For a rainy day: why metals synchronously broke all records
On January 14, a rare event occurred on the global commodity markets — simultaneously gold, silver and copper set historical highs. Even against the background of the general market boom (especially among securities in the United States), these are impressive figures, especially since all of these metals have grown multiple times in a matter of years or even months. At the same time, several reasons converged at once, most of which can be defined as a threat of shocks, whether in the global financial system or in geopolitics. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Silver as an investment asset has historically been considered the "younger brother" of gold. Despite its obvious advantages — much wider use in industry — its weaknesses are also well known. This means greater difficulty in storage and transportation, and less liquidity. During the gold boom of the 2010s, silver remained on the sidelines. In 2020, the price ratio between gold and silver was close to a historic high.
However, while gold has doubled since then, silver has more than quadrupled in price. $92 per ounce is still lower, adjusted for inflation, than at the historical peak in 1980, but much higher than at any other time period, including a short—term rise in April 2011. The effect was so significant that it even affected retail. For example, Costco American hypermarkets banned the sale of more than 1 ounce of silver in their hands due to a shortage in the market.
According to statistics, there are indeed signs of a shortage. The boom in renewable energy sources (primarily solar) has provoked an increase in demand for silver, which, although it accounts for only 0.14% of the mass of the average solar energy module, accounts for 10% of the cost. Since 2019, silver consumption in solar power plants has increased every year. 2025 may still be an exception: according to forecasts in the fall, panel manufacturers may reduce the use of silver by 7%. However, this will be done because of too high prices, and not because of constructive innovations that could replace the precious metal. The search for alternatives in the industry is still underway.
At the same time, things have been much worse with silver mining lately. Over the past 10 years, the production level has decreased by 80 million ounces per year (approximately 8%). This figure can be compared with the closure of several large mines at once. Indeed, many silver producers have switched to gold or mixed production, in which silver mining suffers. Another question is how much this reduction can justify such a price increase.
The most interesting thing about the current processes is that in recent months, not only gold, silver, and platinum and palladium have been growing (although they are, of course, leaders in terms of rates), but also completely "base" non-ferrous metals. For example, copper, which also set a new record value, has risen in price by one and a half times since the beginning of last year. Aluminum and nickel are rising in price. At the same time, the overall background in the markets remains moderate. We do not see a rally in oil, despite the fact that the aggravation of the situation around various oil and gas powers should be in the hands of black gold. In other words, we are talking about the rise of metals exclusively, with precious elements at the forefront. What could be the reasons?
Inflation and the crisis around the Fed
The fear of a new surge in price growth in developed economies, and primarily in the United States, is great. Until now, inflation remains above 2.5%, which is very high by the standards of the last 20 years. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that rates are still extremely high compared to previous years, but this does not bring down prices. And then there's US President Donald Trump trying to remove the head of the Federal Reserve from office, hoping to replace him with a more accommodating banker.
— On Monday, the news came that the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had been investigated by the prosecutor's office. This is clearly interpreted by market participants as pressure from Trump on the Fed chairman in order to push him to lower interest rates," says Evgeny Goryunov, head of the monetary policy laboratory at the Gaidar Institute.
Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell
According to him, this is an extremely dangerous precedent that undermines confidence in the US currency, which is largely based on the understanding that the Fed is independent of the government and the president, which means that the printing press will not turn on on a call from the White House.
Financial sovereignty and currency risks
Sanctions against Russia and the freezing of Russian reserves (and now attempts to confiscate them permanently) have strained the largest players in the global economy. The dollar and the euro have lost their status as "neutral" assets, and their transformation into a political instrument has finally taken shape.
According to Valeria Bagishvili, an analyst at Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting, the rise in gold prices really reflects the geopolitical demand for "financial sovereignty."
— The central banks of countries outside the dollar bloc (China, Turkey, and other countries in the Middle East and Asia) are consistently increasing their gold reserves in order to de-dollarize and mitigate sanctions risks. In the first 10 months of 2025, net purchases by the world's central banks amounted to about 320 tons of gold, which is 1.5 times higher than the estimated average annual level, the expert states.
Kirill Lysenko, an analyst on sovereign and regional ratings at Expert RA rating agency, noted that the outstripping dynamics of the value of precious metals is largely due to the unpredictable dynamics of the value of foreign exchange and financial assets in the foreseeable future.
— When it is said that gold, silver, and the like are protective assets, inflationary risks are regularly recalled, but currency risks are often overlooked. In 2025, the dollar performed very weakly (-9% YoY). Accordingly, this greatly offset the profitability of American financial instruments for foreign investors. In particular, this applies to central banks. In the context of the negative dynamics of the dollar exchange rate, the real yield of US government bonds (the traditional key instrument for accumulating gold reserves) in terms of national currencies also turned out to be significantly lower, the Izvestia interlocutor recalls.
In addition, he notes, in the realities of geopolitical tensions, sanctions risks are becoming more pronounced. Storing instruments in foreign banks and depositories in the new reality is taking on increased risks, in particular for China.
The objective demand of the economy
As Bagishvili explains, these arguments hardly apply to silver.
— Silver is hardly used in official reserves, as its storage is less convenient, the market is less deep, and volatility is higher. Central banks practically do not consider silver as a reserve asset. The increase in its prices is primarily due to increased demand from investors and industry, rather than government regulators. In addition, the silver market is in short supply for the fifth year in a row: production is stagnating, while demand is growing. Silver stocks in London, Shanghai and partly COMEX stock exchanges decreased significantly in 2025, reflecting the flow of metal to India and other Asian consumption centers, Valeria Bagishvili points out.
As for the increase in platinum prices, the Izvestia interlocutor attributes it to the recovery of demand from hydrogen technologies, jewelry manufacturers and investment interest.
— In 2025, the demand for platinum from jewelers, according to preliminary estimates, increased by 11%, and the volume of investments in coins and bars increased by 45%. At the same time, production in South Africa was limited due to frequent energy shortages, environmental policy requirements and sanctions," the expert noted.
Inventory formation
According to Kirill Lysenko, geopolitical risks are added to everything. In the context of uncertainty related to trade wars, forecasting the profitability of financial instruments (especially high-risk ones) becomes more difficult. In addition, many countries have started making supplies in case of an aggravation of the situation in the world since the COVID-19 pandemic. This applies not only to gold and oil, but also, for example, food. It is all the more important to make reserves of metals. This is doubly convenient, because in the event of a full-fledged conflict between the great powers, it would be very useful to have a "stash" of critical materials and deploy military production independently of other countries, including potential opponents. Well, metals are much easier to store and sell than any other assets, especially in a situation of sanctions.
There are more than enough countries that could make such investments in 2025-2026 — the current tensions have affected everyone in one way or another. But it is especially worth highlighting China, which has almost endless opportunities to play in such a market. It was China's involvement (which is currently impossible to prove on the facts) that could boost the price of metals across the entire spectrum.
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