Leo in winter: Europe is "eating up" its last gas reserves

By the beginning of winter, the underground gas storage facilities in Europe were already half empty. The situation is not considered critical yet — if the weather does not fail. However, the task of "filling the pot" for the next season has become much more complicated. In addition, the EU is increasingly dependent on spot gas supplies with high price volatility. The situation is extremely unstable for the industry. For more information, see the Izvestia article.

There's half of it left

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), gas reserves in the EU's underground gas storage facilities (UGS) have fallen to 53% — 53.9 billion cubic meters of gas remain in them. It was worse only in early January 2022 (49.04%).

Last cold season, a similar indicator was observed only in early February. At the same time, in the first 12 days of January, the average gas consumption from the EU UGS was 1.6 times higher than the average for the same days over the past five years.

Thus, this winter, Europe began to "eat through" the insurance cushion earlier than usual, the margin of safety decreased, and vulnerability to temperature extremes increased.

Photo: Global Look Press/Stefan Sauer

The air temperature in Europe in January 2026 is tending to the lowest values in the last nine years. In general, this January (the coldest winter month), the air temperature is expected to be two degrees below the climatic norm and three degrees lower than last year.

In these conditions, the reliability of the energy system is supported primarily by the resource of underground gas storage facilities.

As long as it lasts

The target level of filling of European storage facilities by November 1, legally established by the EU, is 90%. Anything lower by the beginning of winter is already a risk. As for the end of the season, the red line is considered to be the balance of less than 20% by the end of the heating season (for March-April). This level does not provide the necessary buffer to manage peak demand and compensate for supply disruptions.

Crisis situations usually occurred when stock levels dropped below 30% at the end of winter. So, in 2017-2018, stocks decreased to 18% in March, which led to chaos in the market and accelerated replenishment in the summer at high prices. In 2021-2022, 77% of the storage facilities were filled before the winter, and by the end of the season only 26% remained. As a result, there has been a record jump in gas prices, market panic, and an energy crisis.

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So far, according to analysts, the situation does not look critical: there should be enough for this winter, there should be no shortage.

Photo: Global Look Press/Lars Penning

— However, the inventory level signals a sharply increased sensitivity of the system to weather and supply disruptions. This is the main risk. On the one hand, 53% is below the seasonal norm when compared with the last two winters, when Europe entered the heating season with record reserves," says Olga Veretennikova, vice president of Borsell analytical company.

The cold weather is already pushing prices up: for the first time since October 2025, exchange prices for gas have exceeded the mark of $400 per thousand cubic meters. The jump is associated with abnormally high fuel consumption from underground storage facilities (UGS) at the beginning of the year

Spot purchases

The effects of increased gas consumption this winter are expected to spread to preparations for the next season.

As Olga Veretennikova explains, if Europe ends the season with significantly lower UGS reserves than usual, the spring-summer injection period in 2026 will be intense. This means maintaining high demand for LNG outside the heating season, which can support prices and increase competition with Asia.

Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Jens Koehler

— The Europeans will have to actively purchase gas on the spot market and operate at a price premium. On average, the cost of imports will increase by 10-15%, which will negatively affect the energy, industry and housing and communal services of the EU member states. There is a galloping increase in wholesale prices in the domestic market now, and this trend will become sustainable," explains Pavel Maryshev, a member of the expert council at the Russian Gas Society.

An uncertain position

Europe is actively compensating for the shortage of pipeline gas supplies from Russia by importing LNG. By the end of 2025, the countries of the continent imported 109 million tons, which is 28% more than in 2024. This year, the United States promised to literally "flood" Europe with its liquefied natural gas.

However, according to Maryshev, everything is complicated by the fact that the large-scale energy agreement between the European Union and the United States (which formed the basis of the EU's "new energy security") is still being implemented with a creak: the LNG volumes promised by Trump are preferred by the spot market, where Asia is still more attractive.

Photo: Global Look Press/Stefan Puchner

This means that the Europeans will have to behave more cautiously in the international arena: they will have to meet major gas suppliers, in particular the Persian Gulf countries, halfway. It may even be necessary to remove some of the environmental requirements, the expert believes.

He does not rule out that in this situation, Europeans will care less and less about tracking the country of origin of LNG. Accordingly, shadow logistics chains with Russian liquefied natural gas will be formed.

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Risks for the industry

Of course, the leaky buffer, the increased need for the EU to purchase gas on the spot market at high prices, and questions about supply stability pose a threat primarily to energy—intensive industries and large industrial consumers.

— Even without a formal deficit, price volatility is getting higher, which worsens planning, reduces capacity utilization and affects the competitiveness of European industry. First of all, chemicals, metallurgy, the production of fertilizers and building materials are under pressure — industries that have already reduced output in recent years and remain sensitive to energy costs," Maryshev points out.

For stagnating European industries, any increase in tariffs may again become a reason for further relocation of industrial capacities outside the EU.