU in 2025 decreased by 30% compared to the previous year, to 38 billion cubic meters, mainly due to the termination of transit through Ukraine.
It is also worth recalling that the Council of the European Union adopted a resolution according to which, from January 1, 2026, a complete ban on the transit of Russian natural gas through the territory of the EU to third countries will be introduced. Nevertheless, if individual states have long-term contracts, they can legally import energy resources from the Russian Federation until 2028. In addition, a similar ban is under discussion, only for the purchase and import of Russian oil.
According to Tamara Safonova, director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not take into account the risks of a possible escalation of relations and the continuation of trade wars when concluding a deal with President Donald Trump in 2025.
"The double standards of the American president may become an excuse for many former US allies to review their trade policy and strategy for cooperation in the fuel and energy sector and influence the swing in global oil prices," the source said.
How can the gas market change
The volume of imports of American LNG to Europe can be estimated at about 75 billion cubic meters. m in a regasified form, said Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Security Fund.
— This is about half of the total American LNG exports and also about 50% of LNG imports by the EU and the UK. The share of American gas in consumption is slightly less than 20%. Of course, Europe cannot take and abandon these volumes in the context of the declared refusal of energy cooperation with Russia, however, as well as impose duties, because most of the American gas in the EU is sold by European and Asian companies," the expert told Izvestia.
Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner of Kasatkin Consulting, partly agrees with this opinion.
— The situation is unlikely to affect the EU's attitude towards the purchase of Russian gas. Politically, Europe has already demonstrated that it is ready for restrictions at any cost. But, despite this, individual countries in the union will take a rather tough position, and the timing of a complete refusal may, with some probability, be postponed," the expert believes.
In his opinion, in general, if the confrontation between the EU and the United States expands to a full—fledged trade war, it will really change the balance of the LNG market - in such a situation, American gas will be redirected to Asia, and Middle Eastern gas from Asia to Europe.
— In terms of long—term contracts, everything will happen under serious pressure on the EU, and as a result they will receive an average cost significantly higher than the current values, plus prices can seriously skyrocket at the time of rebalancing, - Dmitry Kasatkin believes.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, admitted an increase in gas supplies to Europe during the escalation of the tariff war. He recalled the possibility of pumping up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas through one of the branches of Nord Stream 2. m per year. At the same time, the expert does not exclude the possibility of supplies through Ukraine.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to major Russian oil and gas companies.
What awaits the oil market
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, after the introduction of the price ceiling for Russian oil in 2022, its exports to Europe decreased to a minimum. Raw materials from the Russian Federation are supplied to the region via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, in accordance with the exception granted by the EU. The share of the Russian Federation, according to her, is no more than 3%, while the share of the United States is almost 20%.
Europe just needs to freeze the sanctions on Russian oil, Igor Yushkov believes. In this case, part of the volumes that are supplied to India can be redirected to the EU, he noted.
— This is economically beneficial for everyone, taking into account, among other things, the short transport shoulder, — said the expert.
According to Dmitry Kasatkin, for oil, trade wars are always a driver to lower prices. Both rising geopolitical costs and shipping costs will be affected, so price volatility will definitely increase.
However, according to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, today it is clearly premature to talk about restoring large-scale energy cooperation between the European Union and the Russian Federation. On the other hand, according to the expert, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's cautious statements about Russia as a European country with which the EU will achieve a balance in relations are a logical return to the centuries—old experience of the development of the European continent based on the concept of the "Russia–Germany" axis.
— I hope that over time, pragmatic calculation will prevail, because the purchase of oil and gas overseas, the import of petroleum products from India, etc., is an economic blindness and an evolutionary dead end for the European Union. This is understood not only by industrialists, investors, but also by politicians, despite the vivid speculative statements about the complete severance of relations with the eastern neighbor," the deputy noted.
However, according to Yuri Stankevich, "in the event of a change in the current geopolitical paradigm, Russia will have to weigh many pros and cons when assessing the prospects for economic cooperation with the EU in order to avoid risks, the implementation of which will again jeopardize national interests."
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
