Borrowed labor: businesses have started actively recruiting loans
In the second half of last year, businesses began actively recruiting loans, despite the continued high interest rates. If in the first six months of 2025 the total volume of loans to non-financial organizations increased by only 600 billion rubles, then over the next five years the increase amounted to 6.5 trillion rubles — the total debt of such companies increased to 82.1 trillion rubles. This follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. Moreover, towards the end of the year, the pace of lending accelerated noticeably: In November alone, business debts increased by 1.5 trillion. At high rates, this trend can drive up prices through costs, experts warned.
Why have companies' borrowings skyrocketed
The total volume of business loans and borrowings began to grow sharply by the end of 2025. In the first six months, the debts of non—financial organizations hardly changed - they increased by only 600 billion rubles. However, they have been growing almost continuously since July. In five months, the figure jumped by 6.6 trillion rubles and reached 82.1 trillion rubles at the beginning of December. This follows from the data of the Bank of Russia, which was analyzed by Izvestia. Thus, corporate debt increased by more than 8%.
The most active growth occurred in autumn. The increase was moderate in the summer, but since September, the increase has exceeded 1 trillion rubles per month. This indicates a noticeable acceleration of business lending activity in the second half of the year.
The main part of the debt is still formed by loans in the national currency. During the period under review, borrowings in rubles increased by more than 6 trillion rubles. Foreign currency loans also grew, but much more slowly.
There is a noticeable and worrying trend in the market: after a period of relative stagnation in early 2025, businesses began to actively increase their debt burden, confirmed Egor Zinoviev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. According to him, this surge is in particular contrast to the cautious behavior of borrowers before. However, the essence of what is happening is not an optimistic expansion, but a forced adaptation to difficult conditions.
Today, about 80% of Russian companies need additional financing, primarily to close cash gaps and pay for current expenses, explained financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, many companies postponed making loans during the period of record high interest rates, expecting them to decrease. Even a slight easing of monetary policy last year was a signal to some businesses that they could not wait any longer. In June, the Central Bank began lowering its key rate from 21% for the first time in six months.
Business behavior was influenced by expectations of a reduction in the key rate, as well as a seasonal revival of business activity, said Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. According to him, companies traditionally increase the need for working capital in the fall, including due to the build—up of inventories before the end of the year, the completion of projects and the expectation of revenue from government contracts.
Other reasons for the increase in borrowing include the change in foreign economic conditions in recent years and the policy of import substitution, which requires additional investments, Alexey Rodin added. Therefore, businesses are looking for sources of financing, and lending is one of the main methods to gain a base for development and growth when an organization is in dire need of finance.
According to Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, excessive business optimism also influenced the growth of borrowings. In the summer, many companies expected that rates would start falling faster, and by the end of the year, demand for loans had traditionally increased. In the fall, individual large industries were more active, and by December, almost all went for loans.
The main drivers of market growth are now large companies that have greater financial stability and can afford to attract loans at current rates, said Elena Potemkina, head of Alfa-Bank's corporate business lending department. In particular, in housing construction, developers can attract financing at reduced rates from funds in escrow accounts, and in a number of industries there are preferential programs through relevant ministries and VEB.RF.
At the same time, the current lending rates are at the upper limit of the Bank of Russia's guidelines and look too high from the point of view of combating inflation, Ilya Fedorov emphasized. Already in December, according to operational data, the growth of debts began to slow down. Next, the key indicators for the Central Bank will be the first quarter of 2026.
What could be the threat of a jump in business debts
The growth of business borrowings is largely forced, said Aigul Zalegdinova, Communications Director at IC AKBF. According to her, companies are taking more active loans not out of optimism, but out of necessity: operating costs are rising, the need to refinance old debts and close cash gaps is increasing. In these circumstances, credit becomes a tool for maintaining current operations, rather than expanding the business.
Debt growth is more of a forced measure than a sign of recovery, agreed Egor Zinoviev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. He warned that in conditions of high interest rates, this increases the economy's dependence on borrowed money and makes it more sensitive to any external shocks. According to him, the share of interest expenses in profits has become so large that companies have to take out new loans (even at high interest rates) to pay off old debts.
At high rates, credit growth can drive up prices through increased costs. The risks of defaults in certain industries are also increasing. For example, back in August, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin stated that about 20% of developers were in danger of bankruptcy.
Against the background of a slowing economy, declining demand in certain industries and tight monetary policy, the Central Bank noted a decline in business revenues from record levels in previous years. In addition, due to the slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy, credit risk is becoming a key vulnerability, according to the materials of the regulator. The situation of individual accredited companies is deteriorating.
In the future, reducing interest rates as inflation slows will help reduce the interest burden of organizations, the Central Bank expects.
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