Could Trump strike Iran over the protests? Analysis

US President Donald Trump has hinted several times that he might approve strikes against Iran in connection with the ongoing anti-government protests in the country. Just six months ago, he had already ordered the bombing of the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities. The likelihood of escalation increased after the US military managed to carry out an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. How likely is a US military intervention in the Iranian protests is in the Izvestia article.

What Trump said

• At the height of the protests in Iran, US President Donald Trump made several statements about the situation in the Islamic Republic. He noted that Washington has "several very serious options" for how to respond to what is happening. Trump has made it clear that the brutal suppression of protests, which leads to civilian casualties, could lead to military intervention.

• After Tehran threatened to attack American military installations in the Middle East if the United States sided with the protesters, Trump openly promised to launch military strikes. At the same time, the US president said that the Iranian leadership had requested talks with him about concluding a nuclear deal. Trump has been seeking its conclusion since the beginning of his second term in the White House.

There have been mass protests in Iran. What you need to know

• Trump's recent statements can already be unequivocally interpreted as an intention to support the protesters not only in word, but also in deed. He urged the demonstrators to continue their demonstrations and said that "help is on the way" for them. The head of the White House also indicated that he did not intend to enter into negotiations with the Iranian leadership and cut off all current contacts.

• Separately, Trump commented on the Internet shutdown in Iran. He noted that billionaire Elon Musk, who owns Starlink, could help restore access to the network using his satellites. At the same time, Trump did not mention the possible reaction of the Iranian leadership to such a step.

How possible is a military strike

• Even before the protests in Iran took on their current scale and became one of the main events in the world, Trump also publicly announced a possible strike against Iran. In late December, he expressed concern that Tehran was taking steps to restore its nuclear capability and strengthen its ballistic missile program. Trump indicated that he would support Israel in attacking missile infrastructure if such a decision was made in Tel Aviv.

• In the last six months, Trump has already ordered the bombing of the Islamic Republic. During the June conflict between Iran and Israel (we talked about it in more detail here) The United States has launched airstrikes against nuclear facilities, including bunker buster bombs and long-range Tomahawk missiles. Iranian air defense facilities were also attacked. The U.S. involvement was the culmination of a military conflict that soon ended.

In his first term, Trump authorized military action against Iran. In 2020, he ordered an airstrike on General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Then Trump accused him of preparing an attack on one of the American embassies.

• All these events in the US administration were perceived from a military and political point of view as successful. The recent military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may give the White House additional encouragement to repeat the attacks on Iran (we discussed this situation here). Its quick and effective ending to some extent drowns out the voices in Trump's entourage who want to strictly follow the "America first" line and could oppose another round of escalation against Iran.

Why Trump may refuse to strike

• However, it is too early to perceive the threat of a strike as imminent. In addition to military action, the White House is considering other options for influencing the Iranian leadership. These include various cyber operations that can involve hacking government digital services and systems, as well as providing Internet access to protesters. Trump also has options for psychological campaigns against the ruling structures and state media on the table.

• Strikes may be opposed by the fact that in Iranian society they will be perceived not as a helping hand, but as a national threat. Military intervention in Iran's affairs may lead to the opposite goal: to rally the population and reduce anti-government protests to nothing. It is significant that during the June exchange of blows with Israel, the protest movement in the Islamic Republic subsided, which happens to it quite rarely.

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The Islamic Republic declared mourning for the dead

• The bombing of nuclear facilities has shown that this method has not allowed the United States to achieve its main long—term goal with regard to Iran - the conclusion of a nuclear deal. After such a step, Tehran did not at all seek to negotiate and offer compromises that would limit its nuclear program. New strikes will also not help the Iranian leadership to give up and abandon nuclear development.

Impact on the oil market

• Oil is an important factor that may influence the decision to strike. Iran holds a 3% share of global consumption, supplying about 3.3 million barrels per day to the market every day. Although Iranian oil is under Western sanctions, it still reaches its consumers, of which China is the main one. According to unofficial data, it buys up to 90% of Iran's oil, which goes to independent refineries.

China also actively bought oil from Venezuela, which, according to Trump, was one of the reasons for the operation to capture Maduro. So far, it is difficult to say that a possible US military intervention will be aimed precisely at undermining Iran's oil infrastructure, which largely ensures the export of the Iranian republic. However, it may become the subject of trade between Washington and Tehran. If Trump sees as his ultimate goal to reduce oil supplies to China in order to undermine its economy, then in the case of Iran it will not be possible to achieve this militarily.

Shifting grip: New US strikes on Iran could lead to war in the region

In response, Tehran may attack American bases in Israel, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

• Iran has a trump card in the form of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important channel for the supply of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf to world markets. About 13 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every day. Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have the ability to partially redirect these flows through alternative routes, they cannot completely abandon maritime supplies.

• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is hinted at in Tehran in the event of an escalation of any conflict situations in the region, will lead to a huge energy crisis. So far, this scenario has not been implemented, but even a minimal risk of closure leads to higher freight rates and spikes in oil prices. Already, since Trump's tightening rhetoric, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by 10%.